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Remember NatWest update tomorrow as well. If their numbers are as positive as Barclays’ then an upturn could begin sooner than some on here seem to think?

If markets were logical it would!

Another roller coaster day for GROW investors no doubt. I suppose it’s positive that the revised NAV is more realistic than “929p” ? My main take is the great reported improvement in H2 compared to H1 - “stabilisation” added to “realisations exceeding new investments in the second half of the year”. I guess this indicates a more cautious investment environment as you’d expect. Wonder how the realised assets’ prices compared to what was on the books???

40% weighted revenue growth seems decent under the circumstances, albeit lower than previously.

Have topped up my hopelessly underwater holding this morning on today’s drop. So I’m keen to see what the FT article concludes … I’m not an FT subscriber … the title is “Are venture capital funds about to lift off?” And I’d bet a pound the answer is “perhaps” !!!

So, when employment figures are good, the economy is overheating and the expected Fed reaction pushes markets down. But when the opposite happens … markets still go down because forecasts are gloomy. We have no chance!!

For the record I’m no longer invested here, but I still pop in once in a while without posting. For an example this very day of a company issuing such an RNS, look at the one DGI9 released today. States no known reason for SP dropping by 25% recently … SP recovered by 6% today.

From the BBC just now. Sentiment being how it is, this might bump up the SP … unless it doesn’t!!

Several of the world's largest oil exporters have announced surprise cuts in production in a move which is expected to push up prices.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq and several Gulf states said they were cutting output to support market stability.
Oil prices soared when Russia invaded Ukraine, but are now back at levels seen before the conflict began.

However, the US has been calling for producers to increase output in order to push energy prices lower.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65157555

I’ve learnt to remain cautious whenever GROW announces “good” news, but the successful funding rounds for three of its holdings at suitable valuations in a difficult environment seems positive. One day the discount might even dip below 60% (!)

I’ve got rhythm.

Thanks for taking the time to transcribe all that, I bet it wasn’t easy! Such confidence and optimism will Alexis remind me of Open Orphan presentations from a few years ago (shudder!) but I think from this SP level we can be reasonably sure of a positive 12-24 months. The maintained dividend and debt repayment are really positive for shareholders.

Swiss banking giant UBS on Sunday offered to buy its embattled rival Credit Suisse for up to $1 billion, according to the Financial Times, citing four people with direct knowledge of the situation.

The deal, which the FT said could be signed as early as Sunday evening, values Credit Suisse at around $7 billion less than its market value at Friday’s close.

The FT said UBS had offered a price of 0.25 Swiss francs ($0.27) a share to be paid in UBS stock. Credit Suisse shares ended Friday at 1.86 Swiss francs. The fast-moving nature of the negotiations means the terms of any end deal could be different from those reported.

Credit Suisse is reportedly balking at the offer, however, arguing it is too low and would hurt shareholders and employees, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg.

Credit Suisse and UBS declined to comment on the reports when contacted by CNBC.

Swiss authorities are also reportedly considering full or partial nationalization of the bank as an alternative to the UBS takeover, according to a Sunday Bloomberg report.

The UBS deal is being orchestrated quickly, so the Swiss are preparing for the case that it falls through, Bloomberg said, citing people with knowledge of the matter. The country is reportedly considering whether it would take over the bank completely or hold a significant equity stake.
I’m
The UBS offer comes after Credit Suisse shares logged their worst weekly decline since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, despite an announcement that it would access a loan of up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion) from the Swiss central bank.

It had already been battling a string of losses and scandals, and last week sentiment was rocked again with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the shuttering of Signature Bank in the U.S., sending shares sliding.

Credit Suisse’s scale and potential impact on the global economy is much greater than the U.S. banks. The Swiss bank’s balance sheet is around twice the size of Lehman Brothers when it collapsed, at around 530 billion Swiss francs as of end-2022. It is also far more globally inter-connected, with multiple international subsidiaries — making an orderly management of Credit Suisse’s situation even more important.

Credit Suisse lost around 38% of its deposits in the fourth quarter of 2022, and revealed in its delayed annual report early last week that outflows have still yet to reverse. It reported a full-year net loss of 7.3 billion Swiss francs for 2022 and expects a further “substantial” loss in 2023.

The bank had previously announced a massive strategic overhaul in a bid to address these chronic issues, with current CEO and Credit Suisse veteran Ulrich Koerner taking over in July.

This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Buy Aviva, L&G and rivals as 'no such things as a run on an insurer' - analysts
15:09 Thu 16 Mar 2023
Oliver Haill
View
Aviva PLC
LSE:AV.
Aviva PLC -

"Insurers are not banks" and the share price falls in Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.), Just Group PLC (LSE:JUST), Legal & General Group PLC (LSE:LGEN), M&G PLC (LSE:MNG) and Phoenix Group Holdings PLC (LSE:PHNX) following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SBC) are "a buying opportunity", according to analysts at RBC.

Since the collapse of SVB, this group of UK annuity writers has seen particularly large share price falls, in sync with those in the banking sector.

The European insurance sector fell 10% since the close last Thursday, RBC noted.

The analysts said "insurers and banks are fundamentally different" and the circumstances that sparked the SVB's collapse "simply could not occur at an insurer".

"We see the reduction in share prices as a buying opportunity and we highlight the UK annuity writers as attractive at current valuation levels, with all outperforming earnings expectations at FY22 results."

RBC reckons the annuity writers "should benefit from the rapid acceleration in the bulk annuity opportunity, a slowdown in future longevity improvements, and Solvency II reform".

As banks only keep a small proportion of their assets as cash, bank runs can start from mere doubts that a bank may be in trouble, which leads to customers withdrawing their money.

The analysts added that "there is no such thing as a run on an insurer", noting that insurers provide protection against risk, so customers pay in premiums, which insurers put into reserves.

The analysts stressed that the basis of insurance is about sharing risk, so customers who claim are subsidised by those who do not, whereas for banks a customer can choose to withdraw their deposit at any time.

With annuities, the analysts noted, the insurer "knows exactly what it needs to pay out" from week to week, which are recorded as its liabilities.

"The only thing that can go wrong is if the annuitants live too long (and this risk is currently going the other way). Even if that were to happen, it is not a near term risk.

"To meet these liabilities, the insurer invests in a portfolio of assets which would provide the right amount of cash flow at the right time. The only thing that could go wrong here is if one of the assets defaults.

"Assets and liabilities are exactly matched (by duration, by currency, by inflation, and by interest rates) and little can impact either. To provide a safety net, insurers are required to hold very large capital buffers, which are at all-time highs.

"While bank customers can choose to withdraw their deposits there is no ability for an annuitant to withdraw."

Recent Daily Wealth article. A more cheerful view maybe.

One of the worst crashes in history is happening. But no one seems to be paying attention.

There's a good reason for it. And that's because certain market crashes put our daily lives into a tailspin...

A 50% stock market crash generally happens when economic calamity is underway. And if your home's value crashes, a big chunk of your savings disappears.

Those crashes make headlines. But we brush others under the rug... because sometimes lower prices are a thing to celebrate.

The energy markets are a clear example. Lower oil and gas prices might hurt the companies producing those commodities... But for consumers' wallets, it's a big win.

That's why the absolute devastation in the natural gas market has gone mostly unnoticed.

It's the worst crash ever recorded by one measure. But history shows it won't last forever. Instead, a 40%-plus rise is likely from here.

Let me explain...

The war in Ukraine passed the one-year mark in recent weeks. Energy prices were rising before the war began. But it became a catalyst for even higher prices.

Oil jumped well over $100 a barrel. And natural gas prices quickly doubled... hitting a 14-year high along the way.

The situation has taken a dramatic turn, though. Natural gas prices have fallen as much as 79% since peaking last August. And they're now well below even prewar prices. Take a look...

This decline has been wild. Prices have dropped by more than 50% since December... something few would have thought possible given the situation with Russia.

To put the fall in context, we'll look to history...

First, I examined all of the rolling six-month moves for natural gas since 1990.

According to that measure, natural gas prices dropped 70% over the past six months. And that's the largest six-month decline we've ever seen.

Of course, what matters today is what happens next. To see it, I narrowed the field to 50%-plus six-month declines. They've happened six other times to date. And natural gas outperformed in the following years. Check it out...

Natural gas prices have pretty much stayed flat for the past 33 years. The typical annual gain has only been 0.5% since 1990.

At the same time, this is a highly volatile commodity. There are massive ups and downs along the way. And this decline proves it.

But history shows that even the worst crashes don't last forever...

Natural gas was typically flat for six months after similar instances. But a year later, the commodity was up nearly 24%. And two years later, that gain ballooned to 42%.

We know for certain that natural gas prices will continue to be volatile from here. But according to history, betting that the recent crash will continue isn't a smart move.

Instead, a multiyear move higher is likely on the way. So if you're invested in the energy sector, it's not time to give up yet. The gains of recent years can continue...

Good investing,

Br

Don’t forget NatWest. Goes ex-dividend tomorrow for 10p (4%). Not that this stopped it being -5% today for no tangible reason!!

I’ve certainly been adding in recent days. Looks like we might even test the 215p level we got to before. Didn’t think we’d ever go there again. Absolutely barmy. Ironically the Budget looks like chucking lots more money into pensions. Market plainly ignoring that, focussing on the collapse of badly run US banks instead. From the BBC:

The total amount that workers can accumulate in their pension savings before paying extra tax is expected to be increased in Wednesday's Budget.
The final figure has not been confirmed, but people are expected to be able to save up to £1.8m over a lifetime, up from £1.07m currently.
The policy aims to stop people - particularly doctors - from reducing hours or retiring early owing to tax.
Critics say the move will only benefit a small fraction of the workforce.
UK economic growth has flatlined in recent months and the Bank of England expects the UK to enter a recession this year. About a quarter of people of working-age - around 10 million people - do not have jobs.
Persuading workers to work for longer is part of UK plans to boost growth, with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's Wednesday announcement on tax and spending being dubbed the "Back to work Budget".
Mr Hunt is also expected to detail other measures to increase the workforce on Wednesday including:
Parents on universal credit to receive childcare funding upfront, instead of having to claim it back.
An increase in the UK-wide £646-a-month per child cap on support for universal credit claimants
Fitness-to-work tests for those with medical conditions.
Raising the amount that someone over 55 who has already accessed their private pension can put into their pension to £10,000 a year from £4,000.

Banking regulators devised a plan Sunday to shore up deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, a critical step in stemming a feared panic over the collapsed tech-focused institution.

In an anxiously awaited announcement from the Federal Reserve, the central bank said it is creating a new Bank Term Funding Program aimed at safeguarding deposits at the failed institution.

The facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

The news came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday morning that there would be no SVB bailout.

“We’re not going to do that again. But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs,” Yellen said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

The SVB failure was the nation’s largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008.

There also has been discussion about the Fed stepping in to ease terms at its discount window so that impacted institutions have easy access to liquidity. In concept, banks could pledge bonds to get cash to pay nervous depositors.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

I just posted this latest CNBC news on the GROW thread where it’s particularly important, but it may settle a few nerves in here too?

Banking regulators devised a plan Sunday to shore up deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, a critical step in stemming a feared panic over the collapsed tech-focused institution.

In an anxiously awaited announcement from the Federal Reserve, the central bank said it is creating a new Bank Term Funding Program aimed at safeguarding deposits at the failed institution.

The facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

The news came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday morning that there would be no SVB bailout.

“We’re not going to do that again. But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs,” Yellen said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

The SVB failure was the nation’s largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008.

There also has been discussion about the Fed stepping in to ease terms at its discount window so that impacted institutions have easy access to liquidity. In concept, banks could pledge bonds to get cash to pay nervous depositors.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Sorry, to add that the quote I just pasted was from CNBC.

Breaking glass. I mean news.

Banking regulators devised a plan Sunday to shore up deposits at Silicon Valley Bank, a critical step in stemming a feared panic over the collapsed tech-focused institution.

In an anxiously awaited announcement from the Federal Reserve, the central bank said it is creating a new Bank Term Funding Program aimed at safeguarding deposits at the failed institution.

The facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. Those taking advantage of the facility will be asked to pledge high-quality collateral such as Treasurys, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.

The news came after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday morning that there would be no SVB bailout.

“We’re not going to do that again. But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs,” Yellen said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

The SVB failure was the nation’s largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008.

There also has been discussion about the Fed stepping in to ease terms at its discount window so that impacted institutions have easy access to liquidity. In concept, banks could pledge bonds to get cash to pay nervous depositors.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Difficult to find any real negatives in there. In particular there was no NWG-style “gloomy outlook” (their share price was -9% at 278p on recent results day, great trading opportunity!)

But who knows what this ludicrous market will do from one day to the next?!

Molten Ventures (LON:GROW – Get Rating)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by stock analysts at Berenberg Bank in a report released on Tuesday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. They presently have a GBX 900 ($10.84) price objective on the stock. Berenberg Bank’s price target indicates a potential upside of 145.23% from the stock’s current price.

Molten Ventures Price Performance
Molten Ventures stock opened at GBX 367 ($4.42) on Tuesday. Molten Ventures has a 12 month low of GBX 239.80 ($2.89) and a 12 month high of GBX 820 ($9.87). The company has a current ratio of 4.37, a quick ratio of 4.37 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.97. The business’s 50 day simple moving average is GBX 377.31 and its 200 day simple moving average is GBX 366.33. The company has a market cap of £561.51 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of 196.26 and a beta of 1.33.