Member Info for extrader

Continued...

(10) The presentation format and focus (commercial/strategic demand; strong management team; robust (= exciting) economics ; and closing emphasis on ESG ) is v similar to ZIOC’s ‘pitch’.

The market seems to like it : after trundling along for most of last year to September at 0.075c or thereabouts, the s/p has since quadrupled.

Just my impressions. E and OE. Comments, additions and corrections invited!

ATB

PS Speaking of things Indian, Forbes’ rich-list has jsut been published : there's another Indian name already active in ZIOC’s ‘hood’ – Savitri JINDAL – at $35.5 billion India’s richest woman and chairperson of her late husband’s Jindal Group..which has its own ‘green steel’ ambitions in Africa and the M. East (Vulcan Oman, etc). Maybe another SP/I?

This Investor Presentation by Canyon (Mar 2025) is worth a read, IMO, for 'compare and contrast' purposes and for clues it may give about Gupta/Arise's risk appetite and intentions.

https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/cay/39105f8b-1d4.pdf.

(1) The project is up-country in Cameroon, which is on a par with C-B for corruption challenges ( ranked #140/180 countries vs C-B #150/180 countries in Transparency International's index).

Australia's Sundance Resources is litigating against both countries for expropriation of its mining interests straddling the Cameroon/Congo border (M'Balam- Nabeba).

(2) Paul Biya is 92, even older than Big Den (81), has been in power even longer (continuous since 1982), both are autocratic/kleptocratic and neither has an evident succession plan.

(3) The Canyon project is for the exploitation of a large resource of high-quality bauxite, only 10% covered by the current plan (cf ZIOC's 25/47Km of resource mapped).

China is 60% of global bauxite demand, but the market is 70% dependent on supply from Guinea, so Canyon appears to be in a stronger commercial position than ZIOC with its 'green ore' (assuming DRI tests are +ve).

(4) Its infrastructure challenges seem more straightforward : a short distance by road from mine to (existing, but needing upgraded rolling stock) railway to transhipment port or - eventually- dedicated port terminal.

(5) Canyon is earlier in the Project implementation phase than ZIOC (the ESAI is done, but it's awaiting Mining Permit and Mining Convention signature.

It has an aggressive timeline and may be an example of how ZIOC MIGHT have progressed post IPO had the iron ore market not collapsed when it did/GLEN not ousted Xstrata as J/V partner/driver.

(6) As a simple strip operation – no drilling or blasting – and infrastructure mostly in place, Canyon targets first ore in 2026 and ramp up over the next 5 years (you could say that it’s a glorified version of ZIOC’s on-again/off-again EPP plan?)

(7) It’s a much smaller project (capex USD 253m incl rolling stock), its BFS key data (2022, awaiting update), show :

Nominal production rate 6.4Mtpa

Project pre-tax NPV8 US$452m NOTE : NPV 8%]

Project Development Capital US$253m

Payback period 4.1yrs

IRR 22%

(8) The current project is only Phase 1, to be followed quickly by ..’a Synergetic greenfield project to further integrate bauxite from Minim Martap : c.1m MT p.a. refinery plant to be established at mine head to produce smelter grade alumina destined for export and local consumption…”.

(9) C-B will likely be interested in seeing what ARISE plans to do in the PN SEZ (a pelletisation plant?)…and is sure to note that Cameroon’s 10% ‘free carry’ has a shoe-horn provision to up to 25%...

Continued.....

Continued...

(10) The presentation format and focus (commercial/strategic demand; strong management team; robust (= exciting) economics ; and closing emphasis on ESG ) is v similar to ZIOC’s ‘pitch’.

The market seems to like it : after trundling along for most of last year to September at 0.075c or thereabouts, the s/p has since quadrupled.

Just my impressions. E and OE. Comments, additions and corrections invited!

ATB

PS Speaking of things Indian, Forbes’ rich-list has jsut been published : there's another Indian name already active in ZIOC’s ‘hood’ – Savitri JINDAL – at $35.5 billion India’s richest woman and chairperson of her late husband’s Jindal Group..which has its own ‘green steel’ ambitions in Africa and the M. East (Vulcan Oman, etc). Maybe another SP/I?

This Investor Presentation by Canyon (Mar 2025) is worth a read, IMO, for 'compare and contrast' purposes and for clues it may give about Gupta/Arise's risk appetite and intentions.

https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/cay/39105f8b-1d4.pdf.

(1) The project is up-country in Cameroon, which is on a par with C-B for corruption challenges ( ranked #140/180 countries vs C-B #150/180 countries in Transparency International's index).

Australia's Sundance Resources is litigating against both countries for expropriation of its mining interests straddling the Cameroon/Congo border (M'Balam- Nabeba).

(2) Paul Biya is 92, even older than Big Den (81), has been in power even longer (continuous since 1982), both are autocratic/kleptocratic and neither has an evident succession plan.

(3) The Canyon project is for the exploitation of a large resource of high-quality bauxite, only 10% covered by the current plan (cf ZIOC's 25/47Km of resource mapped).

China is 60% of global bauxite demand, but the market is 70% dependent on supply from Guinea, so Canyon appears to be in a stronger commercial position than ZIOC with its 'green ore' (assuming DRI tests are +ve).

(4) Its infrastructure challenges seem more straightforward : a short distance by road from mine to (existing, but needing upgraded rolling stock) railway to transhipment port or - eventually- dedicated port terminal.

(5) Canyon is earlier in the Project implementation phase than ZIOC (the ESAI is done, but it's awaiting Mining Permit and Mining Convention signature.

It has an aggressive timeline and may be an example of how ZIOC MIGHT have progressed post IPO had the iron ore market not collapsed when it did/GLEN not ousted Xstrata as J/V partner/driver.

(6) As a simple strip operation – no drilling or blasting – and infrastructure mostly in place, Canyon targets first ore in 2026 and ramp up over the next 5 years (you could say that it’s a glorified version of ZIOC’s on-again/off-again EPP plan?)

(7) It’s a much smaller project (capex USD 253m incl rolling stock), its BFS key data (2022, awaiting update), show :

Nominal production rate 6.4Mtpa

Project pre-tax NPV8 US$452m NOTE : NPV 8%]

Project Development Capital US$253m

Payback period 4.1yrs

IRR 22%

(8) The current project is only Phase 1, to be followed quickly by ..’a Synergetic greenfield project to further integrate bauxite from Minim Martap : c.1m MT p.a. refinery plant to be established at mine head to produce smelter grade alumina destined for export and local consumption…”.

(9) C-B will likely be interested in seeing what ARISE plans to do in the PN SEZ (a pelletisation plant?)…and is sure to note that Cameroon’s 10% ‘free carry’ has a shoe-horn provision to up to 25%...

Continued.....

Good Q!

In a rush, so this - from copilot - may need checking :

Q: What percentage of shares is needed to take a uk listed co private...and is that total of votes on the day or total of shareholdings ?

A: To take a UK-listed company private, the percentage of shares required depends on the method used:

Scheme of Arrangement: This is a court-approved process requiring at least 75% of the votes cast by shareholders present and voting at the meeting. This percentage is based on the votes on the day, not the total shareholding.

Takeover Offer: If a bidder acquires more than 90% of the shares, they can compulsorily acquire the remaining shares to take full ownership. This threshold is based on the total shareholding, not just the votes on the day.

Sources : resourcehub.bakermckenzie.com and www.addleshawgoddard.com

AIUI, ZIOC says that it follows UK rules, not BVI on these matters.

DYOR, NAI etc etc

Canyon is in Cameroon...

https://fortunaholdings.net/investment

.."Canyon Resources

Canyon Resources (ASX: CAY) is a bauxite resource development and exploration company focused on expediting the development of its flagship Minim Martap Project in Cameroon, through its 100%-owned in-country subsidiary Camalco SA.

The Minim Martap Project is a globally significant very-high grade direct shipping ore opportunity located in central Cameroon. The Project is backed by a positive Bankable Feasibility Study for an initial 20 years of mining, which is based on JORC certified reserves of 108.91 MT grading 51.1% Al2O3 and 2% SiO2. These reserves are a subset from a total mineral resource of 1,027 MT grading 45.3% Al2O3 and 2.7% SiO2 (reported at a cut-off grade of 35% Al2O3). The 20-year mining schedule represents only 10.6% of the current resources and technical studies have identified opportunities for significant future increase in production tonnages. The Project will produce up to 6.4 MT of very-high grade bauxite per annum..."

ATB

It's Gupta's/Arises vehicle : his holding is 83,333,333 and there's a Gaurav Gupta on the board of Canyon, see

https://www.craincurrency.com/investing/eagle-eye-asset-holdings-singapore-based-family-office-takes-big-stake-canyon-resources

.."Eagle Eye Asset Holdings, a Singapore-based family office, recently increased its investment in Canyon Resources, a bauxite mining company.

The $24.7 million investment now gives it a 40% share of the Australian company — whose main asset is Minim Martap, a site that contains over a billion tons of high-grade bauxite, though it still awaits a mining permit, reports MiningNews.net. In total, EEA has invested $70 million in the miner; and its manager, Gaurav Gupta, will be appointed to the board of Canyon.

A June 2022 feasibility study projected that the plan would cost $250 million and result in annual cash flows of $78 million..."

AFAICS.

Per Little Den :

"Minister Denis

@ChristelSassou

Nguesso was heard this Monday, March 31 at the National Assembly on the draft cooperation agreement between the Republic of #Congo and the Federation of #Russie , relating to the construction of the oil pipeline linking Pointe-Noire, Loutété and Maloukou-Tréchot, a strategic infrastructure which aims to strengthen the transport of hydrocarbons on the national territory and to optimize the country's energy logistics.

During this session, the Honorable Members of Parliament expressed several concerns, including the estimated cost and duration of the project, its financing arrangements, the structure of the joint venture responsible for its implementation, and its environmental impact. Other questions concerned the project's governance structure and the precise role of the Congolese government in its supervision and operation.

['C'est une grande question....et qui est difficile']

The minister provided detailed answers to these various questions and highlighted the strategic importance of the pipeline for the national economy. He also emphasized the need for an effective governance framework and rigorous project management, while ensuring compliance with environmental standards."

Yes, but : what's actually happening, M le Ministre?

Https://www.mining-journal.com/miners/news-analysis/4411775/caml-plans-extend-production

GLA

.."we had all better start buying now before the free float disappears..."

If you think about it (I know, I know...) most of the regulars will, by definition, have already bought; the departed/disenchanted MIGHT buy back in - 'when the facts change, etc...'; the ones most invested emotionally are likely the newbies.....who tend to be pretty fickle.

For various reasons, previously explained, the 'free float' has always likely been pretty small.

One thing's for sure : Elphick...and likely the new investors - will be watching the register like hawks.

AIUI

Allenby's position must be getting a bit tricky : if there's unusual or significant movement in a company's share price (as we've seen today), the company's Nomad (Nominated Adviser) usually issues a "speeding ticket."

This requires the company to confirm whether it is aware of any undisclosed information that could explain the volatility.

Companies are expected to make timely disclosures under the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). If the share price movement is significant and unexplained, the company may need to issue a statement to clarify the situation and ensure transparency..."

Maybe Some Kind Person could ask Allenby if THEY'RE aware of 'any reason'?

Just a thought...

GLA

And this week's update

.."Argentina: Federico Furiase, board member of Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) said analysis on the impact of the new USD 20bn International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme should focus on the central bank getting a capitalisation of the same amount and should not be netting out future IMF payments, according to comments made in an interview with the TV channel A24. The size of the programme was announced by Finance Minister Luis Caputo, but not yet confirmed by the IMF.

Furiase, who is part of Caputo's inner circle, said what really matters here is there will be a new USD 20bn coming into the BCRA's reserves, which will significantly strengthen the central bank's balance sheet. Furiase gave assurances this will power the disinflation process, help keep foreign exchange (FX) markets steady, and lead to further decline in country risk."

GLA

I've emailed Simon Lambert, Editor, cc to Andrew Trahar.

Let's see what happens.

GLA

Hi Jiving.

This is inexcusable of Lyall : I wrote to proactive on the 26th March thusly :

.."I've written to Proactive :

.."Article states : "Based on the updated feasibility study from April 2024, the Zanaga project already boasts an estimated after-tax NPV of between $1.9 billion and $3.8 billion, assuming a benchmark iron ore price of $115 per tonne. "

This is a major error. The 4/2024 updated FS shows an NPV for Phase 1 of $3.7 Billion and for Phase 2 of $ 7.4 Billion.

With > $4 Bn enhancements targeted, the new uplift would mean a doubling of current Phase1 NPV and 150% of current Phase2 NPV.

The error is a substantial understatement of the very material target enhancement value.

Grateful if you would correct the article."

I wonder whether there's bad blood between Lyall and ZIOC over his 'outing' of the 'insider source' for his article last year...?

I'll re-send, with a SECOND request for a correction...

ATB

.."I am entitled to have a say here ......"

Of course you are. But you don't 'say' anything...other than 'what about? ....what about?...yes, but..?

I've invited you to engage in a constructive conversation, from which we can all benefit.

You maintain the 'odds are against'.

They may well be.

I've mentioned 5 concerns, arithmetically (to support your thesis) you should be able to come up with up to 4 reasons for.

Yet you seem curiously unable to do that .

Whatever the opposite of 'confirmation bias' is, you seem to have it in spades.

An articulate negative invites/encourages me to re-examine the issue and see (my confirmation bias !) what I've missed - or what mitigants there are. Which would be my version of 'yes, but..'

As to what you find 'fun', I'm reminded of the Bill Shankly comment about football :

'It's hardly a matter of life or death.

It's more serious than that'.

.."If we were that far down the line with the Chinese in September 2023, how far advanced are we now?.."

Good point.

And - given the strategic and commercial importance of this project- I could imagine that the Chinese Gov may have provided 'seed capital' or a 'venture capital overdraft' for PSEI to do this work further/faster than whatever payment rate ZIOC's own cashflow has allowed for.

Wouldn't you, in the circs?

In the scheme of things, a pittance.

Just IMO.

Re (2) - the potential application of BOO finance for the pipeline, I asked Co-Pilot (yes, it's catching !) the following :

Q : Would a COMMERCIAL PIPELINE FOR THE LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT OF ORE SLURRY be compatible with and attractive to Islamic finance. If so, under what Islamic instrument (s)?

A : "A commercial pipeline for the logistics and transport of ore slurry could indeed be compatible with Islamic finance principles, as long as it adheres to Shariah guidelines. Islamic finance emphasizes asset-backed transactions, risk-sharing, and ethical investments, making infrastructure projects like pipelines potentially attractive.

The most suitable Islamic finance instrument for such a project might be Sukuk (Islamic bonds). Sukuk are asset-backed securities that link the revenue generated by the infrastructure asset (in this case, the pipeline) to the returns for investors. This structure aligns with Shariah principles by ensuring that the investment is tied to tangible assets and lawful activities.

Alternatively, Istisna (a contract for manufacturing or construction) could be used during the development phase of the pipeline. Istisna allows for financing the construction of an asset, with payments made in installments as the project progresses. Once operational, the pipeline could transition to an Ijarah (leasing) structure, where investors earn returns through lease payments.

These instruments provide flexibility and align well with the ethical and tangible nature of Islamic finance."

I could well imagine that- depending on consortium participants - folk might not want to leave too much physical and legal control of the key 'route to market' to the Chinese (who are also likely main product buyer).

[For BOTS - look! ANOTHER risk/negative. Where are your 4 positives?

Time to 'concede and refute' - or just concede, it seems to me.]

For everyone else : If Islamic finance is indeed an option, this opens up another liquidity pool as potential lenders to the Project.

Time will tell.

GLA

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for identifying Shaun as the source of those two 'domestic' links.

I re-translated using DeepL, which gave a slightly friendlier translation, maybe worth repeating the key bits:

From http://www.psei.cn/news/230.html

.."On 23rd May, 2024, the promotion meeting for the development of Zanaga iron ore project was held ...in Beijing.

Zanaga Iron Ore Project ... includes mining, ore processing, 360km pipeline project, port construction and industrial and auxiliary engineering. Pace, as the general lead design institute, HAS COMPLETED THE BANK-LEVEL FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE PROJECT.

The investment promotion meeting attracted MORE THAN TEN large CENTRAL [ie State-Owned] enterprises and listed companies in China to participate, and all parties are very active and attached great importance to the project INVESTMENT and FINANCING. ..."

From http://www.psei.cn/news/237.html

The bit you posted :

.."Kunming Pace Mineral Processing Department actively explores the technology and market of roller mill dry separation.... At the beginning of the year, we completed a BANK-LEVEL FEASIBILITY STUDY UPDATE and conceptual design for a large-scale iron ore mine abroad, which boosted the owner's confidence and helped the project advancement, and the FEED DESIGN OF THE BENEFICIATION PLANT AND PIPELINE WILL BE CARRIED OUT IN 2025, and the supporting COLD-SOLIDIFIED PELLETISATION TECHNOLOGY has been RECOGNISED [ does this mean 'patented'.... or 'approved/accepted'...or something else? ] by the owner, and the FEASIBILITY STUDY AND DESIGN OF THE PELLETISATION PLANT will be COMPLETED BY PACE AS WELL.

Two other snippets :

(1) The 'Pace'/PSEI technology has market acceptance:

..."The feasibility study and design of the beneficiation plant of a project in Brazil has been basically completed, and the verification test is underway, and it is expected that all the work will be completed in 2025..."

and

(2) There MAY be scope for further reduction in Capex (willing seller/willing buyer) if THIS initiative is replicated :

.."Pace AND PARTNERS set up a CONSORTIUM, INVESTMENT, construction, OPERATION of Hebei Iron and Steel Group Leting Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. 7.5-10 million tonnes per year of IRON ORE CONCENTRATE PIPELINE TRANSPORT BOO [Build/Own/Operate] project - pipeline distance of 70km- the completion of the construction phase in the near future, the project is expected to February 2025 with the mine test run. THIS PROJECT IS THE WORLD'S FIRST THIRD-PARTY INVESTED COMMERCIAL PIPELINE FOR THE LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORT OF ORE SLURRY."

Indirectly related, giving a sense of the ZIOC Project potential scale, this from

https://ausenco.com/projects/minas-rio-iron-concentrate-pipeline-system/

.."The project created 12,500 full-time jobs and hired more than 20,000 workers at the peak of construction, ..."

Let's hope that some at least are locals.

ATB

Hi beardozer,

Thanks for the feedback!

I use the discussion boards here and on lse somewhat selfishly, to document my research on various co's, primarily for myself but also in the hope of having my understanding of a potential (and doubly so an actual !) investment challenged....which is also 'selfish' = self-interested in a way.

As Mark Twain famously said, 'It ain't what you don't know that gets you in trouble - it's the things you know for a fact that just aren't so'.

I have no problem with folk who are negative on a share - after all, we all have different life experiences, economic circumstances and attitude(s) to risk - but people who just say 'no', without engaging are - IMO - wasting their time: what's the point?

They're certainly wasting my time and not adding to the sum of human knowledge, much less happiness.

Normally I don't bother with such people (in extremis they can always be filtered if they're exclusively 'vexatious').

BOTS is a recent arrival and is mildly interesting as a classic 'yes, but' example (see Eric Berne's 'Games people play')..and I confess with some shame that I rather enjoy taking the p*ss out of his predictability, though it's a bit like shooting fish in a barrel, to be frank.

Eventually, one or other of us will get bored and the 'game' will end.

Enjoy your (lighter) Sunday evening!

Whilst you're thinking (?) about this, here's some background for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLAILRgq3Z4

Watch to the end.

The real world is more complicated than you think.