Member Info for EV_Bull

LSE guesses at whether a trade is a buy or sell, unknown means it could be either a buy or sell - they don't know.

mooobs and dawg (same person) getting desperate now haha, I haven't sold a single share, why would I when this is going to re-rate?

Google translate uses US date format - corrected below:

MOVEMENTS
Date Movement
12/01/2022 Joined Petition
Protocol No: WJMJ.22.40017258-7 Type of Petition: Miscellaneous Petitions Date: 11/01/2022 23:58

24/12/2021 Joined Petition
Protocol No: WJMJ.21.42097501-3 Type of Petition: Miscellaneous Petitions Date: 24/12/2021 09:50

MOVEMENTS
Date Movement
12/01/2022 Joined Petition
Protocol No: WJMJ.22.40017258-7 Type of Petition: Miscellaneous Petitions Date: 01/11/2022 23:58

I've ran my numbers at todays higher ore price and I'm looking at a Net Profit per annum of $296,224,500 at $159.2/t & 128.5/t
This would equate to an NPV 8 in the region of $1.9bn of which we will own 27 or 49% of.
Yet here we are trading at £44m when our 27% share of Amapa alone would have an NPV8 of £376m so we are effectively being discounted by 95% to the unrisked value of Amapa if you say non Amapa assets are worth £25m.
The stockpile alone could be worth more than our market cap, yet people are falling over themselves to sell.

1.3Mt of stockpile (unknown / varying grades)
$40/t to ship say $100/t sale price (hopefully worth more)
$60 x 1.3Mt = $78m - $60m to banks, $18m left over is £13m

Go figure, no way would I be letting any shares go at this price!

I don't believe so @Jimb2, some hints at "areas previously purchased in 2019" - I can't find any details on land purchased in 2019 (was this supposed to be 2017)? but Las Perdices also appears to be within the JV areas supporting my claim that Secker was incorrect in saying they owned it all freehold.

Las Perdices - you can see it is much flatter:
https://mapcarta.com/20288016

https://minedocs.com/17/Sonora_FSNews_12132017.pdf
I believe the eastern end of the plant is still well within our areas.

----
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bacanora_lithium/news/rns/story/xz95dlr
"the Company has acquired an additional 500 hectares of land at the eastern end of the plant site location to allow for future plant expansions."
-------

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bacanora_lithium/news/rns/story/xq70y7w
In addition, the Company has purchased the Las Perdices land package, located directly south of the existing areas previously purchased in 2019. These additional 9,000 hectares will provide the Company with greater access to flatter land, ensuring reduced earthwork costs alongside vital emergency access. The borefield test wells have also been finalised, and the extraction well design is underway. Work will commence in Q3 2021 on the borefield to initially support the Project construction stages and subsequently, the lithium processing operations.
---------

The thing with going further south is it's far deeper in to JV territory and further away from their La Ventana claims.

There was a filing on the 24/12 - it's unclear if this is related or not - it's possible.

12/24/2021 Joined Petition
Protocol No: WJMJ.21.42097501-3 Type of Petition: Miscellaneous Petitions Date: 12/24/2021 09:50

I haven't seen anything else since, I believe it was expected to be two weeks, the courts only went back to full speed on Friday so possibly next week.

@Jimb2 have you found any evidence to back up that claim other than Secker on YouTube subsequent to that RNS? It certainly doesn’t match up with requiring to buy 500ha for plant expansions if they really owned all 100k ha freehold because the east end of the plant would still be within that 100k ha area.

I came across this earlier @Jimb2
juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/924-tsx-venture/bcn/37796-bacanora-minerals-secures-access-and-surface-rights-for-sonora-lithium-project.html

I'm not sure if anything subsequent was purchased (haven't looked) but it explains why they needed the 500ha if they only had enough land secured for the initial 35ktpa plan.... kinda makes you think doesn't it.

"access and surface rights have been secured for its flagship Sonora Project ("Sonora" or the "Project") in Mexico. This is in line with the Company's strategy to construct an open-pit mine and large-scale beneficiation processing facility at Sonora, which is one of the world's larger deposits. A Feasibility Study ("FS") for a 35,000 tonnes per annum lithium carbonate operation at Sonora is on course for completion in late 2017.

The access and surface rights mainly relate to the land area covering mineral resources contained within the La Ventana, Fleur and El Sauz areas. Bacanora has entered into binding agreements to acquire the freehold to two parcels of land which, following completion of the FS, will provide the Company with unrestricted access to develop the Project and operate it for the initial life of mine"

More discussion here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qtpwkw/bcn_rns_sonora_project_update_ganfeng_expansion/

I came across this 2016 video on Transhipment from Oldendorff in Trinidad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNRIcXTspYA

As you can see from the 2012 Anglo American annual report:
"Transhipment at Trinidad and Tobago from smaller capacity Handymax to the larger capacity Capesize vessels for onward shipment to the Middle and Far East was successfully implemented in the second half of 2012."

https://www.angloamerican.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group/PLC/investors/annual-reporting/2013/annual-report2012.pdf (Page 89)

https://www.oldendorff.com/pages/transshipment/trinidad

“We use Supramax and Panamax vessels to load cargo at restricted ports, for example in the Amazon or Orinoco rivers, then transship the cargo into Capesize bulkers using three floating cranes. The Capesize vessels then perform the long voyage to Asia or the Middle East.”

Here is the location of the Trinidad transhipment Cranes
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:3840432/mmsi:636012953/imo:0/vessel:MAGGIE_CRANE

Transhipment was also mentioned by Kiran here: https://youtu.be/wGS8xIZCqhM?t=80

This can provide big savings given the economies of scale involved with using larger vessels, I've done some estimates at current rates and I think it would be around 40-45% cheaper than handymax to China, substantial savings.
My estimate rough is $35/t at current rates.

There was also mention of Santana Port being able to use 105kt New-Panamax vessels so I'd be interested to know if that's true and how the economics are between the two options.

Lots of discussion on the New-Panamax here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/qfcxo9/studies_indicate_the_possibility_of_santana_port/

Transhipment here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/s1ev9y/oldendorff_transshipment_trinidad/

@tomcat the mine is at ///pixels.structuring.cauliflower
I believe that is the exact spot the photo on the right here was taken from: https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals/status/1478629252031557636?s=20

https://what3words.com/pixels.structuring.cauliflower

Of course the whole thesis is based upon maximising returns for shareholders and that depends on the investment opportunities (and sale opportunities) in front of the management a bit like a game of 3D chess.

For example does the sale (all or part) of Sonora, EMH or other assets allow 49% of Amapa and is that a better option than the reverse.
Sell our Amapa stake for £150m and fund another asset like Sonora or Yangibana another thought is what Indo want to do, for example a spin out of the "Amapa Iron Ore Company" for example so both parties can realise value, or a full on sale to a third party e.g Glencore.

We also don't know what other opportunities may come across Kiran's desk and what offers he might get from the likes of Ganfeng or others which de-risks the company.

Holding on to both assets is fine, but not when the market values them far below what they are worth.
In my estimation Amapa is likely to have an NPV well above $1bn and at some point that needs to be reflected in our market price, perhaps this is simply by holding on to the asset and waiting for the profits to come in 3 years time, maybe we keep a 10% interest and invest in other things, who knows, perhaps there is already a plan agreed with Indo.

60p-80p is my short term price target https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals/
I certainly see it as achievable once the 20/27% is official, my 1-2 year price target is 130p and you can read my post to see why I (and others) see this as realistic.

A couple of points on that, we're expected to produce a higher grade ore perhaps even 67% which sells at a premium.
The figures were previously calculated at ~$82/t and deemed profitable when the JRP was entered in to and we're way higher than that today.
I'd also add nobody can predict the future iron ore price, but the outlook is for increased demand every year out to 2050 as India, China etc continue to develop.
Today we're around $155/t for 65% which would make the mine hugely profitable, I estimate break even around $71/t (the biggest variable being shipping costs)

Yeah, I'm expecting those to start moving again soon.

Cadence was also tipped in the Daily Mail in case you missed it:
https://www.branduk.net/daily-mail-justin-urquhart-stewart-co-founder-seven-investment-management-tips-cadence-minerals-at-28p/

Quite possible in my opinion bhargav, my short term price target is60p-80p longer term could be much higher.
My own analysis/opinion is posted here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/rugni1/due_diligence_lsekdnc_cadence_minerals/

Looking at BCN/Ganfeng’s land purchase they are all in JV territory and in my opinion their future expansion plan is likely to be additional tonnage from the JV areas and much sooner. Perhaps two separate pits simultaneously, one in LV and one in El Sauz/ Fleur. My take is that they would want to buy us out before announcing this as it would significantly increase the NPV of our holding towards the billion dollar territory. Hence not saying we will reach those values due to a buyout being more likely especially at a time when we may have the chance to go to 49% with Amapa. Will be interesting to hear what Kiran has to say on the matter this Friday.

That could be exactly what happens @Mwil once the 20/27% is legally signed over to us. Ganfeng would want Sonora and EMH stake to go along with their ZNWD stake and sell off the rest.

The same thing could also happen in reverse, worth remembering that Glencore are our offtaker for the stockpile and were previously interested in buying Amapa as we’re others. There were also several parties interested in taking over the JRP process so plenty of interest.

One way or another the value will ultimately be realised here in my opinion. £150m would be peanuts to many of the bigger players and M&A is big at the moment given the commodities boom. Commodities tend to do well in times of inflation.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3113018/Glencore-Zamin-among-bidders-for-Anglos-Amapa-iron-ore-mine-sources-say.html

Barrons also leading with the commodities boom this month.
https://www.barrons.com/
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1479790436084588545/photo/1