RE: Desired objectives?2 Jul 2021 23:11
AT called a little earlier today, the Nomad having forwarded to him my email to them.
He stated their view that there was no regulatory obligation to update but recognised the frustration that many shareholders might legitimately be feeling.
We spoke for the better part of 30 mins in a wide-ranging conversation , but everything ultimately coming back to the difficult position of trying to achieve 'a change in the dynamics' without being able to say what ZIOC was working on.
Specifically , he said
- unlikely to see a change in GLEN's attitude to greenfield, shared not just by Ivan and Gary but by the ExCom;
- where GLEN had done iron ore projects, they'd been brownfield or offtake involvement;
- the recent doubling up on Colombian coal despite ESG considerations was driven by influential/interested shareholders;
-he acknowledged (MItch's point ?) that there'd been a slowdown on COIDIC side, said this seemed to be as much from internal changes as anything else; coronavirus, meanwhile, was a headwind for everyone;
- re the recent revocation of CongoMining Mayoko Moussendji license, he said that they - unlike Zanaga - couldn't show they'd been actively trying to move things along ; he confirmed that Zanaga had never received any official complaint or approach on this matter;
- Simandou at best would only cover 10 % of China's iron ore imports, China seemed to be looking to Brazil to reduce further its current dependency on Australia;
- I asked re Forrest/Fortescue Mining visits to the area, AT wouldn't comment other than to say that Forrest was one of the few Oz miners who didn't share his compatriots' complacency that China would always be dependent on Australian ore;
- the current high ore price only adds to the frustration; as to cyclicality vs 'commodity supercycle' , AT said the Project remained attractive at $ 70/62% = $ 85 / 65%, esp. in view of lower impurities;
- he acknowledged shareholders 'opportunity cost' concerns, said that he and team were acutely aware of this' having salary-sacrificed the last couple of years' - he also said that none of the shares in lieu had been sold;
- he several times said things to the effect that 'there's a reason for our radio silence' but acknowledged that giving any timing would be a hostage to fortune. He conceded that he might have to reconsider his own position at some point, but 'not for at least a couple of years'.
My take hasn't changed substantially , ZIOC's task is to come up with something that gets GLEN's blessing, what that might be - in the words of the late Donald Rumsfeld - is a 'known unknown'.
With no apparent threat to licences and the overall macro-environment generally positive, it seems there's still an outside chance there'll be a breakthrough at some point. So ZIOC remains a high risk / maybe high reward position for me...and is sized accordingly.
HTH, NAI, DYOR, E& OE, AIUI etc, etc.
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