Member Info for extrader

International Investment conference kicks off in AUH today, until the 9th.

Macro : Africa has lots of natural resources; we have probs with inflation and slow growth...help !(I made up the last bit).

Big Den speaks of emphasis on water, electricity, infrastructure , electronics and ind as 'the ways forward'.

Mentions opportunities, partnerships, PN importance as 'Southern Africa's deepwater port' and our 'little exploited' mineral resources, including]in this order] IRON, potash, phosphate, polymetals, copper (?), lead, zinc, gold, diamonds, cassiterites (= tin) + oil and gas....

GLA

From Ashmore :

.."Vietnam: Despite low Vietnamese tariffs rates, Trump’s 46% “reciprocal” tariff on Vietnamese imports is among the highest of all countries, due to a USD 123.5bn trade deficit. In response, Vietnam's leader To Lam contacted Trump, offering to drop all tariffs on US goods and requesting a delay for negotiations.

Vietnam also intends to increase US goods purchases and diversify its markets..."

OK , It hasn't worked out so well with Philippines (yet), but does SRT have a presence/office/ branch in the US...?

'Asking for a friend'.

GLA

.."What's devious about holding a view that this company will take longer to fulfil its potential that others would try suggest differently.."

Nothing devious about holding an alternative view about something that's essentially 'unprovable' either way, save for the passage of time.

The case 'for' - basically, that GLEN's departure clears several impedimenta; and that the incomers are highly motivated, whether for ego, business or other reasons, to make a deal (of some kind) - has been made.

The case 'against' is essentially 'yes, but', with reference to the past. And - in the case of your ad hominem attacks - with reference to another company or companies.

And you know -or should know what they say about 'past performance'?

So no 'added value' there, either. And ad hominems are usually a sign that you haven't got a cogent argument to use instead.

What's devious -or odd - is that, having decided that nothing's going to happen for a while, you don't engage more productively elsewhere in the meantime ...and after a decent interval come back and say 'I told you so'.

.." It was underwhelming to claim your Dad is the new strategic investor..."

I wasn't there so can't say anything re content, context or delivery but -taken at face value - I'd have thought an endorsement from a former CEO and Chair at Anglo (with a public reputation to maintain) would on balance be positive, regardless of family connection.

In fact, for those of a cynical persuasion, coming from AT -credited by Elphick as architect of this deal alongside Marty - both of whom are named 'other investors' - I'd have thought it was a neat way of dealing with an otherwise potentially tricky allegation of favouritism or even insider dealing.

Especially if BSL turns out to be 'in the mix' somewhere.

Maybe I'm naive, but sometimes it makes sense to take people literally as well as seriously.

Famous last words!

GLA

Long substack article from Joe Lonsdale

hxxps://blog.joelonsdale.com/p/make-the-fda-great-again

Amongst many recommendations, several that are very HVO-friendly eg accelerated approvals via challenge studies, shorter timelines, streamlining approvals process etc.

All with a weather eye to the recent rapid growth in China's investment - and success - in the pharmaceuticals/biotech sector, esp re use of CRISPR etc

GLA

No position.

.."The Gupta/FMG angle is a good one particularly as they are partners in Belinga & FACE THE SAME PROBLEMS..."

I would say that it's a far bigger issue for Forrest/Fortescue.

Gupta, after all, has plenty of other fish to fry.

Forrest/Fortescue might be described as a 'two trick pony' - lots of mid-quality ore and green hydrogen- with the second maybe destined for the knacker's yard...and the first limping a bit, post the Belinga debacle.

This was how he's been describing Belinga b4 the Nguema manoeuvre:

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/ground-breakers-forrest-says-fortescues-african-iron-ore-will-blend-spectacularly-with-pilbara-output/

.."Australia’s Pilbara miners moving to set new records, while a new front in Africa is moving at a more certain pace than before after years of false dawns.

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG) highlighted the growth ambitions of the Pilbara set in its most recent quarterly results today, with its conventional iron ore business overshadowing its billionaire boss Andrew Forrest’s green energy dreams....

The development of Simandou with its 3.8Bt of iron ore resources at over 65% Fe has been long mooted as a potential killer to iron ore prices, with China putting the force of its largest steelmaker Baowu behind the mine to help get it developed.

But Forrest says FMG’s Belinga gambit will be designed to complement its lower grade hematite operations in WA, which look to be pushing towards a 200Mtpa runrate after a limitation on export capacity was lifted from 188Mt to 210Mt by the State Government.

He suggested Gabon’s anticipated higher grades would be used to create a blend or virtual blend in steel mills with its Pilbara ore.

“(Simandou is) kind of presented as a challenge and a threat to Australia and who knows, that it may be, but that’s not how we’re doing Gabon,” Forrest told media and analysts this morning.

“We’re seeing a BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP between Gabon and Australia, which is really great for both countries. That orebody has very high grade, that can really be IMPROVED [??} with the massive [BUT LOW QUALITY] orebodies which we have here in the Pilbara on a blended basis so that both countries win....

“We’re not developing Gabon, say – as we’ve heard speculated by the developers of Simandou – as a challenge or threat to Australia.

“We’re developing Gabon as an ABSOLUTE COMPLEMENT to the very large iron ore fields we have, different mineralogy to Gabon … the blend is spectacular and it is the strength of both countries and both orebodies which will lift them both.”

You have to admire his way with words ....real 'chutzpah' - anybody would think FMG's doing Gabon a favour!

And - in keeping with that- thanks for the reminder that FMG already has 'form' as a would be 'gate-crasher' at Simandou.

ATB

Https://skillings.net/zanaga-iron-ore-eyes-pelletising-plant-to-revive-2-billion-congo-project/

Mostly rehash of news, but interesting insights:

.."The Zanaga Iron Ore project, first studied in 2014, has languished in development limbo for nearly a decade due to infrastructure challenges, commodity cycles, AND SHAREHOLDER DISPUTES."

concludes

.." ZIOC is attempting to reframe the Zanaga project not just as a mining play, but as a long-term supplier to the green industrial economy. The construction of a pelletising plant—whether in Africa or the Gulf—could be the linchpin to unlocking that transition.

But success will hinge on financing, infrastructure, and geopolitical stability. With heavyweight investors now at the helm and strategic partners circling, Zanaga’s long-dormant iron ore deposit may finally be on the verge of becoming an active player in the low-carbon steel revolution."

I hope to drink to that!

GLA/ATB

Https://skillings.net/zanaga-iron-ore-eyes-pelletising-plant-to-revive-2-billion-congo-project/

Mostly rehash of news, but interesting insights:

.."The Zanaga Iron Ore project, first studied in 2014, has languished in development limbo for nearly a decade due to infrastructure challenges, commodity cycles, AND SHAREHOLDER DISPUTES."

concludes

.." ZIOC is attempting to reframe the Zanaga project not just as a mining play, but as a long-term supplier to the green industrial economy. The construction of a pelletising plant—whether in Africa or the Gulf—could be the linchpin to unlocking that transition.

But success will hinge on financing, infrastructure, and geopolitical stability. With heavyweight investors now at the helm and strategic partners circling, Zanaga’s long-dormant iron ore deposit may finally be on the verge of becoming an active player in the low-carbon steel revolution."

I hope to drink to that!

GLA/ATB

.....And here's a thought : whatever makes sense for/to Gupta with 20% of Belinga probably makes even more sense to his 80% partner, Fortescue....

Here's something, prompted ex Canyon that Cameroon has a 10% 'free carry' with 'shoehorn rights' that might allow it to seek up to 25% of the project earnings :

What if Gupta were to be a stalking horse for FMG re ZIOC ?

(1) Gabon elections are due 12th April, Nguema the coup-leader is a favourite to win, by hook or possibly by crook. Whatever.

(2) If he wins, he expects Belinga to be involved in a 'nation-building' infrastructure that makes sense to him / Gabon but not (commercially) to Gupta/FMG.

(3) If Nguema isn't flexible on this - or at least allow Belinga to proceed as first planned (export via Owendo*), Belinga is either a non-starter or at best a much-delayed, less profitable starter : FMG - unlike Gupta - has no credible 'Plan B'...and - as a relative 'one-trick pony' - a greater imperative to find one :

* ARISE manages Gabon's Owendo Mineral Port (OMP) and the New Owendo International Port (NOIP) . These ports provide integrated logistics solutions and connect mines to international markets. https://www.arisepl.com/location/gabon/

- FMG has a serious 'Pilbara rust' problem. 'Twiggy' Forrest's other recent ventures - eg Red Hawk/Blacksmith - are just synergistic, cost-saving deferrals of the inevitable (AFAICS).

- FMG has acknowledged as much :

https://www.mining.com/fortescue-to-ship-first-iron-ore-from-gabon-by-year-end/

.."The agreement with Gabon was part of the miner’s ONGOING search for high-grade deposits that it can MIX with its current output to bring it CLOSER IN GRADE to that of rivals Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale..."

(4) Gupta/ARISE lack formal Board representation at ZIOC, but with 'semi-insider' status could doubtless keep FMG more 'in the loop' than a full outsider would be, esp on progress re the critical 'value enhancing' DRI and pelletisation steps.

(5) We know little about who/what's behind the newly-formed Gulf Iron and Steel (GIS)" consortium of strategic industry entities seeking to develop integrated steel facilities supplied by high-grade pellet feed iron ore to the Americas and the Middle East".

(6) What if (my speculation), FMG were to emerge - post (unhelpful) Gabon election outcome - as offtaker of GIS's 20%...and funder of FEED ($ 19 > $26M) and take a 30m shareholding in ZIOC at, say, an agreed 70p per share?

-FMG makes inroads into its blending issue, sending a message to Gabon; the new shareholders (and PI's) get a useful read-across gain and credible market cap (abt £ 600m); ARISE shows it can 'deliver'; every other potential Strategic is put on notice....what's not to like?

Note: FMG has previous with Mubadala on 'green hydrogen' at Acu Port, where Anglo export Minas Gerais ore; and with ADNOC re 'green' marine fuel.

Pure speculation on my part. Let's see what 12th April brings.

GLA/ATB

......And here's a thought : whatever makes sense for/to Gupta with 20% of Belinga probably makes even more sense to his 80% partner, Fortescue....

Here's a thought, prompted ex Canyon that Cameroon has a 10% 'free carry' with 'shoehorn rights' that might allow it to seek up to 25% of the project earnings :

What if Gupta were to be a stalking horse for FMG re ZIOC ?

(1) Gabon elections are due 12th April, Nguema the coup-leader is a favourite to win, by hook or possibly by crook. Whatever.

(2) If he wins, he expects Belinga to be involved in a 'nation-building' infrastructure that makes sense to him / Gabon but not (commercially) to Gupta/FMG.

(3) If Nguema isn't flexible on this - or at least allow Belinga to proceed as first planned (export via Owendo*), Belinga is either a non-starter or at best a much-delayed, less profitable starter : FMG - unlike Gupta - has no credible 'Plan B'...and - as a relative 'one-trick pony' - a greater imperative to find one :

* ARISE manages Gabon's Owendo Mineral Port (OMP) and the New Owendo International Port (NOIP) . These ports provide integrated logistics solutions and connect mines to international markets. https://www.arisepl.com/location/gabon/

- FMG has a serious 'Pilbara rust' problem. 'Twiggy' Forrest's other recent ventures - eg Red Hawk/Blacksmith - are just synergistic, cost-saving deferrals of the inevitable (AFAICS).

- FMG has acknowledged as much :

https://www.mining.com/fortescue-to-ship-first-iron-ore-from-gabon-by-year-end/

.."The agreement with Gabon was part of the miner’s ONGOING search for high-grade deposits that it can MIX with its current output to bring it CLOSER IN GRADE to that of rivals Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale..."

(4) Gupta/ARISE lack formal Board representation at ZIOC, but with 'semi-insider' status could doubtless keep FMG more 'in the loop' than a full outsider would be, esp on progress re the critical 'value enhancing' DRI and pelletisation steps.

(5) We know little about who/what's behind the newly-formed Gulf Iron and Steel (GIS)" consortium of strategic industry entities seeking to develop integrated steel facilities supplied by high-grade pellet feed iron ore to the Americas and the Middle East".

(6) What if (my speculation), FMG were to emerge - post (unhelpful) Gabon election outcome - as offtaker of GIS's 20%...and funder of FEED ($ 19 > $26M) and take a 30m shareholding in ZIOC at, say, an agreed 70p per share?

-FMG makes inroads into its blending issue, sending a message to Gabon; the new shareholders (and PI's) get a useful read-across gain and credible market cap (abt £ 600m); ARISE shows it can 'deliver'; every other potential Strategic is put on notice....what's not to like?

Note: FMG has previous with Mubadala on 'green hydrogen' at Acu Port, where Anglo export Minas Gerais ore; and with ADNOC re 'green' marine fuel.

Pure speculation on my part. Let's see what 12th April brings.

GLA/ATB

Hat-tip to djderry for this explanation :

.."Hi Extrader,Chris Bogart alluded to this during the investor day presentation.He explained that as Eton Park has been winding down ( if memory serves me correctly, it's been winding down since 2016) it's been selling down its assets,including its shares in the expropriation. This has provided Burford the opportunity to increase its stake.I think he said they have 81% of it,ie,of the Eton Park holding.I could be wrong on that as I was listening/ watching 4 hours of it!.."

GLA

....BUR is putting a little more of its/our money where its mouth is...

Per Seb (5 hours ago)

🛑 Burford Capital has increased its stake in the Eton Park case against the Republic of Argentina, related to the YPF litigation, from 73% to 82%. The Eton Park case represents 10% of the overall YPF case, while the Petersen case accounts for the remaining 90%."

Only 1 % extra, or so, but still.

I wonder who sold - and why?

GLA

...or hedging his bets ...if he's been backing the wrong horse ?

http://wikibin.org/articles/gagan-gupta.html

.."Gagan Gupta, has been building close links with the Gabonese president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, it is seen as one of the reason of his success over his competitors in Gabon..."

(1) Since ousted in a 2023 coup led by the current military leader, Nguema....who wants that

capex-intensive 'nation-building' railway from Belinga to Mayumba.....

(2) Ali Bongo Ondimba's late wife, Édith Lucie Bongo Ondimba, was the daughter of Denis Sassou Nguesso, the president of the Republic of Congo.

This makes Ali Bongo Ondimba the son-in-law of Denis Sassou Nguesso,

So, not out of the woods, yet.

Or so it would seem.

Here's our man's wiki entry, worth a read :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gagan_Gupta

Unlike many wiki entries, this one's pretty current...and includes his/his family's interest in ZIOC.

It also details the extent of his business interests and connections.

ARISE group employees bought out various Olam Group's interests, using an Abu Dhabi based investment vehicle, our old friends the African Transformation and Industrialisation Fund (ATIF).

Gagan seems particularly well-entrenched in Gabon - he got his start there.

.."In 2024, Gagan Gupta renamed the Africa Transformation and Industrialization Fund (ATIF) into Equitane, a multi-sector investment conglomerate dedicated to sustainable industrialization and economic transformation in Africa.

Unlike conventional investment funds, Equitane operates as a PERMANENT CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRUCTURE, focusing on long-term development over short-term returns. Equitane operates in 14 countries.

The fund comprises five main activities:

Infrastructure: Equitane (Gupta and colleagues) owns 24.08% of Arise IIP, supporting the expansion of industrial and logistics hubs across Africa.

Green mobility: The company owns Spiro, Africa's largest electric mobility company, pioneering sustainable transport solutions.

Manufacturing: Equitane holds investments in agro-processing (cotton, sugar), pharmaceuticals and ceramics, with projects designed to enhance Africa's local industrial capacity.

MINING : EQUITANE HOLDS A MINORITY STAKE [ 20% - FORTESCUE 80%] IN THE BELINGA IRON ORE PROJECT IN GABON, TO PROMOTE RESOURCE TRANSFORMATION AND INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATION.

Finance: A $50 million investment fund to promote African entrepreneurship, with a long-term goal of expanding access to capital markets..."

(1) AIUI, Belinga is currently 'on hold', having been told by the Govt that it wants it to get involved in a 'nation-building' re-routing of its export plan :

https://mines.gouv.ga/9-actualites/867-ministere-des-mines-projet-corridor-reliant-belinga-a-mayumba-/

.."the project is supported by the highest authority of the country, namely the President of the Republic, General Brice-Clotaire OLIGUI NGUEMA, because it will be very beneficial for the populations and for the development of the country..."

The project is expected to bring significant economic benefits, but it also requires substantial investment, estimated at $5-10 billion, per

https://news.goalfore.com/detail/64253/gabon-in-talks-for-belingamayumba-railway.html

(2) Gabon's Presidential elections are due next week 12 April 2025

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gabonese_general_election

(3) Is Gupta preparing himself/his family for a possible 'two-fer' .... in Congo AND Gabon ?

Hmmm....

ATB / GLA

Or...he may be hedging his bets, if he's been backing the wrong horse :

http://wikibin.org/articles/gagan-gupta.html

.."Gagan Gupta, has been building close links with the [ousted 2023 by current incumbent] Gabonese president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, it is seen as one of the reason of his success over his competitors in Gabon..."

Ali Bongo Ondimba's late wife, Édith Lucie Bongo Ondimba, was the daughter of Denis Sassou Nguesso, the president of the Republic of Congo.

This makes Ali Bongo Ondimba the son-in-law of Denis Sassou Nguesso,

So, not out of the woods, yet.

Or so it would seem.

GLA

Here's our man's wiki entry, worth a read :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gagan_Gupta

Unlike many wiki entries, this one's pretty current...and includes his/his family's interest in ZIOC.

It also details the extent of his business interests and connections.

ARISE group employees bought out various Olam Group's interests, using an Abu Dhabi based investment vehicle, our old friends the African Transformation and Industrialisation Fund (ATIF).

Gagan seems particularly well-entrenched in Gabon - he got his start there.

.."In 2024, Gagan Gupta renamed the Africa Transformation and Industrialization Fund (ATIF) into Equitane, a multi-sector investment conglomerate dedicated to sustainable industrialization and economic transformation in Africa.

Unlike conventional investment funds, Equitane operates as a PERMANENT CAPITAL INVESTMENT STRUCTURE, focusing on long-term development over short-term returns. Equitane operates in 14 countries.

The fund comprises five main activities:

Infrastructure: Equitane (Gupta and colleagues) owns 24.08% of Arise IIP, supporting the expansion of industrial and logistics hubs across Africa.

Green mobility: The company owns Spiro, Africa's largest electric mobility company, pioneering sustainable transport solutions.

Manufacturing: Equitane holds investments in agro-processing (cotton, sugar), pharmaceuticals and ceramics, with projects designed to enhance Africa's local industrial capacity.

MINING : EQUITANE HOLDS A MINORITY STAKE [ 20% - FORTESCUE 80%] IN THE BELINGA IRON ORE PROJECT IN GABON, TO PROMOTE RESOURCE TRANSFORMATION AND INDUSTRIAL INTEGRATION.

Finance: A $50 million investment fund to promote African entrepreneurship, with a long-term goal of expanding access to capital markets..."

(1) AIUI, Belinga is currently 'on hold', having been told by the Govt that it wants it to get involved in a 'nation-building' re-routing of its export plan :

https://mines.gouv.ga/9-actualites/867-ministere-des-mines-projet-corridor-reliant-belinga-a-mayumba-/

.."the project is supported by the highest authority of the country, namely the President of the Republic, General Brice-Clotaire OLIGUI NGUEMA, because it will be very beneficial for the populations and for the development of the country..."

The project is expected to bring significant economic benefits, but it also requires substantial investment, estimated at $5-10 billion, per

https://news.goalfore.com/detail/64253/gabon-in-talks-for-belingamayumba-railway.html

(2) Gabon's Presidential elections are due next week 12 April 2025

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gabonese_general_election

(3) Is Gupta preparing himself/his family for a possible 'two-fer' .... in Congo AND Gabon ?

Hmmm....

ATB / GLA

Woodmac has just released this report :

https://www.woodmac.com/blogs/the-edge/big-mining-pivots-to-copper-growth

Article snippets :

.."Big Mining pivots to copper for growth

Is the era of capital discipline over?".....Metals and mining companies are starting to shake off the sector’s long-held dedication to capital discipline. In stark contrast to Big Oil corporates which are cutting budgets....

..How much more are miners spending?

The thirteen companies have flagged an increase in 2025 averaging almost 10%. This will lift spend for the peer group to a combined US$60 billion in 2025, just under half of the total across the entire metals and mining sector. What’s interesting is that the increase comes after an extended period of capital discipline and contrasts with the rest of the global sector. ....

..Copper is also the focus of growth for Diversified Miners, which face stagnating cash flows on the back of weaker iron ore demand from China and soft prices..

..Are we seeing the end of capital discipline?

Miners have spent the best part of a decade assiduously rebuilding finances after the excesses of the last upcycle. Balance sheets are now in pretty good shape and management won’t give that up easily.

Capital discipline has also become synonymous with maximising shareholder returns at the expense of capex. Any surplus cash flow not used to pay down debt has gone back to shareholders, but there are now signs investors are willing to sacrifice payouts in return for growth in the right commodities.

GREENFIELD copper projects are starting to offer the most attractive returns for capital deployment. However, not every mining company has a pipeline of growth opportunities....."

GLA

PS : I think even Inspector Clouseau could join these dots :

(a) the 3 March RNS :

..2) Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of Arise, is investing US$4.0 million THROUGH AN INVESTMENT VEHICL for a post buy back transaction ownership of 9.7% (before any additional Greymont Bay Subscription).

o Arise is developing the Special Economic Zone ("SEZ") and its related infrastructures facilities in Pointe-Noire, RoC.

o Strategic Partnership: On December 11, 2024, Zanaga Iron Ore Company and its wholly owned subsidiary, MPD, signed a Memorandum of Understanding ("MoU") with Arise. This collaboration aims to advance the development of the Zanaga Project's onshore and offshore port infrastructure within the SEZ, leveraging Arise's extensive experience in infrastructure development to enhance and de-risk the project's logistics and export capabilities...."

(b) the 18 March RNS :

.."Pellet Plant Feasibility Study

The Republic of Congo is striving to develop NEW INDISTRIAL MANUFACTURING capability. Abundant gas and energy availability in Republic of Congo provides an ideal environment for potential pelletisation of Zanaga's high grade iron ore products. The Pointe-Indienne Special Economic Zone ("SEZ"), under development by Arise (the Zanaga Project's port development partner) is ideally suited for such industrial activity...."

(c) the 26 Mar 2025 RNS ;

.." Gagan Gupta's total investment in the Fundraise has increased to US$4.30 million with resulting ownership of 10.03% following Second Admission..."

and

(d) the updated ZIOC website that shows

Shareholder Number of shares % of share capital

Eagle Eye Asset Holdings Ltd 83,333,334 10.03%

HTH.

Three further thoughts :

(1) The stated choice of siting the pelletisation project EITHER in Congo or somewhere in the M East might be a useful negotiating carrot or trade-off.

(2) Some of the recent relative price stability despite volume might be folk 'bed and breakfasting' into tax shelters of one kind or another?

(2) There appears to be another possible Gupta/ARISE angle, separate post to follow.

GLA/ATB

Oops!

Written in haste ;-<

Quite right...and the 'single family office' might prefer its relative (geddit?) anonymity.

Tough.

I'm sure that the folk who need to know will be told...or find out, if they haven't been told already.

ATB

extrader

Disgruntled member of the 'great unwashed'

It would help if they also mentioned that ARISE had just bought 10% of the Co....

Let's hope ZIOC is better at marketing ore than they are themselves.

;-