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Snap, BBH! Unusual for Seb to post at the weekend...

My excuse is that I'm in a different time zone ;->

Copilot summarizes as:

.."RA4ARG argues that:

The original acquisition of YPF shares by Petersen Group in 2008 was tainted by corruption, allegedly orchestrated by the Kirchner family and businessman Enrique Eskenazi.

Because the shares were allegedly obtained illegally, the plaintiffs (Burford Capital via Petersen and Eton Park) should not be entitled to compensation for their expropriation.

The NGO requested a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice and a stay of proceedings during that probe.

It also asked the court to recalculate damages based on a different breach date and interest rate under Argentine law. [ Ed.: it seems a bit odd to quibble over a detail, whilst at the same time asking /arguing that the whole thing should be voided, which adds to the impression that this is 'vexatious' ....]

Weaknesses and Procedural Hurdles

-Judge Preska already dismissed RA4ARG’s motion in March 2025, stating the NGO had “no cognizable interest” in the litigation and that its request was “untimely”.

-RA4ARG is not a party to the case, and its intervention came after final judgment, which courts typically frown upon.

-Burford Capital argued that RA4ARG’s filing was symbolic, lacked standing, and offered no legitimate reason for its late entry.

The NGO’s appeal to the Second Circuit is pending, but its success is considered unlikely by legal analysts.

Delay Tactic or Strategic Play?

-While RA4ARG is technically independent, its arguments align closely with the Argentine government’s appeal strategy, and officials have signaled support for its corruption claims. The timing—just ahead of midterm elections and amid IMF negotiations—suggests a politically convenient maneuver to:

-Shift the narrative from breach of contract to alleged corruption

-Buy time for Argentina’s broader appeal to play out

-Potentially trigger a DOJ investigation that could complicate enforcement

So yes, it functions as a delaying tactic, but one wrapped in a public interest and anti-corruption framing.

Whether the Second Circuit entertains it seriously will be telling...."

As the song runs, 'Things are getting complicated...'

ATB

.."(1)They are not all going to get built, and those that do are not going to get built on time, on schedule and remotely under budget.(2) Just a personal view..."

(1) Agreed. You only have to look at Thelo DB's track record to see that.

(2) Isn't that what all our views are?

You omitted the likely most ZIOC-relevant project, neighbour Gabon's proposed Belinga > Mayumba rail-line, which has stymied Fortescue's Belinga mine project, now seemingly 'on hold'.

However, with FMG doing a 'reverse ferret' on green hydrogen, maybe Fortescue will either (a) seek to engage constructively with Gabon for some compromise contribution, to get Belinga mine re-activated.....or (b) give it up as a bad job and have a tilt at Zanaga, with its less demanding slurry-pipeline solution?

https://www.mining.com/web/fortescue-iron-ore-shipments-rise-scraps-us-aussie-green-energy-projects/

Higher (record) ore volume exported; no comment re quality levels, 3 year delay to 2028 to achieving its target 22mtpa magnetite supply ex IronBridge - it expects to reach 10-12mtpa for FYE 6/2026.

The Tsodilo Resources project you mention is at PEA stage, so a stranded asset in Botswana barely at 'proof of concept' stage.

Its latest report https://tsodiloresources.com/s/Presentations.asp.html DOES give an interesting benchmark for the 'value enhancement' exercise that ZIOC is currently undertaking :

.."Value Adding-Process Magnetite Superfines to High Grade Pellets

PelletFeed~40%bonus on 67.2%Fe oreprice, plus~15% grade bonus–Totalbonus=~55%

($120USD/tonne as at 1st January2025)=~ $275USD/tonne.."

That's quite an uplift!

My interest in Ulsan is mainly that it appears to show that someone is looking seriously at a mining investment in C-B; it is part of a credible Western-ish conglomerate, so may prompt some FOMO; and it has come up with a financing structure that has revealed something about C-B's thought processes and political/economic priorities.

Additionally, its downstream ambitions for a 'metallurgical complex' at the PN SEZ may chime with ZIOC shareholder ARISE's ambitions at the same location, so there may be scope for collaboration i/o competition (esp given that there MAY be power for one foundry, but its unlikely C-B would have capacity for two...).

A good weekend to one and all.

Continued...

.." [signing] closes a lengthy negotiation phase that began shortly after the 2024 bilateral mining agreement.

..."Turkish-Congolese Investment Architecture

Ulsan Holding has pledged to supply 20 locomotives and more than 300 specialised wagons, an asset base calibrated to move roughly six million tonnes of ore annually once full production is reached.

..."Financing is structured through a mix of commercial loans underwritten by Turkish ECAs and equity injections from Ulsan’s African subsidiary, limiting the fiscal exposure of the Congolese treasury while anchoring long-term Turkish strategic interests in Central Africa. Officials close to the dossier indicate that the loan component carries a grace period of five years, aligning debt service with the ramp-up of mining revenues.

..."In what observers view as the cornerstone of sustainable impact, Ulsan has tabled a 2 billion-dollar plan for a metallurgical complex in Pointe-Noire. The facility would convert raw ore into DRI and semi-finished billets for regional steel mills, curbing the historical trend of exporting low-value commodities. Preliminary feasibility studies, validated by independent consultants in June, project an additional 1.4 billion dollars in annual GDP contribution once the plant reaches optimal capacity.

.."Regional Connectivity and Continental Trade Agendas

The Mayoko-Pointe-Noire axis dovetails neatly with the African Continental Free Trade Area’s aspiration for seamless corridors. Brazzaville’s planners foresee future interconnections with the Cabinda enclave and the Benguela line in Angola, forming an Atlantic-facing logistics spine attractive to land-locked neighbours. The Economic Community of Central African States has already flagged the project as a priority in its 2025-2035 infrastructure master plan, unlocking potential access to concessional funds from multilateral lenders keen on cross-border projects.

.."Governance Frameworks and Risk Mitigation

Transparency clauses require quarterly publication of disbursement schedules and progress metrics, an arrangement praised by the World Bank for ‘aligning with emergent norms of open contracting in sub-Saharan Africa’. ESAI assessments have cleared the national regulator, with mitigation plans covering biodiversity corridors along the Niari floodplains and community resettlement protocols financed through a ring-fenced escrow account.

..." the debt-to-export ratio is projected to remain within the International Monetary Fund’s moderate threshold, thanks to phased drawdowns and the prospective revenue inflow from processed iron.

.." the rail overhaul and planned foundry epitomise a policy trajectory that privileges infrastructure-led industrialisation.."

This Mayoko is the former Equatorial Resources mine.

Articles with some real 'meat' to them, IMO.

GLA

Two articles in quick succession from a source I'd not seen before :

(1) https://congotimes.com/2025/07/20/iron-will-congos-737me-rail-revival/

and

(2)https://congotimes.com/2025/07/23/iron-rails-and-diplomacy-congos-737me-gamble/

More authoritative and content-rich than usual eg

.." the Republic of Congo has endorsed a 737 million euro convention with Ulsan Mining Congo for the complete renovation of the 285-kilometre rail artery that links the iron-rich uplands of Mayoko‐Moussondji to the deep-water port of Pointe-Noire.

.."Officials in Brazzaville underline that the double-digit growth in global steel demand cannot bypass Congo’s own deposits any longer.

.."Financial architecture under Turkish stewardship

The funding arrangement.. blends commercial loans secured by the Turkish group with a tranche of supplier credit, senior debt and an equity injection that Congo’s Ministry of Finance describes as “prudent leverage” consistent with IMF sustainability thresholds. Ankara’s development finance institutions, already visible in Togolese and Sudanese infrastructure, are expected to provide risk-mitigation instruments...

.."While the convention refrains from sovereign guarantees, it creates a throughput-linked payment mechanism: every tonne of ore dispatched will trigger a service fee that services the rail debt. For Congo, this model is portrayed as an elegant hedge, transferring performance risk to the operator yet anchoring public oversight through a joint monitoring committee housed at the Ministry of Transport...

.."A first batch of twenty mainline locomotives and more than three hundred ore wagons has already been ordered from manufacturers in Eskişehir and Sakarya, in line with UIC standards that allow eventual connection to regional corridors stretching toward Gabon and Angola. Track renewal will include heavier rail, concrete sleepers and digitised signalling—features absent from the colonial-era alignment completed in 1934.

..."Ulsan Mining’s parent company has announced a two-billion-dollar smelter complex for Pointe-Noire’s SEZ, a pledge that, if honoured, would constitute one of the continent’s largest green-field iron-making facilities outside South Africa. The plant aims to process up to three million tonnes of hot-briquetted iron annually, slashing transport emissions associated with shipping raw ore and enlarging Congo’s fiscal base through higher-value exports.

.." Follows Big Den/Erdogan summit meeting, shows C-B can deal outside Francophone orbit

.." emerging powers are courting African partners hesitant to mortgage future commodity revenues. By choosing a framework that ties repayment to operational success rather than oil-backed collateral, Brazzaville signals a nuanced financial stewardship that multilateral lenders have quietly welcomed....

Continued....

Hi 99icecream,

.."More likely to sell GEM shares (worth £ 500,000) than ZIOC shares (worth £5,900,000) IMHO."

Yes.

Your comment prompted me to re-visit the numbers at GEMD, not looked at for some time.

Both co's have had a precipitate fall from grace since the heady floatation days, but GEMD's mining operations appear to be closer to 'end-of-life' (as it faces significant geological challenges + local political controversies), whereas we hope/believe that ZIOC is still experiencing a 'difficult pregnancy' !

Elphick has 9.3m or 6.6% of GEMD's approx 140m shares. The current s/p of 5.5p is against a NAV backdrop of $ 144.3m = £106m, for a NAV per share of 75.7p.....quite a discount.

Meanwhile, his 80m of ZIOC's 832m shares gives him a 9.6% holding. The same NAV backdrop metric ($85m/£65m) gives a NAV per share of 7.85p, pretty close to the current s/p of 7.4p ...and around which level it has broadly oscillated (7 to 9p) since the new investors came on board.

I've no idea what GEMD's NPV might look like - its declining ore grades and more fragmented geology is forcing it to shift from open-pit to insourcing and selective extraction, with unclear/untested implications.

ZIOC, meanwhile awaits with bated breath a multi-billion$$$ potential uplift to its NPV, where a sale -even at a substantial discount - would be many multiples of the current s/p.

Add to that, that he's lost more ground to industry specialists at GEMD than at ZIOC...and appears to be facing more public challenges to his fiefdom there, with (larger) institutional investors already objecting to Directors' remuneration and authority to allot shares....and the (perhaps defensive) notion of introducing share-based compensation, to 'better align incentives'.

He's been taking out about $1m pa in total compensation at GEMD for the last several years, of which abt $ 650K pa in salary, while at ZIOC its been nominal (£75K in 2023), nil cash (2020-2025) or share-based deferred pay.

On the face of it , I'd say there was no contest. Esp given the absolute quantum proceeds of the two, both at present and - we believe - potential going forward.

As Mitch984 has reminded us, Guava's lock-in expires currently in early September, which may or may not be a factor in ZIOC's timeline for Strategic Investor/Partner 'ongoing' engagement and 'formal bid process launch' in Q4

ATB

Seb chips in with latest IMF report :

FMI: 2025 External Sector Report

Capítulo 3, Página 6, Argentina

"Exec Summary:

Overall Assessment: The external position in 2024 was weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

Economic fundamentals have improved substantially since end-2023, but net international reserves remain critically low and sovereign spreads, while down sharply, are still elevated. The external assessment is subject to exceptionally high uncertainty and contingent on implementation of structural reforms that boost competitiveness and productivity.

Potential Policy Responses: Sustained implementation of the newly approved EFF program—with its strong fiscal anchor, a more robust monetary and FX regime (with active measures to rebuild international reserves), and competitiveness-enhancing reforms—is necessary to maintain a strong trade balance, attract FDI, regain market access, and safeguard external sustainability.

A more flexible exchange rate, along with a gradual easing of remaining FX restrictions, multiple currency practices and CFM measures, a cautious approach to prudential policies, and reforms to create a more open and market-oriented economy, are key to build resilience and support sustainable longer-term capital inflows to boost Argentina’s vast external potential, including in energy and mining."

...structural reforms....attract FDI....market-oriented economy....sustainable inflows/long term capital...vast energy and mining potential...

But then https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/091c7d50-1b0c-5b7c-a28b-30017b57c589

.."Argentina is the IMF's biggest debtor ( $ 40.5 Bn, out of $145Bn = 27.6%) at Feb 2025; This is about $2bn debt less than a year ago, a sign of a shift in the long, beleaguered relationship between the country and the IMF.

At the turn of the century, the IMF made $88.3bn available to bail out Argentina’s ailing economy. Despite discontent and political turmoil, then president Néstor Kirchner repaid the entire debt in 2006. Mauricio Macri, who became president in 2015, resorted to the IMF for a $50bn bailout in 2018 — the biggest rescue in the IMF’s history.

However, the country soon found itself in dire straits again, returning to the IMF in 2022 for another $44bn loan.

But the macroeconomic programme of Argentina’s current libertarian president Javier Milei, who took office in 2023, has turned the Latin American economy around and been praised by the IMF.

Milei’s government is in talks for a new IMF loan this year."

DYOC Draw Your Own Conclusions.

NAI, DYOR etc etc

ATB

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