Member Info for fairdealer20

Graham Heath is a significant SH, is he going to shoot himself in the head?

Just over 4 years

Redbox how long have you been invested here?

Whilst suspended there should be NO transactions.
Questions need to be asked.

Exploration,
One suspects you know more about what is going on than our estemed Board!

and Boris could be accused of sponsoring obesity........quite a Joke.

Rubey you are like the Face of Janus. Only days ago very anti RBD 's proposition and yet continue to write acidic remarks here.

Why not ask Bramhill why so keen to takeover Deltic? If you get an answer maybe that will temper the disparaging comments posted.

"not given WN"

miker you know more than me, but as you must know Authorities in the area have given WN an easy ride. The likes of swampy is a spent force and to a degree an irrelevance. It is the conditions which have been applied that Authorities and particularly Locals will be watching. Although onshore, with advantages, WN does come with observable constraints.

Looks as though the Pandemic has encouraged a new and dynamic type of investor. Let's hope this self-centred approach adds to Company profits!

Mike you keep grumbling, of which I understand, but keep in mind why does MS continue to hold and makes clear his attitude towards a takeover. If he were to start offloading , that could be a cause for concern.

Exploration
As usual you write with clarity. We tend to agree on most things, and like some you included there is frustration in not being kept better informed by the BOD . As you rightly confirm the raising of funds at such an early time, the award of pay increases and the appointment of a CFO, has added to a belief the Executive act in a self serving manner.
Patience is always a necessity with these type of investments .

The RBD approach was cheeky to say the least and although I do'nt follow events at West Newton that closely, do know they are up against Environmental issues which may frustrate their progress.

Barchid

Stayed at the same motel

The experience was a bit like the Curate's Egg.

I'll start with the best part. The Breakfast team ( yes breakfasts were on this time), were helpful cheerful, attentive and wearing masks. On the contary the Receptionist on Friday night was anything but friendly, remained sedantry and when presented with my confirmation Booking email insisted on me giving my name. Presented my Privilege card but am not sure whether or not the discount was given ( will wait for my Visa statement). Used the electronic card to access the room, in separate block to Bar and restaurant , however even though kettle, cups etc were present NO tea, coffee, milk etc. Did not complain having just driven over 250 miles. Did understand later, the receptionist should have given a sealed bag with tea, coffee etc.
The first impression always sets the tone of the establishment even though the Breakfast team performed well, the receptionist gave me a bad impression.
If, as promised, Marstons are to provide Operational Excellence, serious staff training must happen, focusing on Customer care particularly Front of House staff.
Given the motel is in a good location and a Friday night I estimate the Bar and Restaurant was no more than 40% occupied and outside tables possibly 50% occupied. I asked staff on Saturday morning how trade is since re-opening, answer "slow but we are getting there"

In regards Tenancy arrears, aware as you state overdue rents etc have been bundled together up to the end of year 2018.

There can be no doubt that number is going to explode during the current year, we are unlikely to know precise figures until year end accounts are published. Had hoped Hoolicat may have been able to give us a clue? I will continue to dig but am under no illusion the numbers will be revealed yet.

I do not know but it is conceivable disagreements are ongoing between Landlords and Marstons regarding payment of Beer tipped down the drain. This in itself brings up another very important liabililty...alcohol tax. HMRC require payment of Alcohol Tax at point of manufacture when Bottled or Casked and not at point of sale as some think. Am pretty sure HM Gov have granted a tax holiday which means at some point the Tax will be payable as will other Taxes . The latter element will effect most if not all Trading company's many will have used these funds to survive, hope Marstons have it locked away.

A lot of bad and potential bad news is priced in, however I suspect there are other nasties lurking.

Mike we have shared concerns regarding the way this company is being managed. I have made my intentions known.

If you believe RBD is so much better why not buy in there?

Hoolicat’s contribution is particularly interesting and although total collapse is possible it does emphasise how debt could overwhelm Marstons.
Hoolicat made mention of the Pub business bleeding cash, it would be interesting to know how the company is handling Tenancy Arrears and it’s level?

AIMO DYOR

With apologies to the Bulls.

Have just returned from a trip to the Midlands where I did stay at a Marston’s Motel, more of that later.

Have caught up with the many interesting posts.
The whole market is still in uncertainty, COVID 19 is not going away in a hurry and the hope a vaccine will arrive needs to be considered with caution. The annual Flu virus mutates and from what I am hearing COVID mutates at an alarming rate.
Lockdown has damaged the economy beyond recognition, easing of rules is NOT being observed, many believe too hell with it I am going to enjoy myself. These are ignorant to the damage this socially selfish attitude is having on society and the economy generally. Many socially responsible people are afraid to go out, for obvious reasons.

Comparitors are being made between Australia and the US. Just look over the Tasman where New Zealand enforced a total lockdown/lockout and their situation is clear for all too see. We cannot turn the clock back but severe pain for a short period would have been worthwhile to then emerge in a stronger position rather than the prolonged hiatus we seem to be in. Too many on furlough have a good excuse with COVID, too not return too work convinced the Government will keep them.

As stated many, many weeks ago there is worse to come in Markets.
The hospitality sector is being seriously impacted, those with healthy reserves are going to survive and pick up cheap assets.
Having sold the Brewing business in it’s entirety for £250m in April 2019, Fullers were able to return a special dividend to Shareholders, and have recently acquired a group of Prestigous Hotels. Fullers still have a healthy balance sheet and make it plain, are on the lookout for further Quality Hotels/Pubs.
At the moment Whitbread have a healthy balance sheet, having recently raised £1b through a RI, and it is an open secret are in acquisitive mood.
These 2 companys demonstrate the benefit in having relatively low borrowings.

Marstons expect to receive £239m in Q4 which will pay down debt currently over £1.3b.
Then according to the Company’s mission statement, the Strategy is to focus o Operational Excellence within the Pub and Accommodation business, plus further debt reduction.
Too achieve Operational Excellence will require funding. It is difficult to predict levels of profit from the JV which will satisfy this requirement. This leaves Asset disposal and or Additional funding.
Asset disposal under the terms of the JV could be Marston’s Achilles Heel, but could be part of the solution.
Raising funds through a Rights, may be unpopular but it may be the only untapped resource which enable the BOD to deliver on it’s strategy. Having pulled capital works in July 2019 and now committing £90m this year for Enhancement/Capital works , shareholders should be asking where is the money coming from?
Remember the company have £350m loans due for repayment in 2023.
contd

Yes it will be easier to get a positive vote as the tax pool is important, however faced with something rather than nought Toscana holders would be cutting off their noses to spite their faces.

It seems clear the basic structure of the JV is not properly understood.
In return for Marstons transferring ALL it's brewing and distribution facilities it will recieve a Total of £273m ( £34m of which is withheld and payed in 1 year when agreed conditions are met).
Marstons will then own 40% of the Newly created Company, CMBC ( Carlsberg Marstons Brewing Company)

There are other conditions which if breached can give , in particular, Carlsberg an opportunity to enforce pre-determined actions, which could damage Marstons. Clearly that is an extreme situation but the possibilty is there. Make no mistake Carlsberg are no push over, just look at their previous JV agreements.

Toscana shareholders will be mad to reject however agrieved they maybe, something is better than nothing, not forgetting we own the entire debt book of Toscana. A forced takeover could occur which cancels any equity held by Toscana Holders.

Longlad I have been relatively quiet on this board these last several weeks, basically having vented my spleen on the activities or rather inactivities of our BOD. I did speak with Camarco some months ago, afraid to say the words were fine but subsequent actions have not materialised. I get the feeling we have an inactive Board who have lost motivation, in a word or 2, don't know what to do except sit in the Office or home, twiddling their thumbs.
How the position of CFO was justified is a mystery. Is she just counting the reciepts and payments on an abacus? One would hope the £13+m at bank is being utlised to achieve some income/capital growth, but in truth I have doubts.

As already stated am agast at how Major Holders are supportive of the BOD. Is it a job for Pals or do Major holders know something we do not?