Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
And, coincidentally/conveniently - hat tip to MM - we learn that PIF is usefully 'cashed up' :
"(WSJ) Saudi Arabia has moved a roughly $160 billion stake in its state oil giant into its main sovereign wealth fund...."
Ho hum.
Hi Jiving
Not your typical contribution! Comes a bit out of left field, as it were...
;->
https://www.geordiebootboys.com/takeover/carla-dibello-opens-up-on-the-saudi-backed-newcastle-takeover-pif-staveley/
.."Staveley tried and failed to buy the club previously, but this time she is working with the financial muscle of PIF. That appears to have been the gamechanger for PCP.
Would PIF and Staveley have came together without DiBello? Possibly not. She has worked a lot in Saudi Arabia, and spoke about PIF’s investment plans..."
This lass is at least easier on the eye than most of the 'intermediaries' that usually crop up when big deals are hatched.
Whatever it takes, IMO.
Have a great weekend.
ATB
Another take on Argentina, from Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cognitive-investments-welcomes-jacob-l-130000396.html
.. I think there’s a lot of interesting things happening around the world, but I really do think Argentina is an interesting place to keep focused. Now, I’m not saying that Milei is going to be able to turn it around, and he’s got a long road to hoe, but part of me wonders, is this... Brazil had a moment like this around ‘94, ‘95 where they had hyperinflation, and they really had to reset things, and they had to think very clearly about structural reforms. It took them until about now to get to the point where all of that was starting to pay off.
I wonder if Argentina is at the very, very beginning moments of that, where we finally ticked bottom, and that Milei is a signal that people want real change there.
It’s interesting because from a geopolitical perspective, Argentina has everything you possibly could want. It’s the entrance to the Rio de la Plata, really doesn’t have any rivals around it that are going to threaten it, it can play all sides, ample resources that it can export. They have their own version of the shale revolution happening, so they’re going to add hydrocarbons to the list.
If you could just—but people have been saying this about Argentina for 100 years too—but if you could just get them to change their culture... and maybe it takes a guy who communes with his dead dog to get election strategy to be the man to push it forward.
As we’re looking back at 2023 and 2024, I wonder if we’ll say, “That was the year that Argentina finally started to change.” It’s a very interesting political experiment that’s happening..."
GLA and ATB
I listened to YPF Q4/FYE results presentation the other day.
Presentation by 3 x execs, in English, somewhat wooden 'talking to teleprompter' and slides supporting commentary that were difficult to read and only shown briefly. Interesting background footage of YPF operations and the Argentine countryside.
My summary take-away :
- YPF has a 4x4 plan - to quadruple the share price in 4 years. The way it hopes to do this shows the extent of economic mismanagement (but also potential):
- it wants to divest a large part of its bloated historic businesses (60% of its oil production + 40% of its gas production) that together contribute barely 1% - 1% !- to the bottom line;
- it hopes to have awarded an arranger mandate for multiple discrete privatisations by end Q1 2024 and have the divestment process underway by Q3 2024;
- use the proceeds (+ external funding + 'strategic partner') to develop its world-class LNG potential (hitherto unexploited) over the next 3-4 years (leasing floating LNG plants to kickstart the process), with eventual targets of 25-30 mtpa and $ 15Bn pa export earnings;
[Ed.: for comparison, Qatar 77mtpa; Australia 44mtpa; Malaysia 24mtpa; Nigeria 22mtpa; Indonesia 16mtpa; Algeria 12mtpa; Russia 10mtpa; Trinidad 10mtpa; Oman 8mtpa];
- divestment/privatisation is expected to unlock the 'hidden value' of assets-for-sale (hidden by bloated workforces, financial mismanagement and unproductive past 'politically-directed' investment), YPF counting on est. cost-savings of $ 800m pa as much as on actual sale proceeds [Ed.: management understandably reticent to quantify these];
- all the while, YPF expects to build on the 25% contribution of renewables (solar/wind) to the current bottom line.
Management fielded questions from UBS, JP Morgan, Santander, BTG Pascual and - I think- Seb Maril's LatAm Securities, with what I thought were fairly vague answers to a lot of the harder questions, perhaps understandably so, given the 'uncharted waters' that Argentina is now in.
I've had a shareholding in both BUR and YPF for a while now, am comfortably up on both and see no reason atm to divest.
NAI, DYOR, E&OE etc etc
Thanks to LaValmy for this :
hTTps://globalnation.inquirer.net/226476/ph-looks-to-3-key-allies-for-external-defense
Two trillion PHP is about £28 billion.
.."UK ventures
Earlier last week, Teodoro [Defence Minister] met with Richard Graham, the UK Prime Minister’s trade envoy, and their discussions included “the South China Sea, and potential avenues for collaboration in defense and investment,” under a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation signed in January by Manila and London.
Teodoro and Graham “expressed interest in exploring joint ventures with British investors and other forms of cooperation to support” the revised AFP modernization program..." etc.
Let's hope, meanwhile, that the UKEF paperwork for Indonesia is indeed all very close to being completed – hopefully this month or just the other side.
GLA and ATB
Per Seb, the litigation just started in London Commercial court isn't BUR-financed
.."Petersen/Eton are financing the motion to recognize Judge Preska’s NY YPF judgment in London’s Commercial Court. Pertersen is using its own funds while Eton has pledge future earnings from the award. Burford is not financing this action. A recognition of the judgment occurs when the recipient of the award is seeking to enforce a judgment in a different jurisdiction from the original ruling..."
Although BUR 'not involved', I hope that this has their tacit approval, and isn't a case of the clients 'going rogue'....and possibly 'muddying the waters' (groan) in NY.
GLA
InvestingGenius (sic) has excelled himself.
On his curated thread, he's excited about a DailyMail article extolling the benefits of cannabis for treating sports-related head injuries, specifically an endorsement by an Australian rugby club of Alternaleaf.
.."Medicinal marijuana primarily focuses on the use of products containing CANNABIDIOL ('CBD'), which are not smoked, do NOT deliver a high and provide a range of health benefits for athletes including potential treatment for the SYMPTOMS OF CONCUSSION..."
All good stuff, to be sure.
The 'Our First Harvest' board intro tells us that :
.."HELD will be SPECIFICALLY GROWING HIGH THC VARIETIES, in large quantities, which is not legally allowed in most jurisdictions.
Hence why it seems they will be supplying the NHS here
‘to be the supplier of choice to the NHS of high-quality, competitively priced and fully regulated THC-DOMINANT medical cannabis.’....
I think the polite description is 'cognitive dissonance'.
hxxps://www.verywellhealth.com/cbd-vs-thc-
.."Cannabidiol (CBD) is a cannabinoid compound found in the cannabis plant. It does not produce a high because it does NOT have THC in it. It can produce relaxation or sleepiness. It has antioxidant (neutralizes destructive oxygen free radicals in cells) and ANTI-INFLAMMATORY properties."
HTH and ATB
My understanding from the article re Germany that I recently posted was that the electrolysis process for green hydrogen was a continuous one (ie constant electricity supply) and the issue in Germany was that wind/solar intermittency left the grid as backstop.
See 'The elephant in the room' thread begun 25 Feb 19:27
In Germany's case, its planned green hydrogen production implied a backstop requirement of up to 7 % of Germany's electricity production...which would mean running (or actually firing up) its (dirty) coal powered plants to provide baseload for its (green) hydrogen....and has already lead to quiet abandonment of the commitment to shut down coal by 2030, now kicked to 2038...
Presumably the same intermittency/dependency issues would apply to the UK ?
AIUI
See Poolefax's link.
The backstory was reported a few days ago :
.."Of only tangential interest here, BUR's largest (10.5%) shareholder, Saudi's entrepreneurial Mithaq Capital has just swooped on a distressed US retail company :
hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/children-s-place-s-stock-pops-21-after-investor-group-takes-majority-stake/ar-BB1ijZ9S
Market comment highlights aggressive, contrarian and opportunistic approach to business..."
HTH
Hi catbert,
No worries, indeed!
My point, obv not expressed well enough, was that it was 'home-grown' Europe green steel that was snookered because of its (necessary) reliance on the grid ...except for hydroelectric.
The unquoted bits of the article make clear that the M East doesn't have the same problem , (a) because solar is less intermittent and (b) because it call always fall back on natgas.
The 'look at other feedstock' to redress the balance was a plug for 'green ore'....and hence ZIOC.
HTH and ATB
See today's RNS. Now 18.5m shares (8.5 %)
Mithaq prev had 10.5% (23m shares), so have sold down. I wonder who took them up?
Mithaq is the family investment co of the principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world by capital and one of the largest joint stock co's in Saudi Arabia.
GLA
Quite, marcusg71,
Esp. given that there appear to be 'issues' with another leg of the 'green steel' production process - hydrogen - that this WoodMac article exposes :
https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/carbon-rules-can-muddy-the-waters/?utm_campaign=the-edge
Basically, it seems that almost any hydrogen produced by electrolysis other than from hydroelectric source (think : Norway, Quebec) comes with 'baggage' that diminishes - or even negates - its overall 'green' credentials.....
.."genuinely green hydrogen has a very low carbon intensity, typically between zero and 0.5 kgCO2eq/kgH2. That’s 20 times lower than blue, 50 times lower than grey and 100 times lower than brown. But that’s only if green hydrogen is produced using renewable power – and solar and wind’s variability sharply reduces electrolyser utilisation, driving costs up.
The 24/7 solution is to plug the electrolyser into the local grid during renewables downtime to maximise electrolyser utilisation. Therein lies the problem. Most grids are a long way from zero emissions so using grid-power will increase the carbon intensity of the produced green hydrogen. On our calculations, electrolytic hydrogen produced from 100% grid power can have even higher carbon intensity than brown hydrogen...." etc
Oops!
Better look at the other feedstock elements, guys!
AFAICS
There appear to be 'issues' with one leg of the 'green steel' production process - hydrogen - that this WoodMac article exposes :
https://www.woodmac.com/news/the-edge/carbon-rules-can-muddy-the-waters/?utm_campaign=the-edge
Basically, it seems that almost any hydrogen produced by electrolysis other than from hydroelectric source (think : Norway, Quebec) comes with 'baggage' that diminishes - or even negates - its overall 'green' credentials.....
.."genuinely green hydrogen has a very low carbon intensity, typically between zero and 0.5 kgCO2eq/kgH2. That’s 20 times lower than blue, 50 times lower than grey and 100 times lower than brown. But that’s only if green hydrogen is produced using renewable power – and solar and wind’s variability sharply reduces electrolyser utilisation, driving costs up.
The 24/7 solution is to plug the electrolyser into the local grid during renewables downtime to maximise electrolyser utilisation. Therein lies the problem. Most grids are a long way from zero emissions so using grid-power will increase the carbon intensity of the produced green hydrogen. On our calculations, electrolytic hydrogen produced from 100% grid power can have even higher carbon intensity than brown hydrogen...." etc
Oops!
Better look at the other feedstock elements, guys!
AFAICS
GLA
Hi Brigra, thanks for this!
This is the Quillan partner (founder) involved hxxps://www.lexology.com/firms/1325267/Mark_Hastings
.."For over five years, Mark acted for notable oligarch Boris Berezovsky, now deceased, in several signature cases. In Gorbunova v Berezovsky (2013), Mark succeeded in setting aside a £300 million worldwide freezing order obtained by his client’s former long-term partner, who made several claims against him. In Berezovsky v Hine & Ors (2011), Mark acted in a number of separate multi-billion-dollar actions arising from an alleged joint venture between CIS oligarchs, in a case involving freezing orders, search and seizure orders, jurisdiction disputes, complex issues of Russian law and Russian asset valuation. In Berezovsky v Abramovich (2012), Mark acted in $6 billion Commercial Court proceedings concerning Russian oil and aluminium assets, with the three month trial described by the international media as the most significant private court case ever..."
'Don't mention the Malvinas, ...'
Ho hum
Could someone with a legal background comment on whether this might have any impact on the progress of BUR's New York litigation, pls?
FT today : New York moves to rewrite law on sovereign debt default recovery
.."New York lawmakers have moved to limit how much creditors can recover from defaulted sovereign debt in the state's jurisdiction, ..."
rest behind paywall.
The issues are set out here hxxps://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/briefings/2023/05/sovereign_debt_restructuring_three_new_york_assembly_active_bills.pdf
but I'm having a Paddington moment :'I am a bear of very little brain and long words bother me'.
;-
Ashmore latest re Argentina : still a 'going concern'...
.."Argentina: Speaking at the opening of the legislative year in Congress, President Javier Milei called on governors and political leaders for a “great national agreement”. The foundations of the request are the approval of liberal economic policies and political reforms to reduce the influence of interest groups (such as unions) that have historically opposed those changes. In more substantive terms, the Executive is seeking a preliminary agreement to allow for a new set of legislations increasing its powers, deregulating the economy, increasing incentives for large investments and a new pension indexation regime. Governors have an incentive to embrace the broad pledge to avoid further deterioration of their fiscal position in the near term, since a large part of federal transfers to regions is discretionary, but are still likely to play hardball on the negotiations of the actual bills in Congress...."
ATB
And it's not obvious that the CLN has been closed...
The payment in shares just made (equiv to £21,322) appears to be the 6% drawdown fee on the First Instalment of $ 450,000 advanced last October :
- $450,000/1.25 x 6% = £ 21,600
So HELD appears to have taken 4 1/2 months to settle the drawdown fee....
The s/p was 7p equivalent then, so the tardiness in settlement means that HELD has had to issue over twice as many shares in lieu...
I wonder whether this is a precursor to Drawdown of the second tranche $300,000 mentioned in the October RNS.
GLA