Member Info for EV_Bull

Special End-of-Year Recess
As KM stated:
"The work at the Court of Justice will resume on 7/1, but until 20/1, procedural deadlines and the publication of judgments, sentences and decisions, as well as the subpoena of parties or lawyers, will be suspended, except for measures considered urgent."
https://www.tjsp.jus.br/Noticias/Noticia?codigoNoticia=79220&pagina=8

Your link is incorrect @news, it's here: https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/lt-ls/

They already have the assays back @news, news soon on those.
https://youtu.be/5iOT8agwzIY?t=1108

They already have them back Evan, news soon on those.
https://youtu.be/5iOT8agwzIY?t=1108

Regarding CCZ @Jimb2, I did think with the deal that we had we were selling it off on the cheap (less than we paid for it), and with the lock-in, who knows what CCZ share price would be in 6-12 months so pleased to see that deal cancelled.

In Aus CCZ losing 18% is roughly £4.4m off their market cap if that gives any indication of how the market was valuing it. 31% being £1.36m

If you want to hear what Cadence CEO Kiran Morzaria said about the Litchfield project have a listen here: https://youtu.be/5iOT8agwzIY?t=1108
"Not all of the LT/LS shareholders agreed to those terms" Not Cadence's decision (as 31% minority holder) but beneficial due to the rising Lithium price and potentially achieving a higher valuation now.

KM said one of the owners of LT/LS wanted to break off the deal, presumably due to the rising Lithium price and wanting to see the assays, I did think it was a little odd entering in to it prior to the results.

If they think it’s good enough, why not do an IPO like Charger Metals and MacArthur’s infinity lithium?

Deducting cash Charger is worth £7.5m currently, I don’t know how our areas compare to theirs but it gives an idea that our 31% could be valued at around £2.5m if that were to be the case.

It just a matter of how big Ganfeng plan to go and how quickly now, it's obvious to me they will want to take control of 100% of it prior to announcing said plans but I'm expecting we can realise enough to pay for 49% of Amapa which would be an incredible uplift in value from where we sit today.

We are now also expecting more from LT/LS so hopefully some good assays will enhance its value.

Take my cigar packet calculations with a pinch of salt, but they are incredible if achieved I have now adjusted the input prices down by 8% to account for wmt to dmt conversion. We could achieve a better price than the index if our product is superior.
http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2015/03/19/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics

Per year figures 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $156.80 $126.70
Price/wmt $144 $117 $140 avg
Revenue $634,726,400 $104,907,600 $739,634,000
Opex $21/t $111,300,000
SG&A $2/t $10,600,000
Capex/loans $10/t $53,000,000
Shipping $30/t $159,000,000
Total Costs $63/t $333,900,000
Gross Profit $77/t $405,734,000
Tax (Assumed 35%) $27 $142,006,900
Net Profit $50/t $263,727,100
Net Profit 49% $129,226,279
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £94,494,739

NPV8 (49%) GBP £617,697,434
IRR (49%) 94.69%
NPV8 Per share £3.99
Earnings Per Share £0.61

Yes, I expect the PFS will come first, then some research reports... in the mean time...
Take my cigar packet calculations with a pinch of salt, but they are incredible if achieved I have now adjusted the input prices down by 8% to account for wmt to dmt conversion. We could achieve a better price than the index if our product is superior.
http://thewire.fiig.com.au/article/2015/03/19/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics

Per year figures 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $156.80 $126.70
Price/wmt $144 $117 $140 avg
Revenue $634,726,400 $104,907,600 $739,634,000
Opex $21/t $111,300,000
SG&A $2/t $10,600,000
Capex/loans $10/t $53,000,000
Shipping $30/t $159,000,000
Total Costs $63/t $333,900,000
Gross Profit $77/t $405,734,000
Tax (Assumed 35%) $27 $142,006,900
Net Profit $50/t $263,727,100
Net Profit 49% $129,226,279
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £94,494,739

NPV8 (49%) GBP £617,697,434
IRR (49%) 94.69%
NPV8 Per share £3.99
Earnings Per Share £0.61

I think WHI need to get their slide rules out too, the likelihood of 49% has gone up in my estimation and the estimated cost being below my expectation it has an ROI less than 1yrs profits. If sale of other assets can fund this then no dilution would be needed.
The confirmation of transhipment being likely also reduces my shipping cost estimate and therefore increases profitability.
Capesize Tubarao(Brazil)—Qingdao( China) 170,000t Iron ore $/ton 19.756

P/E 8 on the 49% option would be £672m valuation, if Sonora could be sold to fund this then share count would not need to be higher so ~£4.50 per share

49% being £84m so the investment of $20m-$30m could have a payback of under 1 year once in production great ROI

Sorry news, you completely misunderstood that, it is *estimated* that to increase our stake to 49% of Amapa mine it would cost $20-$30 million.
Profits are could be in the region of $200m per year (100%)
My ball park profit estimates once in full production (at Ore Prices of ~$140/t for 65% FE below todays prices)
Net Profit $43.82/t x 5.3m = $232.25m (£171.64m) x 27% = $62.7m to Cadence per year (£46.34m)

P/E 8 = £370m valuation = >£2/share (Just for Amapa)

Yeah, great Q&A for the genuine investors some great questions asked and answered. Lots to look forward to here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iOT8agwzIY&t=1477s
"We have been approached by several possible strategic investors, financers, offtakers"

EMH* our stake is worth roughly £13m at the current prices

EHM 2.5p up too so an even bigger discount today.

The previous presentation listed $24m-$50m "project equity" which I took to mean the amount required to go to 49%.
$30m is less than the $50m previous estimate and good to have this clarified.

@degsie, 49% of Amapa seems pretty likely to me and the $20-$30m estimate is music to my ears.

Direct Link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iOT8agwzIY