Member Info for extrader

Hi Hallowed,

I think the situation is maybe a bit more nuanced :

- Unless we know why TF didn't go down the note issuance route, it's not clear what it's 'telling' : after all, SYME itself has talked of the same thing and hired Stuart Nelson last July from S + P Global Ratings, at least in part with a similar goal in mind : .."Mr Nelson will provide additional support to the platform's capital placing process .."

- You speculate that slow digital B/L takeup and guarantees might have been a factor in the agencies not proceeding. These factors would normally affect TF's ability to process transactions efficiently/turnaround times, not the credit rating itself.

- until it's up and working, hopefully soon with first IM, SYME (or your ?) pointing to its platform as a selling point seems moot;

- SYME will INITIALLY have 3 % dilution on the terms as described; we don't know what the earn-out terms are , so can't quantify potential further dilution , esp. if SYME doesn't exercise the cash alternative that it MAY have.

- the first CLN tranche is actually redeemable anytime @ 102.5% of par, for any subsequent tranches SYME can only redeem for cash 50% within the 1st 12 months of CLN issuance. Negma, meanwhile , appears to be able to convert loans to shares at any time, from 5 days after issuance.

- if it started to do this, SYME could of course always stop subscribing for further tranches, but if it still needed working capital, which it appears to - at least 1 tranche (assuming 1st tranche largely used to pay for TF's £ 4m) - then it would have to agree ...or find another source of funds.

- cashflow drives s/p, not the other way round. Negma is a necessary evil and hopefully only short term fix , the important thing is to actually close on one (or more) of the other financing sources for SYME's SPC's and get the 'platform' up and running.

- I don't think we know the status of TF's existing funding arrangements (AIUI, TF Capital Management is effectively the SPC in its structure , and TJ seems to be saying that they're already constrained) and their potential - if any - to upstream and contribute to pooled resources is an unknown.

IMO

Hopefully not long before

Cameroon will be 'in the driving seat, bro', to coin a phrase, since it will control access routes to export. PanAfrican co-operation usually founders at this point (because it determines who controls revenues and where they go......;-<)

If Nguesso doesn't want to lose out, he better get his skates on with the rehabilitation of the existing rail link from buddy Paul Obambi's Sapro Mayoko mine to the coast / PN...!

Late to the party here, but the question about the independent valuer and how he/she arrived at the £ 31m valuation is - or should be - of interest to SYME shareholders.

The RTO that brought SYME to London (a different type of 'acquisition' ) was also supported by an independent professional valuation (valuer likewise unidentified) - of approx £ 224 million - based on a premium to NAV [ ie 'goodwill'] for the 'intangible value on the strategy proposed by the Board and the human capital contained in the Board, as well as reflecting the costs incurred in the Acquisition, Placing and Admission.'

That valuation - contained in the Prospectus (selling document) of 4 March 2020 was used to justify the issue of 32. 3 billion Consideration Shares, to pay for this 'intangible value'.

Less than 4 weeks later, SYME reported that for FYE 31 March 2020 .." Exceptional costs of GBP224m have been written off as a result of [a change in ] the treatment of goodwill and the accounting for the transaction ".
The facts.

History may not repeat itself, but it does sometime rhyme....and it's not unreasonable to 'kick the tyres' a bit and want to know a bit more about the identity of the valuer this time round ; how they arrived at the £ 31m valuation; and whether the consideration TJ and associates are to receive is at a premium or discount to that figure.
The observation.

Not least because most current shareholders will have bought Consideration Shares (not Placing shares) and will have handed over good money that has benefitted the seller and not SYME.
The speculation.

.."The only link I've found is historic acquaintances between AZ and TJ through music, and a link to Tom Bennett..."

TJ and Tom Bennett have both been interested in AI for a long time. Fact.

AI was probably a pretty small community 10-15 years ago. Speculation.

That would be a second connection.

HTH

Somewhat O/T, but here's another useful repurposing for 'Track and trace ' :

.."Week by week the costs of Test and Trace are adding up. Not only are thousands of contact-tracers being employed, but there are the economic, social and educational costs of ordering people to stay at home.
The resources being sunk into the system would be much better used in tracking down people who have not yet been vaccinated (32 per cent of black over-fifties have not been jabbed, compared with 6 per cent of white) and finding out if anything would persuade them to have the jab..."

IMO

In similar 'poor customer service' vein, PM Makosso calls out bureaucrats in today's 'depeches' , pointing out C-B's ranking - 179th or 180th out of 192 countries - for 'ease of doing business'.

He (or his speechwriter) is at least 'talking the talk'.

I particularly like this bit :

.."taking the first steps towards digitising the clinical research process to make it faster and cheaper by beginning to create a holistic data-enabled Find, Recruit and Follow-up service..."

Given the prospective shortage of naive (ie uninfected) CHIM volunteers - as we approach 'herd immunity' throuch natural infection and vaccination rollout - perhaps we could re-purpose the otherwise ineffectual 'Track and Trace' system to locate THESE people...

;->

'Poor customer service' always brings this to mind

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZw35VUBdzo

let's hope it's not ZIOC that's 'resting'.

Behind FT paywall, but gist seems clear :

"Coal: fossil fuel is burning bright despite renewable energy drive
Blame China for breathing life into a moribund industry."
June 24, 2021

Or 'I was a bit sceptical about orthopaedic insoles.....but I stand corrected "

Denis fils being groomed for higher things? Which Ministry is i/c the local police ?

The Ambassador Head of the European Union (EU) Delegation to the Congo, Raul Mateus Paula, announced on 23 June in
Brazzaville funding [Euro 5 million] from its institution intended to support the functioning of the Congolese police.

He made this announcement following an exchange with the Minister of International Cooperation and the Promotion of Public Private Partnership, Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso in the company of the French Ambassador to C-B.

See closing comments :

.."We should also remember that Supply@Me Capital announced last October 2020 that it was working on a partnership with a European bank that can act as an investor in all the securitisations that it will gradually Supply@Me bring to the market (see another article by BeBeez). The transaction involves the acquisition of the bank itself by the controlling shareholders of Supply@Me together with an alternative fund, which last December was known to be the Industry 4.0 fund managed by Quadrivio Group with which the scaleup had begun negotiations, but not yet binding. In the note circulated at the time, the company confirmed that the transaction should close by the first quarter of 2021 (see another article by BeBeez)..."

Reminder that AZ needs to update on status of supervisory authority permission.

Fair enough. I'll start :

I'm positive re ORPH's trajectory , as I understand it.

Hard info is sometimes at variance with the spiel.

But what I really don't like is CF's occasional 'playing to the groundlings' :

- what's with attacking majority shareholder Imutex for being slow(er) to deliver than he'd like ? He's been slower to deliver than WE would like , FFS ! Is this childish behaviour somehow supposed to motivate them to get a move on ? I just don't get it.

- and as for his repeated references to the Chinese 'caSinovac' - OK, it was mildly funny to hear it the first time, but NOT repeated - and repeated again - in public fora : he's said it 3 or 4 times now.
The cultural concept of 'face ' makes this sort of mockery of the Chinese bad at the best of times, but they're on the defensive over various aspects of the coronavirus story anyway, which makes this 'leg-pulling' doubly crass, IMO.

This just seems incredibly short-sighted and counter-productive, quite possibly with attendant negative financial repercussions.

And the biggest concern - because unknown/unquantifiable - if Cathal is a loose cannon in public, who else might he be upsetting, away from public view ?

IMO

Also coverage of a new CFA 100 billion claimed (US$ 175m) PPP for a shopping mall and residential complex on 10 acres of river frontage in Brazzaville, a modernisation project 'dear to the President's heart'.

New PM Makosso's statement of intent (per depeches) :

.."Aware of the fact that it cannot resolve the current crisis by its own means, the government has made a commitment to send strong signals in terms of improving governance to all partners. To do this, it intends to continue negotiations with
all private actors, bilateral and multilateral partners including the IMF. The goal is to lighten the weight of the state debt ; mobilize external and internal resources ; revive and diversify the economy.

With regard to the IMF, the new program will benefit from the catalyst role of this institution with multilateral and bilateral partners with the improvement of the signature and credibility of the country in financial markets. It will also reduce the cost of state debt; and enable access to new IMF program called the Common Framework (possibility of debt rescheduling
over 30 years) from which already three African countries have benefitted.

"We also intend to re-launch negotiations with all private, creditors bilateral or multilateral, to make state debt sustainable and free up budgetary margins/ additional funds for the financing of our economy ”.

Suggests PM (or his speech-writer) understands what needs doing...and C-B acknowledgs that bilateral creditor GLEN has some cards to play.

What will C-B offer in return ? Some 'joined up thinking' might not go amiss.

Maybe Dominique Strauss Kahn (Nguesso's debt adviser as was ) has some ideas.

I've emailed ir@ORPH re staff costs and 'other expenses' , asking for a breakdown re the latter and whether - for both - the numbers for 2020 are a baseline going forward.

.."TradeFlow currently has 30x more business than they have funds for... "

Well, at least they appear to have some funds, aka a 'denominator'.

Using that logic, SYME - with 'Gross originations*' of Euro 2.4 Bn (as at April 1) and currently NO identified/identifiable source of funds for Inventory Monetisation - is clearly in a much better indeed, literally, infinitely better - place !

*[1] "Gross origination" includes all client companies that have signed an NDA, a term sheet, or are in, or have completed, the onboarding process. For clarity, the gross origination also includes commercial opportunities postponed or lost/ not eligible.

Mathematical facts.

All this will change, of course, as and when funders come on line.

Probable fact.

This may be a bit of a long read, but deffo worth it, IMO

hxxps://fs.blog/2016/04/narrative-fallacy/

Thanks for this.

Shome muddled thinking, Shirley ?

.."Personally, I’m not interested in having Poolbeg Pharma in my portfolio.[ You won't : that ship has sailed] At least, not at the moment.[ Reason ?] Therefore, even though the ORPH share price has fallen, I won’t be buying any shares until after the demerger is complete.[ Reason ? see above : what happens to POLB now doesn't affect the merits of ORPH either way].."

AIUI

Switch to 'thread view' , in green on right hand side ?

.."Richardson would be an idiot not to take some off the table.."

No idea about his personal circs, myself, he could also hedge his bets and just write some covered options and generate some income whilst waiting for the market to catch up...

IMO