Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
If things are going as planned it was end of January? I quess the EWT this is a standardized procedure and we'll get our answers when it's finished. Good or bad. I'm looking forward to hear the latest update on the Coho "weeks, not months" project.
Agree with the SP taking another dip with a "failed" EWT at Royston, but no reason to compare it to ADV. TXP is de-risked, you'll only need that ........ patience........ A dip at TXP is most likely a buying opportunity. I've not breaked my piggy bank to buy ADV on the "dip".
The positive. On the operational side, the company seems busier than ever. Legacy wells drilling in the bakgrund, Royston extended test, Coho pipeline finishing(???) Substansial newsflow to come in 2022 on many fronts.
All credit to one of Moonans presentations where I found som interesting stuff regarding Corosan-1 drilled in 2001. It never came on production, but they performed six DSTs (drill stem tests).
Overall from six zones/tests:
1723 bbls water.
1400 boed - gas
From the two gas zones:
5760 - 5768 feet
5500 - 5516 feet.
1400 boed - 680 bbls water.
20/64 choke.
And then.... When TXP drilled the same zones (updip) in Coho. Extended test produced 3063 boed (gas) and 445 bbls of water.
A lot better? Why?
Probably because the information from a 2001 well is better than one from the 60's? More drilling = better understanding of the well.
Is it possible that the next Royston wells will be better than the first? Maybe they learn something when drilling exploration wells?
Is PB correct about the water cut in "virgin" Trinidad reservoirs?
Why did you lose faith, John? What about your research? Is TXP fairly valued now?
Buy the top, sell the bottom? Most people here are painfully down from ATH.
If they ever manage to fill the pipeline from Cascadura - 150 000 - 200 000 mcf. It's over US $ 100 mill free cash flow every year - without oil. They can stop exploration/other investments and just "operate" Cascadura (minimal opex/capex), pay us dividends for years. Look at Carapal Ridge.
If they did. A 70% payout of US$100 FCF - $0.33 pr share. US share price: $1.22.
Dividend yield - 27%.
If you, like me, think they will get this production online at some point. You'll get your reward.
https://youtu.be/4PxKjsU5I8I
From today!
Even in Norway.. The cheapest place in the world to buy and own an Electric vehicle. It's beginning to get cheaper to use my diesel car due to electricity pricing. Bull oil&gas.
Disocoveries at a 75 year low in 2021 - report from Rystad yesterday
I can.
TXP is currently valued at US $ 315 mill. With 2020 year-end reserves we had Cas-1 with 235 bcf of 2p reserves. TXP will have a fixed-price of about US $2 pr mcf. Let's say a buyer of the field will get a 20% discount to $2. They will pay $ 1.60 pr mcf of 2p reserves. The company is then valued at US $ 375 mill. In my view the company is trading at a discount to Cas-1 alone.
In march we will get a reserves update/upgrade including Cas-deep. They drilled 200 of the 450 feet. Found a beautiful well, high pressures. In terms of reserves? 100, 200, 300 bcf??? We still don't know. Cascadura full development, after 4 wells(?). We must be looking in the 500 bcf - 1 tcf range. We "unlocked" 235 bcf with 1 drill.
This post includes no values for:
- Legacy oil
- Coho
- Condensates. 6 mill barrels 2p from Cas-1 alone. And this is a "bi-product".
- Royston (100 mill barrels field?) High pressure zone in the intermediate thrust. Heavy mud needed to control the well.
- Up-dip Chinook
- Kraken
- Ton of other prospects.
Ok. I'll mark it as a strong sell.
It's all about patience. TXP is now trading at about mcap to 3x 1y FCF with Coho online and Cascadura at 90000 mcf + condensates. Do the math when we get 180000 - 200000 mcf from Cacsadura, condensates, Royston oil, legacy oil, any other future prospect. Please short this.
I've tried for a few days to find information about the Penal-Barrackpore field. Not much to find about the different wells when it comes to production rates, wells, reserves etc. Someone?
On the positive side, I found some earlier presentations from Moonan where he said that some wells (in the 90's?) were drilled into the "intermediate thrust" and they all produced over a million barrels of oil each.
As PB said. "Put a exploration straw in a 7x2 km structure". If you find something that flow 1000 bbls/d with heavy pressure. Are you happy? This company are currently producing 1500 bbls/d. They are drilling 4 wells in legacy field with estimates of 100(??) bbls/d. What can these Royston wells produce with new technology? Horizontal wells?
We need GLJ to verify what this potentially can be.
It think Orotire will be to big for TXP - at some point. Probably after Krakken? Most exctiting drill wordwide for 2022/2023?
Just have to appreciate the market being irrational initially here. Looking at the SP history with just the cash in hand, and what was only hope at that point. Now, two drills in. Egyptian Vulture was a low COS drill. Still plenty to come.
What a beautiful monday morning! And as always, regretting not putting even more money in a few weeks back in the 80's. If we get a positive result from Royston I will empty my pockets. If we get some good flow rates. Wow. This company will be worth a fortune. Sitting in some different O&G stocks with offshore exploration, and looking at this structures onshore which can get drilled and brought on (ok... soon enough) for "pocket money". Just sit on your hands. Cascadura/-deep is not priced in. What will Cas-deep add on in terms of reserves? 200-300 bcf? Time will tell.