Member Info for extrader

Hi johnpwh,

The RNS re EchoStar's indicative offer in June 18 doesn't say the mix, the Improved Proposal that was turned down as 'seriously undervaluing' ISAT was a 50/50 mix of cash and shares see :

…"Under the terms of the Improved Proposal, Inmarsat shareholders would be entitled to receive 265 pence in cash and 0.0777 new shares of EchoStar class A common stock (to be listed on NASDAQ) for each Inmarsat share, (subject to the reservations referred to below). Based on the closing price per share of EchoStar class A common stock on 5 July 2018 of US$45.45 and an exchange rate of £:US$ of 1:1.3244 on 5 July 2018, the Improved Proposal implies an equivalent value of 532 pence per Inmarsat share, valuing Inmarsat's existing issued share capital at approximately £2.45 billion. …"

EchoStar paper may be the issue : S'pedia has a 41/100 StockRank, shows a PER of 63x, a 2.5%ROC and an Altman score of 1.20 ( "EchoStar has an Altman Z1 of 1.20 indicating a serious risk of financial distress within the next 2 years")
.
HTH and ATB

IMF agenda out to 27th : Timor-Leste, Costa Rica, Nigeria....Still nowt re C-B.

ATB

Another thing.

The price in NY appears to have settled ($7.05) pretty close to the mooted offer ($ 7.21), which on the face of it suggests that punters (a) think the approach is serious and (b) that it's worth buying despite the (so far) skewed risk/reward ratio , making me think that they must be expecting/hoping for a bidding war , where the end reward will have made the risk worth while......

ATB

Hi Dinoken,

The price will go up a bit tomorrow.
Some of the shorters may deem it prudent to reduce their positions.
EchoStar may come back with another approach and we might (even) get a bidding war.....

All good stuff.

ATB

Me again.

Up 26% in NY, to US$ 7.05 = £ 5.34.

The approach seems to have been fairly contained, only rising from around 375 from mid-Feb.

These are the material (over 0.5%) short positions disclosed per short-tracker :

Fund % short change Date changed
Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited 0.90% 0.10% 1 Mar 2019
Millennium International Management LP 0.50% 0.50% 14 Mar 2019
Portsea Asset Management LLP 0.90% 0.12% 8 Mar 2019
Thunderbird Partners LLP 0.69% 0.15% 7 Feb 2019
Total 2.99%

About 14 million shares to find.

ATB

Hi all,

RNS after hours : "The Board of Inmarsat confirms that on 31 January 2019 it received a non-binding proposal from Apax Partners LLP ("Apax"), Warburg Pincus International LLC ("Warburg Pincus"), and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ("CPPIB") regarding A POSSIBLE CASH OFFER OF US$7.21 PER Inmarsat SHARE for the entire issued, and to be issued, share capital of Inmarsat. The proposal assumed no further dividends would be paid by Inmarsat following the date of the proposal. Apax, Warburg Pincus and CPPIB subsequently confirmed that Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board ("OTPP" and together with Apax, Warburg Pincus and CPPIB, the "Consortium") would also be supporting the proposal as part of the Consortium.

The proposal remains UNDER DISCUSSION between the Company and the Consortium. As such, there can be no certainty as to the terms on which any offer would be made. Nor is it certain that the discussions will lead to any firm offer for the Company. A further announcement will be made in due course.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, the Consortium is required, by not later than 5.00 p.m. (London time) on 16 April 2019, being 28 days after today's date, to EITHER ANNOUNCE A FIRM INTENTION TO MAKE AN OFFER for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code OR announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel (the "Panel") in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

This statement is being made by Inmarsat without the prior agreement or approval of the Consortium."

US$ 7.21 = £ 5.43 at today's rate.

ATB

Hi OWLS,

Still more than we normally see matched up at day end (the 4.6M). And what about the 1801 amount, not UT, surely?

ATB

Hi all,

Africa Intelligence headlines today : Transport hurdles and power shortages can't hold back Obambi and co.'s iron ambitions....

Snippet : …" The group's mining arm, headed by Obambi's son Paul Obambi Jr, has been evacuating some 2,000 tonnes of iron ore every ten days from its Mayoko mine since May 2018. To send a first shipment Sapro, which bought the mining site from South African firm Exxaro in 2016, needs to amass 35,000 tonnes of iron ore....."

It's NOT the first shipment, there have been 2 previous deliveries, last year. The first took 1 month to get from the mine to PN, the second derailed.
And, at 2,000 tons per 10 days = 200 tpd, they're only targeting 73,000 in a full year, which is laughable. And is hardly likely to impress the Chinese (remember : SaproMayoko was one of the 5 co's that signed Letters of Intent that CRBC wanted to show Chinese EximBank)

So I'm assuming the journalist has got his numbers wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

But the article at least shows that there are others mulling getting things underway.

Meanwhile, nothing re C-B debt on the IMF agenda out to March 25.

ATB

Hi Pawpawman,

Well, over in t'other place, they were very excited ( are they ever anything else ?) about how 'closely' the wording of OUR Presentation RNS matched that used by GLEN when they gave an update a few months back.

Despite there being only so many ways you can deliver the basics.

Anyhoo, GLEN released its presentation AN HOUR before the conference call.

But at least they put up a transcript of the conference call on the website afterwards. Which I don't think ZIOC have committed to do.

Hey ho....or ho hum, even.

ATB

Hi DGR1980,

That would be a very slooooow dead cat bounce !

And wouldn't really be sensible, if the price has gone up on genuinely good news. Of course, some people might want to sell regardless and crystallise a loss , as part of their tax planning.

OTOH, it WOULD make sense to see the price spike and then fall back on rampers' profit-taking.....

Another option , of course - whatever happens - is to blame it all on those wicked MM's ;->

ATB

Hi Mitch984,

Too right !
That's what happens, unfortunately, when people cry "wolf" - or, in our case, "boom !" - too often.

Although, to mix metaphors, even a stopped clock is right twice a day...…..and maybe, just maybe, this time it IS different...

Not long to wait now.

ATB

Hi scoredagainsteps,

…"Our trump card is this is uk not some country with political problems miles away ."...

I and some of the other posters here are/were investors in a small oilco called Soco International (EPIC : SIA) , many moons ago, derided for being interested in a company doing business in 'bongo bongo land'.

I - and I hope they - made a shedload of money in the years that followed, though latterly SIA has lost some of its lustre.

Meanwhile , in the 'safe UK' , over the same period oilco's have had to contend with opportunistic, predatory windfall taxes and unfriendly regulatory changes

And who knows how 'benign' Westminster will be with a prospective succulent golden goose, as it struggles to balance the books / square the circle / match some of an aroused electorate's expectations….?

Oh, the penny's dropped ! You were being ironic......;->

ATB

Hi triggerman,

There's a lot of layman-friendly info on the company website, under presentations, see www.hurricaneenergy.com.

The AM won't itself anchor, it will hook up /latch on to the buoy, which is tethered to the sea-bed. The hookup process is supposed (per Dr T) to take about 6 hours , in favourable conditions. If you've been following the company/thread for any time, you'll be aware that previous efforts to hook up have been frustrated.

The rate of 20,000bopd is a theoretical intended maximum, a practical cap is likely to be 17,000 bopd allowing for downtime...and this will likely only be achieved after several weeks of 'tweaking', in order to provide data for field reservoir analysis (flow-rates, pressure build-up, etc).

The time taken for commissioning aka 'first oil' has been indicated by Dr T as roughly 3 weeks, as we have seen with hookup this estimate is just that, an estimate/educated guess, and shouldn't be considered as more than 'indicative'.

HTH and ATB

Hi all,

Hat tip to harleymaxwell elsewhere - some late trades on Friday :

Looks like 2 , in fact : 4.6m @ 1635, but then another 1.97m @.....1801 (?)

About £ 30M in 'real money', let's see what happens over the course of next week.

ATB

Hi TheCashFerret,

Nothing scheduled per IMF up to 22 March, see https://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/Index.aspx

ATB

Hi Rafaley,

I fully 'get' that GLEN's position as a participant in questionable (or, at least, questioned) loans to SNPC for unclear purposes means that their position vis-à-vis both C-B and the IMF (and, indeed , the US DoJ) is more complicated than our own and requires them to pursue a different tack.

And it does seem, from all the weaving, ducking and diving (plus recent onboarding of DSK) that Nguesso is not taking kindly to being screwed down. He seems to be running out of options : no joy from Saudi and he's reportedly cancelled a proposed trip to call in on Putin.

I disagree that being more candid/supportive re Zanaga would damage GLEN's negotiating position : to the contrary, publicising THE BENEFITS TO C-B AS A COUNTRY that would flow from Nguesso playing ball (and facilitating pent-up investment incl. Zanaga) would resonate positively with just about everyone...…..and screw Nguesso (who IS the Government, for all practical purposes) down even further.

Some of these benefits will hopefully be apparent in the forthcoming IP. And yes, it would be good to see Zanaga moving from the back-burner.

ATB

Hi Pawpawman,

Thanks for this. I think there's previously been discussion about day-to-day management and 'control', wasn't this re Jyothish George's watching brief role (befitting his background) at Champion ? Would make sense for the same to be the case at Jumelles.

ATB

Hi MatrixFencing,

I'm glad to see somebody addressing this point, whilst we await a 'black swan' from Rafaley.

To be clear, I'd be DELIGHTED if he can come up with anything showing GLEN's active interest in this legacy investment.

GLEN has a MCap of £43 Bn, give or take, and ZIOC has a MCap of under £28M, GLEN's 50% ( + 1 share) in Zanaga contributes approx. 28 / 43,000 = 0.065% of its MCap. That is, less than 1/10th of 1%.

Zanaga just about gets a mention somewhere in the footnotes to GLEN's Annual Report.

Under the circs, I'm not surprised that they're prepared to have ZIOC do all the running.

As for any showing up for schmoozing photo opps - or, indeed, the IP - I suspect that in addition to the GLEN representative's flag-waving for political/cosmetic purposes, it's also his/her brief to make sure that the ZIOC team don't leverage the GLEN involvement more than suits GLEN.

As I say, nothing would please me more than to be proved wrong !

ATB

Hi Rafaley,

People keep trotting out this canard, as though it answers everything.

I've yet to see a single statement from GLEN itself saying anything meaningful about Zanaga, plenty from ZIOC, of course.

This is a black swan point , Rafaley, easy enough to disprove by providing one example.

ATB

Hi all,

It's a bit unwise to count cash required for upcoming drilling (committed) as part of the NAV : it'll be gone in 6 months, with or without a positive outcome....

A bit like saying that I'm liquid , but forgetting I've earmarked funds for the mortgage.

When it's gone, it's gone.

The current 'snapshot' is misleading in that respect at least....and some of the other elements of "NAV" seem 'courageous' to say the least.

I'm a holder, btw, but also a realist.

ATB