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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhNxe0xLh3Y
Matt Fernley of Battery Materials Review and The Volta Hedge fund shares his analysis pointing toward $5,000 spodumene and $60,000 lithium carbonate prices and why high lithium battery materials prices are likely to significantly constrain EV sales growth.
https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/ourblogs/how-high-could-lithium-prices-go/

They aren't spending $100s of millions just for 17ktpa when they want to produce 600ktpa globally, that's for sure.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ganfeng-lithium-capacity-idUSKCN2DK1PD

‘Unprecedented’ margins: lithium prices defy forecasters
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/unprecedented-margins-lithium-prices-defy-forecasters-20220117-p59oup

https://twitter.com/globallithium/status/1483062173253439488/photo/1
"The fact that #lithium supply can’t keep up with demand is validated by the price trends you have been seeing since late 2020. The real question now is what strategic plans will battery makers & OEMs put in place to deal with a problem that is here to stay for an extended period."

Nice article, surely only a matter of time for KDNC and Ganfeng to strike a deal.

@Olderandwiser I have modelled at 155m and 200m shares in issue as this is not a given and there is an alternatively a sale of other assets e.g Sonora used to pay for the 49%.

Of course everyone should make their own estimates, these are mine.

There are a lot of moving parts here, in terms of what is plausible a lot of things can/will happen in the next 6 months that I expect to be positive for Cadence.
We have 20/27% and PFS, possible deal for Sonora, EMH BFS/offtake etc.. any of those could add significant value to the SP.
I think those price targets are reasonable given the prospects here.
If things go well and we see Amapa to production and take our 49% then 300p is plausible in my opinion.

Put your own numbers in here, I'd be interested to know what anyone else thinks
https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator

assumed constant profits from the 4th year but it doesn't make as much difference.
We can debate what 49% of the NPV8 is and likely in a range of $600m-$1,200m but reality is that with a mcap at £40m either number will be fine from the basis of working out if the company is selling too cheaply or not at 28p per share and gives a range of possible future values in the event of the mine being successfully recommissioned. Hint: it is!
Take a low end estimate for Ore and a high end for costs and get something conservative and you'll see that we're priced at only about 5% of those figures which is exceptionally low and gives a lot of room to improve.

These are my own estimations

I should say you need to take 8% of that dmt price to convert to wmt though giving $77/t gross profit

Per year 65% 62% Total
Tonnes wmt 4,400,000 900000 5,300,000
Price/dmt $156.80 $126.70
Price/wmt $144 $117 $140
Revenue $634,726,400 $104,907,600 $739,634,000
Opex $21 $111,300,000
SG&A $2 $10,600,000
Capex/loans $10 $53,000,000
Shipping $30 $159,000,000
Total Costs $63 $333,900,000
Gross Profit $77 $405,734,000
Tax (Assumed 35%) $27 $142,006,900
Net Profit $50 $263,727,100
Net Profit 49% $129,226,279
Net Profit 49% (GBP) £94,636,927
NPV8 (100%) $1,758,636,968
IRR 133.90%
NPV8 (49%) $844,732,114

NPV8 (49%) GBP £618,626,893
IRR (49%) 94.69%
NPV8 Per share £3.99
Earnings Per Share £0.61

From my calcs I reckon the all in cost will be in the region of $63/t, 65% currently is $156.80 giving a very significant gross profit.

Net present value (NPV) is not related to completion per say other than that is the point at which the cashflows start.
It is the present value of future cashflows that the mine can be expected to produce between now and judgement day (i.e it's terminal value).

See the below as an example

https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator?initial_investment=36000000.00&discount_rate=8.000&cash_flows%5B%5D=0&cash_flows%5B%5D=0&cash_flows%5B%5D=0&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000&cash_flows%5B%5D=130000000

The discount rate currently being applied is excessive in my view and I expect this gap to close as the project progresses and further de-risks and the PFS numbers are announced.

The way you can do it is to calculate an NPV based of future expected cash flows and then apply a discount based on a risk level in terms of the chance of receiving said cash flows.

For example say the unrisked NPV8 for our 49% is £500m then apply a discount rate that considers the possible risks of those cash flows. A typical risk level for a new project (no infrastructure) would be perhaps 10-20% of NPV, this being de-risked a lesser discount rate should be applied, say 40-50%. Meaning a fair value could be say £250m.

Charger up 30% to AUD 0.78 we own 3% to my knowledge. Nice one.

Link to Charger announcement
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CHR/02476036.pdf

Interesting to see how our LT/LS assays are now, such a prospective area.

Yes Obs, good find, wonder if there are any mine plans in there.
As you've previously mentioned Yangi North appears to be much sooner than "from Year 12" given Fig 8 on page 26. It will be interesting to see how this plays out with all of our assets coming to the sharp end at the same time.
https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/has/01aac881-001.pdf

Interesting Evan, more progress... I wonder what the revised mining proposal is.

Please don’t take offence @news that wasn’t my intention.
Just trying to help others.

I actually watched one on Friday, they don’t like mining stocks, very few seem to currently understand the EV metals space, not my bag though, I’ll stick to Reddit.

Worth remembering our Daily Mail tip from a fund manager, the city are starting to notice, I expect things to change once Amapa is legally20% ours in a few weeks and then once the PFS is released.
https://www.branduk.net/daily-mail-justin-urquhart-stewart-co-founder-seven-investment-management-tips-cadence-minerals-at-28p/