Member Info for extrader

Hi atg,

Thanks for this !
Historically, Abu Dhabi was seen as the 'slower' of the 2 x main Emirates, it had the money whilst Dubai had the 'smarts' - they've sometimes been rivals (think Etihad vs Emirates airlines), but under a younger generation have been more co-operative of late.
DP World is a major international ports operator (it bought P + O port ops a few years ago) and has been going head-to-head with the Chinese, competing for access/influence in a number of 'strategic' areas , initially the Horn of Africa, but latterly elsewhere on the Continent.

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/07/19/the-uae-is-scrambling-to-control-ports-in-africa

With the Emirates developing a (necessarily) more coherent foreign policy, it's not impossible that they may be looking (with Trafigura) at doing something in C-B.
For sure, there seem to be a lot of bees buzzing around this honey-pot !

ATB

Hi bartlebobton,

I think from CMD - either presentation or Q and A - there was a comment to the effect that production guidance was set for build-up to 20K net (as opposed to 20K - 15% for downtime / contingencies = 17K).
What effect this had on buildup wasn't - IIRC - stated.
Remember : we're ahead of the curve atm (it seems), but the important word is 'average'.

HUR now has more 'wiggle room' than before...and more scope for surprising to the upside, also.

ATB

Hi atg
Agree re GLEN and 'option value'.
Think we can all agree that GLEN could sell that option for a good deal more now than it could have say 6 months ago ie pre IMF,pre Vale, etc

Greater likelihood of something happening now, at any rate.

ATB

Hi wallact,

Sorry for O/T - from your last reply (re pro-ppp) would I be right to conclude you have Guyanese connections ?
Feel free to ignore !
My Dad used to describe himself as 'white Creole, from the land of 6 races' when the questionnaire allowed.

ATB

Hi wallact,

Thanks for this. I see that the IMF isn't in favour of the terms of Exxon's PSA.....and neither is the Texas academic and instructor , who it - handily - turns out, " is versed in contract-renegotiation".

Quelle surprise !

As my late pappy used to say, " when reading an article, consider the source".

As to the thrust of your comment (see what I just did there ?), yes, indeed : Vroom ! Vroom!

ATB

Hi wallact,

Thanks for the link : big multinational takes advantage of naïve small country is hardly news, but still somewhat distasteful, in this day and -supposedly better-informed - age.
OTOH, my understanding is that EXXON took on a risk that others hadn't / wouldn't at the time…..and it has paid off in spades.
And, from the geo-political perspective, extending the Stabroek concession right up to the disputed waters with Venezuela has - with hindsight - turned out to be a good defensive move.....;->
Let's hope the locals escape the resource curse and enjoy wisely their (modest) share of the spoils !

ATB

Hi TrekMadone,

"Nice find, interestingly or not we don’t appear on map. Trek. Tick!"

I think you're being disingenuous - and wonder why that might be ? Stabroek only shows ExxonMobil on the map (as operator) not the partners, Orinduik only shows Tullow. Entirely consistent.

Our involvement IS credited in the text.

The only 'interesting' thing for me is why you bothered to make such a (patently misleading) comment.

ATB

Hi all,

The press conference gave an IMF credit figure of " $ 259 billion". Allowing that they mean CFA billion, this would be US$ 440m, which IS close to the reuters figure in https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-congorepublic-imf-afdb-idUKKCN1U727R

"Following two years of negotiations, the IMF’s executive board on Thursday approved a 3-year program worth nearly $449 million for Congo, an OPEC member hit hard by a 2014 crash in crude prices. "

Maybe C-B is not only confusing CFA and USD, but also ADB and IMF...…

ATB

Hi weighup,

GLEN put the debt at around US$ 700 million, per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/congo-trafigura-are-said-to-agree-restructuring-of-oil-loans

..."The Republic of Congo is still in talks with other oil traders. Glencore and a syndicate of banks are owed about $700 million by Congo from pre-export finance oil deals, according to the trading house’s 2018 annual report...."

Hi jagakajay,

Thanks for this . Key takeaways :

"... much of the first disbursement (80%) should be allocated to funding hospitals, schools, access to water and electricity, including 'Lisungui' social safety net programmes. …"

Don't expect too much to be going to the 'heavy' end of infrastructure, this is the 'citizen's welfare' element of the IMF programme.

And .."While the government has been able to reach compromises with some creditors on debt rescheduling, like China, the treatment of domestic and traders' debt is not concluded. To do this, the executive promised to INITIATE (my bold) discussions on the subject with traders BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR (ditto).

Seemingly not in a hurry (FFS ! what have their debt negotiators been doing for the last 3 years ?) and recognise that C-B don't have a strong negotiating position ( as they acknowledge : "In practice, traders can appropriate enough crude oil to cover their receivables [ interest at least, if maybe not principal] "

Note also the current exchange rate is roughly CFA 700 = USD 1/ CFA 1 million is abt US$1, 700/ CFA 1 billion =US$ 1.7 million. So the fig quoted in the press release for ADB is approx. US$ 445 million (which doesn't tie in with any number I've seen quoted before), the World Bank's is US$ 290million (ditto). France's figure is given as US$ 150million. And how this ties in with the figure given for the IMF is anybody's guess.

The "traders" debt , quoted as CFA 965 billion /US$ 1.64 billion also doesn't seem to tie in with numbers previously reported elsewhere. Maybe it includes whatever Chinese 'trade debt' there may be, in addition to GLEN and Trafigura ?

Any corrections/comments /clarifications welcome !

E & OE.
ATB

...

Hi BlooBird,

I think you'll find that only the middle trade is HUR-related.

ATB

Hi Cebo-456,

Suggestion now on ADVFN that it's an institution placing, not HUR.

https://www.bloomberg.com/press-releases/2019-07-16/hurricane-energy-holder-to-sell-5-5-of-company-shares

Behind paywall, can't see the body of msge.

ATB

Hi Tonnacombe,

An unsourced comment on ADVFN that it's a 110M institutional placing. That would tie in +/- with the new II holding RNS'd today.
But you'd normally announce the placing before/at the same time as the take-up.....

Guess we'll find out soon enough if there's any substance.

ATB

Hi Sidneysideline,

…"it’s the Investing in Africa forum later this year... " Not FOCAC.

No worries, your fundamental point applies : Nguesso will be standing up in front of a big crowd of his peers (in all the savoury and unsavoury senses of the word, in all likelihood). He's going to want to have something to show.

For some reason, I'm reminded of the Godfather scene :

"Sonny: Hey, listen, I want somebody good—and I mean very good—to plant that gun. I don't want my brother coming out of that toilet with just his dick in his hands, alright?

Clemenza: The gun'll be there."

I think myself that 'our gun' will be there....
NAI, DYOR etc etc

ATB

Hi Diversified et al,

This from davwal on ADVFN, for balance :

...https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/-/media/Global/Files/investor-relations/other-investor-presentations/2019-Growing-Upstream-Value.pdf?la=en&hash=6FF855398AF3747F91EC66527BE7D71FA030C841

…" I’m not sure if this ExxonMobil presentation from 18 June has been on before. (Sorry I cant do the direct link)

I was struck by slide 9 showing previous dusters in offshore Guyana. Firstly none are shown on ExxonMobil’s prodigious territory, and secondly there’s a nasty cluster of 6 dry wells that appear to be on or around our postcode. EEK..!..."

Clearly , there's a lot of difference in the quality of 60's and 70's seismic and what the industry has now (think : pocket calculator vs. supercomputer), but a healthy reminder that this is NOT a racing certainty.

ATB
Discl.: LTH, most recent top-up about 6 weeks back, av. ca. 50p

Hi TCF,
…"Note the specific reference to GLEN "The IMF is also advising Congo’s government to restructure high-interest debt it contracted with oil traders including Glencore (GLEN.L) and Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] …"

Thanks for sharing this snippet of the 'conditionality' wot I spoke of yesterday !

GLEN will have been making money hand over fist on these delayed payments over the last few years (as its cost of funds has dropped thanks to QE) and it has probably made (at least partial internal) provisions against possible loss.

So it now has a useful extra card in any Zanaga-related discussions : it can score brownie points with C-B / IMF by agreeing a (relatively inexpensive) rescheduling, as part of any deal ; the banks in its loan syndicate are then made 'current' on their C-B exposure, making it easier for all of them to to get increased Country Risk limit applications past their Credit Committees; AND they make a competitor (Trafigura) look bad....

What's not to like ?

ATB

Hi Bladey et al,

I'd like to think that HUR PR are 'striking whilst the iron's hot' - lots of newsflow etc, ie a Good Thing - it's a bit unfortunate that today's RNS includes the information that … "First oil is targeted for 1H 2019..".

Faceplant moment.

ATB

Hi Jonboy21,

" You do me too much honour " ;->

Definitely positive news, so far only seen the borrower's comments. Me, I prefer to wait and see what the lender has to say, esp. if there is any conditionality. We should have more detail in the next few days.

To be clear, the IMF OK is basically about restoring C-B to 'credible borrower' status, by saying it will help monitor/manage / support the country at a macro-eonomic level, including standby credit, to ease cash-flow. Think 'unadvised overdraft line'. It's not a blank cheque book.

What it will do is give political 'cover' for lots of other lenders - development banks, export credit agencies, multilaterals - to be open to financing requests that meet their respective lending criteria and objectives. The IMF will be monitoring as these are put forward and will usually have some say in prioritisation, giving comfort that C-B won't/can't overextend itself.
Think : someone checking that you don't sign up for 10 x new credit cards....

As others have commented, redirection of C-B economy away from oil dependency is a stated priority, so new port, enabling infrastructure and exploitation of resource base - mineral, agricultural and downstream related, should all be priorities.

Which - other things being equal - should put Zanaga square front and centre. With all that that entails. Let's see what, if anything GLEN has to say !

HTH, GLA and ATB

Hi Diversified
Pls clarify : your message gives no clue as to what point you're wanting to make !
ATB

Hi guys,
AFAIAA, there's about 80m of 283 that is with the BoD and a fair bit more in hands that might be considered 'sticky' (friends, employees, connected parties, early investors etc).

Some of the latter might be less sticky, given the passage of time and possible change in circs - death, divorce etc or just tax planning /inheritance issues.

Michelin Man did a survey a while back re potential PI holdings - does anyone know what that revealed (broad-brush, I'm not asking anyone to betray confidences) ?

Whether its 48 m or not, I think some hi volume days / trades will be a sign that something is underway....

ATB