Member Info for EV_Bull

Yeah I agree it is seeming like the PFS will be 15 years and the DFS could be 20-25 years.
It's worth noting that going from 15yr to 25 yr (66% increase) translates to a 32% increase in my after-tax NPV8 though.
$582m->$771m so it's material but not as much as one might think.

Pre-tax it's more like $1.16bn -> $1.49bn NPV8
This is at $120/t avg and of course these are just my estimates based on what has been stated previously just posted for fun.

From July Q&A
in relation to a historic joint venture with great panther mining which has progressed really well we are um you know both parties agree in principle that those JV's still exist or in place therefore they can mine areas of golf from our areas and we can mine areas of iron from their areas

so what we will be doing they won't be part of the pre-feasibility study but part of the definitive feasibility study is we'll be taking and collating that data verifying checking it auditing it seeing if we need to do any twinning or subsequent holes and then if that stacks up as a mineral resource adding that and or reserve adding that to the mine life and mine plan and that's not a quick process it's not you know two or three months you can expect sometimes you know minimal resource expat or mineral resource audit including possibly some twinning and drilling um you know to take six to eight months so it's going to be within six to nine months that's going to be within the DFS stage of our work but that is a potential expansion of our mine life so instead of having around a 14-year mine life you could be talking about a 20 year mine life or even a 25 year mine life but you know those are uh that would be a substantial improvement to the NPV of course increase the internal rates of return on capital investment it's overall a good economic outcome but at the moment we can't say how much it's going to increase it by um so once we have that once we start that work we'll update the market and update the market when we get to a new minimum resource estimate or something similar.

44% more resource should add more than one extra year, expect the PFS to have a longer mine life also it has been stated that the deals with the neighbours are still valid. Will have to wait and see what the PFS says.

Correction:$120 per dmt not wmt.
In 2021, iron ore was worth an average of approximately 162 U.S. dollars per dry metric ton unit (dmtu). The month with the highest average iron ore price in 2021 was June, at over 200 U.S. dollars per dmtu.

Yes my current after tax NPV8 estimate is in the region of $770m @ 25 years mine life with avg $120 per wmt. Significantly leveraged to the iron ore price of course… a $10 improvement to $130/t gives you $1bn NPV8

EMH or Sonora being bought out would help significantly.

Closed at 9.75 +3.17% (0.30)

Initial 15-year mine life, with the potential to expand this further by upgrading the 46.76 Mt of inferred resources - this adds materially to the NPV, hopefully ORE the PFS will be out soon, I expect the NPV will surprise some on the upside.

There is a difference between 'understandably cautious' (maybe 20-25p/share) and 'extremely undervalued' (9p) due to excessive pessimism and that's where we are currently in my view, way below any calculation of fair or reasonable value. So yes, absolutely time for a top up.

Hence the opportunity at these levels, if everyone is as pessimistic as you then that is an indicator that it's a good time to buy. Not priced in.

Well Evergreen Lithium deal is already done and has upside attached, I am saying I see the HAS deal is a formality so can be added on that is at least £16m already in known value (which is our current MCAP) plus Sonora JV plus Amapa 27% - you get these for free, and also the potential uplift with Evergreen should drilling (and IPO) produce good results.
My estimate.
EMH £ 6,897,000
Hastings Technology Metals £ 5,133,866
Macarthur Minerals £ 104,320
Mont Royal Resources £ 26,240
Eagle Mountain Mining £ 35,937
Charger Metals £ 419,266
Other £ 6,000
Evergreen Lithium £ 1,802,557
Cash £ 1,500,000
Total £ 15,925,185

Private Holdings
Amapa 27% £ 25,897,635 (based on $24m estimate for 22%)
Sonora £ 28,900,000 (my estimate)
Total £ 54,797,635

Asset Value £ 70,720,328
Asset Value to SP £ 0.4095 per share
Actual SP £0.0926
Percent of NAV 23%
Upside to current Nav 342%

Of course Amapa/Sonora have further potential beyond the values quoted as the PFS will demonstrate but this is for illustration and not considering any upside beyond what is paid.

Seems like a formality now, not priced in either.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/xttmwq/cadence_minerals_ups_stake_in_amapa_project_to_27/
View from Vox
Cadence achieved three important milestones during the period. It vested 27% interest in the valuable Amapa Iron Ore Project, it progressed development of Amapa and its pre-feasibility study, and created capital growth in its private investments via sales of LT, LS, and Yangibana. The sales represent a potential 395% and 502% ROI respectively. The upcoming IPO of Evergreen Lithium represents further potential value.

Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, the lithium and rare earth sectors have remained positive, with pricing in both remaining robust. Demand continues to be driven by electrification of transport and the continued undersupply of feedstock. Cadence does not believe an oversupply of lithium is imminent, but sees a continued market deficit.

The global slowdown has had an impact on iron ore with the Platts index dropping from US$125/dmt to US$100/dmt in 1H22. Prospects for iron ore are driven by China, being the world's largest steel producer, and buyer of 70% of global seaborne iron ore. Cadence expects China to emerge as a source of stability for iron ore demand, with recent indications pointing to a recovery in its growth momentum.

Cadence says it remains "cautiously optimistic" despite macroeconomic headwinds. The transition to net zero carbon emissions should continue to open up investment opportunities in companies that serve the associated supply chains.

Ganfeng freeing up cash:
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CXO/02574336.pdf

For example the HAS deal is now worth £300k more to us.

It means our assets (and therefore SP) should be worth more in GBP terms.

https://youtu.be/HeBvSpZMMfo?t=1461
"The concept of identifying certain projects as strategic has entered the European discourse at the highest levels. In my opinion Europe's largest Hard Rock lithium project past producing Cinovec is likely to be considered strategic. Cinovec is controlled by CEZ one of Europe's largest utilities and deeply connected to the Czech state European metals Holdings which owns 49% of this project has been trading at one of the largest discounts of all advanced lithium developers and has had minimal trading liquidity. In my opinion the sun also rises in the Czech Republic, a gradually then suddenly effect is certainly possible with EMH. Since I returned to making videos in late June I have focused most attention on macro and political development's impacting the lithium battery Metals thematic."

EMH new world metals presentation:
https://youtu.be/mhxg-PQCi5g
"our market cap at 134 million dollars is less than one-tenth of our share of the NPV of this project so we kind of think there might be a little upside there"

https://youtu.be/HeBvSpZMMfo?t=1461
"The concept of identifying certain projects as strategic has entered the European discourse at the highest levels. In my opinion Europe's largest Hard Rock lithium project past producing Cinovec is likely to be considered strategic. Cinovec is controlled by CEZ one of Europe's largest utilities and deeply connected to the Czech state European metals Holdings which owns 49% of this project has been trading at one of the largest discounts of all advanced lithium developers and has had minimal trading liquidity. In my opinion the sun also rises in the Czech Republic, a gradually then suddenly effect is certainly possible with EMH. Since I returned to making videos in late June I have focused most attention on macro and political development's impacting the lithium battery Metals thematic."

Rock Stock Channel:
Is #ElonMusk listening to fellow billionaires Robert Friedland, Jim Litinsky and Chris Ellison who print money mining & refining rock? Is a Teslandia world part of Master Plan 3? Is one or more spodumene, nickel or graphite projects in #Tesla's sights?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeBvSpZMMfo

EMH new world metals presentation:
https://youtu.be/mhxg-PQCi5g
"our market cap at 134 million dollars is less than one-tenth of our share of the NPV of this project so we kind of think there might be a little upside there"

In other news
Fortescue pledges $6.2bn of decarbonisation investment on way to producing carbon-free iron ore
https://im-mining.com/2022/09/20/fortescue-pledges-6-2bn-of-decarbonisation-investment-on-way-to-producing-carbon-free-iron-ore/

The discount here is staggering and implies Amapa worth less than we paid for it and Sonora worth zero. This becomes a risk free bet on both projects. Kiran has also said we could stay at 27% and let other parties fund the rest if necessary which somewhat negates the placing risk. I am expecting fireworks in Q4 this year, especially with the recent updates from EMH.