Member Info for extrader

Hi all,

A very positive summary of 'the case for SRT'.

It seems unlikely that SRT (co or Tucker) would (a) not - at the very least - be aware of an upcoming IC article and (b) would 'greenlight' it if they thought there was any likelihood of some negative news in the near future.

I won't be at the 4th Sept AGM, it would be interesting if any of the regular attendees notice a heavier-than-usual representation by folks in suits *

ATB

* I sensed many years ago that Soco International (SIA) was about to be re-rated when someone observed that the normal AGM audience of jeans-and-bomber jacket or cardigan types were outnumbered by new faces in more formal attire....

Hi ww /AquaeSulis01,

The space for a drinks trolley is presumably an issue because

…"On a per weight basis, jet fuel gives around 43 times more energy than an equivalent battery "

and …"It (the e-plane) has a range of AROUND 81 miles".

And people fret about 'range anxiety' in an EV on the ground....

Don't turn the heater on, sir.

ATB

HiDanThePan,

..", so I take it your out topshare? "

The CIA is supposed to work on the basis that they listen to what people say, but plan according to their capabilities

If topshare is so convinced that GE's issues are material to the fortunes of lil' old NCCL, that would make it a screaming short at these levels.

People give a lot of credibility (rightly or wrongly) to Scott Fletcher when he puts his money where his mouth is , the same argument applies here.

ATB

Hi foresight 22,
Einstein is supposed to have declared compound interest as the 8th natural wonder of the world.

You're right to point to the Compound Natural Depletion Rate (= the rate at which - left unattended/uncorrected - oilfield production declines NATURALLY) of 3-4% a year. Fields producing , collectively, 100mbbl/day today will produce only 96 or 97 mbbl in 2020....

So, even supposing oil demand were to drop by your postulated 2 % p.a. (which some might challenge), the supply/demand dynamic is unlikely to change materially, as I understand it.

Macro-economics may affect short term, but nderlying demand seems pretty baked in........and supply is finite/falling, absent ongoing E and P.

ATB

Hi itsyou,

The new presentation is inconsistent.

On p6, the graphic suggests strongly that Hammerhead extends into Orinduik - maybe the 10 to 15% that has been oft mooted.
However, the TEXT says, much more cautiously, that " Hammerhead ALMOST CERTAINLY extends into Orinduik ".

Not the same thing at all, I would suggest !

ATB

Hi guys,

Some good points here !

GLEN is surely going to be under scrutiny from its shareholders re under-performance and what it plans to do about it....a 'quick fix' has to be tempting, esp. when the conditions are more favourable than they have been since IPO days.

Is anyone planning on going to the ZIOC AGM on 3rd September ?

ATB

Hi all,

Good for Scott !
I think peeps are blinded by the ££ involved and are overlooking some numbers.

No disrespect to Scott, but if he's worth £ 250m, then his stake here is about 0.7% of his net worth, ie a 'modest punt'.
So , probably less RISK than most of us here, self included ( NCCL is around 1 % in my case), esp given that he'll (legitimately) be better informed than most of us ( I'm sure his requests for clarification get answered !) and - with 8% - he may even get to be 'king-maker' if there's a contentious vote.....

And he's almost certainly got skilled accountants/ tax advisors who could help mitigate any adverse outcome.

So again, with respect, Mr Fletcher's risk/reward calculations are / should be different from us mere mortals...and his decisions irrelevant to our own.

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

Thanks for the link. An extract re debt :

…"“We’ve got no concerns about the levels of debt we’re at. Debt’s very strongly at about one-and-a-quarter times. It’s a very comfortable balance sheet in terms of positive free cash flow. We’re even looking to conservatively create more flexibility by making sure that one-and-a-quarter times goes south rather than north over the next six to 12 months, and looking to driving it towards one times,” he said...."

Have to say, that doesn't suggest that GLEN is in the mindset to take on significant debt eg major capex for an iron ore project any time soon...….but agree your point that might more likely be open to offers from A.N. Other to purchase its Zanaga 'option' and pay debt down....

Just have to wait and see, I guess.

ATB
PS GLEN don't seem to subscribe to the 'clean emissions ' argument for iron ore smelters, interestingly : now if they'd name-checked iron ore as a 'green metal' , we'd be off to the races.

Hi lyntip,

GLEN is discussing its halfyear 2019 results tomorrow......and the belief/ramp / hope amongst the twitterati is that they'll use the opportunity to address their perceived weakness in the iron ore sector...

Not long to wait !
ATB

Hi beardozer,

Thanks for clarifying.

I'm told (by people who know more about this than I do) that drug suppliers often reduce the price of their product to induce/maintain/encourage dependency.....

More seriously, I think GLEN ramped up production in the expectation of a surge in demand that failed to materialise (as electric vehicle growth has been less than the pundits / boosters forecast).

More generally, I'd like to think that GLEN might 'bury bad news' on that front by announcing a new initiative …….say, on the iron ore front. If you get my drift.

ATB

ATB

Hi allthatguff,

If you're referring to MM's twittering re Glencore on Reuters, that's a rehash from 5 Aug 2014...…;-<

Or are you referring to something else ?

Have to say that any frustrated bidders for Simandou ought to be considering an approach for Zanaga - on the face of it : higher quality, less 'political', technically more straightforward (slurry pipeline), a fraction of the cost, fewer conflicted interested parties etc etc.
Plus GLEN seem to be on the point of acknowledging that they need to 'pivot' to mining from trading, Glasenberg is (maybe) lessening his opposition to greenfield as his tenure end approaches, Freiberg is seemingly in the ascendant.

The macro-economic outlook isn't great, but I'm hopeful we'll see a perfect storm....

As the Omega /Cindy Crawford watch ad has it: 'Just ask yourself : if not now, when ? '

ATB

Hi ShrewdDude67,

You're welcome. As an addendum, these are the major shareholdings that ZIOC report (per the last A/R) :

Guava Minerals Limited1 80,252,592 28.34%
Keith Everitt 17,022,062 6.01%
PKC Capital Limited 16,971,041 5.99%
Julian Higgins 11,599,307 4.10%
AI Holdings Limited 8,706,621 3.07%

which is only around 47%.

BUT, BUT, BUT...…..this is after founder shareholder Garbet distributed its 41.49% (= 115.6 million ) shareholding to its founder shareholders, back in April 2017, per the attached :

…"The Company has been advised by Garbet Limited ("Garbet") that it has transferred its entire holding of 115,671,186 ordinary shares in the Company representing 41.49% of the Company's entire issued share capital to its shareholders and the underlying shareholders of its parent, Strata Limited ("Transfer").

As a result of the Transfer, Garbet ceased to hold any shares in the Company; Strata ceased to hold the shares of the Company transferred to it and the following persons acquired an interest in shares representing 3% or more of the Company's entire issued share capital:

Name Number of shares %
Salamanca Trustees (Jersey) Ltd (YR) 13,629,127 4.89
Leganes Limited 12,513,469 4.49%
Artemis Trust Limited (Hardwick) 11,916,534 4.27%
AI Holdings Limited 8,706,621 3.12%

Note : (1) these 17% are the entities that had declarable ie more than 3% stakes, the balance 24% aren't declarable but likely very sticky.
(2) post April 2017, there's been some tweaking between Salamanca/Leganes and PKC Capital that I haven't tracked.

Even so, if you take all the above into consideration ( 47% + 41.% +/- ) you can see how little 'free float' ZIOC has in reality.

For the 'outsider' PI's like ourselves this is of course something of a mixed blessing..

ATB

Hi ShrewdDude67,

…."Why would a chinese outfit pay say £1-2 /share for Ziocs 50-1 % when they could just buy up millions of shares on the open market at sub 10p as at present??..."

ZIOC has about 280 million shares in issue. Most are in the hands of the founders/developers and their friends. Remember, at IPO, only about 40 million shares were placed, 1/2 raising money for the co and 1/2 raising money for the founder developers (ie getting their money back). So the 'float ' was max 40 / 280 = 15% at IPO, maybe there's some more from less 'sticky' holders now.

So your prospective Chinese buyer can't buy a controlling interest without first tipping off the MM's that something's up (they have to instruct someone to buy for them) and then - assuming successful and the price hasn't raced away from them - going to the major holders and buying from them.

Look at how the price moves when we get more than a million traded a day and you'll see how thin the market is. Which is why, if/when there's news, the price will move significantly.
As we've seen in the past.
HTH and ATB

Hi beardozer,

…" A bit like digging your own grave or turkeys voting for Xmas...."
To be clear : are you talking about GLEN...or how you feel about your own actions as an investor in ZIOC ?

ATB

Hi technician,

A company can only be put into administration by a creditor who isn't paid (and starts a process) or voluntarily by the Board.
In ZIOC's case, they don't have many creditors at the moment....and any new creditors are likely to be needed because something tangible/material is FINALLY happening.....which is usually seen as a Good Thing.
Depending on circs, ZIOC could raise money via private placement, rights issue, Director loans or a combination. A lot would depend on amount needed and purpose.
If it's just to keep the lights on, it would probably be least disruptive if the BoD (who presumably have a vested interest in keeping things going) for a Shareholder loan.
This might suit them tactically anyway, since a loan would normally rank ahead of equity in the event of a subsequent wind-up proving necessary (see the recent Patisserie Valerie case and the treatment of Luke Johnson's shareholder loans, for example).

It might also be instructive to look at the position of NCCL (where there's some congruence/overlap of Developer shareholders with ZIOC) to see how they've dealt with their own funding issues in the past. They now seem to have got to the stage of securing major industrial partners to progress their coal mine/power station project in Mozambique, so maybe further down the track than us, but interesting potential read-across all the same.

HTH and ATB

Hi kdix
Thanks for clarifying. It's been a long day....
ATB

Hi badeli,

Thanks for this. However,
(a) from my reply to kidx, the RNS you quote includes the Chairman's comment that FC is 12 to 18 months away. This is the point (AIUI) where NCCL will receive (but maybe have to reinvest) whatever sums it is then due as Developer, ie your proposed source of repayment.

(b) From the extract you quoted, last 3 sentences, it seems that -as of 5 weeks ago - the position was that the BoD is looking at 'refinance and extension solutions' and that the Company is looking at options to 'raise ADDITIONAL [my bold] funding and refinance or convert the Loan'. The conversion option MAY (I don't fully understand the mechanism) entail some material dilution.
This suggests to me that we're not out of the woods yet.

In more positive vein, Scott Fletcher has just surfaced on ADVFN, see below

Hi. Scott Fletcher here

What you are talking about here is market manipulation and given that I’m on the board of FCA regulated companies I am fully aware of what I can and can’t do in that regard

For the record I bought at the high as I thought this was going much higher but I obviously also bought a lot lower as people have sold for what reason I don’t know

Lowest price I have paid this week is 6.68 - there were none available at 6.5

Anyone interested in my views on the company can take a look over on twitter

I am not linked to any of the idiot posters on here who constantly talk nonsense - you know who they are.

I do however appreciate any insights so that we can all understand better what we are invested in.

Good look all - do your own research and invest wisely - not investment advice etc.

My Twitter is @scottjfletcher
scottf
30 Jul '19 - 18:45 - 7425 of 7425
0 0 0
Here is my twitter post from earlier today

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottJFletcher/status/1156163629370265600

ATB

Hi kdix,

Thanks for this. But the JDA timeline I quoted was later (ie 26 June 2019) than the December 2018 presentation ie the position as they understood it to be 5 weeks ago....

Hence my Q.
Cheers

Hi again,

Thanks for addressing my query re Scott Fletcher, he's an interesting and obviously successful businessman, let's hope he's chosen wisely here too.
(1) I'm not clear about the time horizons here, post JDA : people are talking as though Financial Close is 'imminent', when I go to the last A/R I read : …"the Project is at an advanced level of development and will be advanced once the JDA has been executed and the Company focusses on achieving FC. The Company expects FC to take between 12 and 18 months post JDA execution...." ;

(2) The Shareholder Loan falls due 30 November 2019, it looks as though - post partial conversion of Loan to shares - there's about US$ 4.7 M repayable. Has there been any news re repayment/rollover intentions, the uncertainty may be a contributor to the (to me and many, it would seem) surprising share price softness.

All informed comment/speculation welcome !
TIA and ATB

Hi all,

Somewhat late to the party.

I see Scott Fletcher has upped his stake to 7% of NCCL, per yesterday's RNS.

Is this him ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Fletcher_(entrepreneur)

and, if so, does anyone have a sense of his other investments....and why a specialist in cloud computing would be interested in NCCL ? Connections ?

TIA and ATB