Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Linton78 - which environment? I agree, a buyer will love a bargain. But oil and gas prices are at pre-covid levels. If Cas-1 perform like Carapal ridge it will flow for 20+ years with minimal opex/capex.
Who can predict the future price of oil&gas? Maybe this is the bottom for the next 10 years?
This is a convential well to be drained with a few straws. A money machine when on stream.
My portofolio has taken a beating in the recent week. Heavily overweighted in TXP compared to my other investments.
But the stock is now on sale. Time to pick up some shares.
Again, I'm back to the "Fun with Touchstone numbers" (google it) article, which I consider to be fairly "spot on". All credits to H y d r a C a p i t a l.
Aventura was bought by BP in 2004 with 2p reserves of 300 bcf in the Central Block of Trinidad. Price C$228 million. Domestic price of gas in Trinidad was US$ 1.10 mcf. BG paid C$0.76 pr Mcf for the assets.
CAS-1 - ALONE- is 270 bcf 2p reserves (same-ish) according to the year-end reserves report. We have a fixed price of ~ US$2.50. What will a potential buyer pay? Let's assume a (too) big discount of 50% of the US$2.50 for the gas in the ground. Thats US$1.25 pr mcf. Converted to CAD. Thats - 1.58 pr MCF
270 000 000 mcf x CAD 1.58= C$426 million.
This is without oil fields, Coho, Chinook, Cascadura Deep... And all the prospects.
I'm still smiling. I struggle to find shares with similar risk/reward. This is on a massive discount.
We're not a pure wildcat company. We have proven assets verified by GLJ.
I'm leaving my shares for the full story. Carapal ridge is fantastic. Cascadura (deep) looks similar/better. With all the prospects still to go - it got to be more of them. Royston? Steelhead?
I think we will see a change in communication from now on. I honestly think it was a big surprise for the management as well. They will probably change their approach going forward -communication-wise.
The Block seems to be full of surprises. True exploration. Initially, after Cas-1 drill, it was a "oil well". Thankfully, it was not.
The problem was Chinook mentioned as "world-class" and Cas deep "best well to date" (could still be). PB is smart and have learned.
New 2d seismic in the Royston area. They are learning a lot with every drill. It's all about understanding the seismic and the geology. 2 steps forward, 1 back.
No reason to sell now. Probably valued correctly with what we know now - without production. Nothing for the prospects.
To repair some trust. Get the pipeline done and the money flowing. Happy easter from the snowy, norwegian mountains!
I think it was a big surprise for PB as well. They expected a oil well from the start, but changed it to a gas prospect after Cascadura which was believed to be oil. Back then, after Cas-1 drill, Paul communicated to the market about a oil well, but it was gas. We got suprised to the upside then.
What will happen know? Paul will most likely not say a thing before testing is finished on future wells.
Hmm. Just read through a presentation from 2018. I know Chinook has been mentioned as a broader structure than Cascadura. I've understood that Cascadura prospect is called Balata East North (BW-5) and Chinook (BW-7/7x) in the presentation, where both were believed to be oil wells.
Balata West South (Chinook)
Presentation: Estimated 691 feet of net pay
They found 589 feet of net pay. Pretty accurate. Good seismic and old drilling data.
Whats interesting?
Estimated volumetric oil in place:
70 mmbbls (risked) 281 mmbbls (unrisked)
It was always believed to be huge. More reserves than Cascadura. Exciting times.
Sometimes I just have to remind myself - after checking the SP too often.
I'm a co-owner of the company. I own a part of it. I don't care about day-day/week-week valuations. I'm here to see my company unlock the full value of the block. The management have done well so far and I know the best is yet to come. The CEO bought shares @2.64 in february. Probably thinking the Company isn't correctly valuated - I agree.
What a great place to be!
Overpriced...
I don't know much about LSE companies, but in Norway, it's been crazy. Talking about overpriced, the word ESG, everything is overpriced compared to this. Companies that never will earn a penny is IPO'ed at mcaps equal to 100 - 500 mill £ with fantasy stories about "saving the world". Half of them will not exist in 10 years. Everything - in a country made of oil (don't say it loud).
Predator can unlock values that can make this company do 10x in a year or two (Morocco). They will likely hit "something". It's on trend with proven gas fields. Conocophilips picked up the neighbor acreage. They have the other segments as well.
With rising yields investors will find companies with actual earnings and value.. At some point.
Or short-term solution:
Change the company name to "Predator green energy solutions" and dual-list it in Oslo... ha ha
I don't know Chariot, but read some of the latest RNS's. They had £5.8 mill in cash last june. No Debt. Found about a tcf of gas.
"The development plan from a Pre-FEED study consists of two subsea wells tied into a subsea manifold with a 40km offshore flowline connected to an onshore gas processing facility, from which a short 40km pipeline connects to the trunk pipeline to Europe allowing access not only to the growing Moroccan energy market but also to the European gas market."
Key:
Seems to me Char needs to build a 40 km offshore flowline . Who's going to pay for it? Debt?
Predator needs a 2 km onshore pipeline (and the gas...) No Debt. Will monetize fast.
I'll go with the 2k onshore cable stuff...
Remember early days in TXP. Was 30% down after my first buy-in (~0.20p~), without news, nothing. A few months later - > proved to be a lifechanging investment. Predator is a diversified business. Trading at low mcap. A sniff of commercial gas in Morrocco will change this company, for sure. And its still a many-legged monster.
Agree, corpse. Watched the interview for the first time yesterday. PB makes a really good impression (as always). To the point, conservative, no b*ll****. I love his approach.
Talking about what we have, and the future prospects. Even after being here since 0,20's (CAD), I will continue to add monthly/at dips when r/r is this good.
I'm really confident we're talking multiple TCF's of gas on Ortoire.
And Kraken, wow.. Could be the same stuff the biggest oil players in the world are looking for in Guyana/Suriname. But this is onshore!! I know it's impossible, but best thing would be to put this share in the drawer, and come back in a year.
Probably 100%s - later - and a dividend.
I will gladly take a fat dividend. But my gut feeling is saying that a takeover is likely. Drill exploratory wells at different prospects -> prove up the block -> set up development programs for future production.
Touchstone needs to get a few wells into productions to get cash to drill as much as possible within a few years. There are no major shareholders now, but what about in two years?
A lot of time to pick up some shares. And if someone would double/tripple my money today, I would probably say yes. The SP fell almost 20% after the word "delay" was mentioned in a fantastic reserves report. I think it's safe to say that a lot of shareholders is thinking short-term.
I think the key thing is to drill as much as possible, different prospects, prove up reserves. Paul Baay sold "his" former company after reaching 20000 boepd, so he has sold business before.
The economics in this projects are unbeatable. It's big enough to compete with offshore discoveries, but the opex and capex cost are way better. The bigger players will love it.
PB has been asked this question many times. His last answer was that Touchstone still is too small for the big guys. I also remember from a earlier interview that PB said that at some point the project can be to big for a small company like Touchstone. At current tempo it will take years to get things into production, even with 2-3 rigs. Maybe a JV partner? Time will show.
Opinions? I think we're massively undervalued. Still multi-bagger potential, backed by fundamentals. PB actually talking about Royston alone is a TCF - shows great confidence. Cascadura - fully developed, probably close to a TCF. Try using the metrics above. It's multi-bagger potential from here, minimal downside. The management is buying in the open market. Great stuff. Patience is needed.
Or you can hodl Tesla.