Member Info for EV_Bull

@obs I wouldn't read anything in to it, could be anything there are a long list of parties involved the case so could be anything but probably a minor clarification and could be the opposite e.g maybe dev clarifying if it can start shipping. :-)

embargos de declaracao = motion for clarification
A “motion for clarification” is just what the name implies: a request for an explanation from the court as to the meaning of a prior, allegedly unclear, order.

@MJFMSG Sorry to hear that, it seems all mining and lithium stocks had a boom and bust period a few years ago looking at the charts of most. KDNC, EMH, SAV BCN etc etc... but that doesn't mean they are bad investments today now the EV revolution is in full swing and those projects are all much further on. I wasn't really looking at these companies back then (fortunately). I have also been invested in a company that has lost 95% so I know what it's like. The hard part is to take the emotion out of it and look at the fundamentals. The markets look forward not backwards of course but doing your own valuation and buying when cheap is the route to success.

In hindsight averaging down a bit over the past year would have paid off for you.

@MJFMSG already locked and loaded here ready for take off!

time to start ship watching?
Kiran did mention awating a process within a few days of the judgement that means operations can resume so should be some more news due soon.
I feel that this is one of the last few days to buy in at these low levels.

@scooby yes this is an old price not necessarily reflective of todays value (should be more now), have a listen to the KM interview from the other day: https://twitter.com/VoxPodcast/status/1359511288603414531

Anyway.... back on track:
My personal valuation UPDATE / opinion (DYOR) - TLDR; 43p
KDNC Mkt CAP today 11/2/21 £30m
Since we’ve hit my prior “low end” estimate of 20p I thought I’d update using the Anglo American 100% write down value stated by Kiran on the recent podcast of $600m (£434m GBP).
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12% Stake in EMH 19,747,740 shares x 77p = £15.2m
Yangibana JV £1-2m or more
Sonora £5m-£10m (or more)
Lithium Technologies & Lithium Supplies £0
Amapa Cash in Escrow £1.8m
Cash from sale of EMH Shares £1m?
Macarthur minerals £0.5m
Taking the low end of the above gives ~£24.5m excl Amapa.
Value of Amapa 27% stake using Anglo $600m (stated by Kiran) value £117m (probably a lot more)
Probability of Amapa all going ahead multiplied by £117m say 50% = £58.5m
Being ultra conservative take the lower figure of £58.5 + £22.5m from above (minus escrow) = £81m
Discount the above value to add a further margin of safety by 20% = £65m
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My personal very conservative estimation of fair value for KDNC today: £65m (43p/share), still a huge potential upside.
low end estimate £40.5m (27p/share),
High end estimate £116m (78p/share)
Feel free to share your own estimates.
Obviously once Amapa concludes SP should be far greater than the high end estimate.

@Jimb... Just to add the historical prices are altered (all divided by 5) to adjust so the prices going back to the beginning to keep things correct from a chart perspective even though on that day in 2019 it actually closed at $200 the historical data is altered to show it as if it closed at $40 to keep things consistent.

@Jimb Yes it is x5 so $800 today is $4000 in pre split terms I bought at $200 in old money May 19 now $40 sold at $850

Yeah wasn't a bad move... £5.5k up on that tranche. Avg cost base is up to 15.4p

@obs, can confirm... I made 21x on TSLA

I mean the Filters.....
Click Filters, type Paddyboy1 job done.... bliss....
As for the SP, clearly the big seller has provided a few red days, but this is a company that made 50m a year in normal times... trading at <3x those earnings. Trading during non locked down periods was good and we will be returning to some kind of normality in the not too distant future. Yes there are debt covenants but the banks obviously understand this is a going concern and lockdowns will not last forever. The one thing that I'd like to see is some directors buying, which would give shareholders (including myself) the confidence to load up the wheelbarrow.

Absolutelty, Y1101284 the real story is further positive developments which should mean that Cadence has is moving towards owning a 27% (and then 49%) stake in an Iron ore mine worth up to $1bn when fully restored and operational at todays iron ore prices. With market cap reflecting about 1% of this!
At minimum this should be 25p on todays news and could easily multi-bag once the deal is sealed which is looking increasingly likely and relatively soon. Unbelievable once in a lifetime type situation/opportunity here if all goes well and very little downside with the other projects in the pipeline.

@Mogbear it's my understanding that 4% of the current 20 year Sonora Lithium mine plan is attributable to KDNC. I expect the scope of the project to increase beyond the initial plan though.

@tradecraft, I believe you should actually be looking at potential value (of Amapa deal) multiplied by probability.
Lets say Amapa 27% is worth £50m to KDNC market cap and market thinks it is now 10% more likely to go ahead it should add £5m to current market cap.

It feels like we could have pretty much written the rns last night. Great news to see that we were on the money.
This should be worth well north of 20p as I’ve been saying for quite a while.

The purpose of the $10m was originally stated as:

the request to sell iron ore, up to the limit of US $ 10
millions, by Recuperanda, with the use of resources in the following purposes:
(pages 16.908):
“(I) payment of labor creditors (USD
2,500,000.00);
(ii) start of studies to revitalize the Estrada de
Ferro do Amapá, according to the agreement signed with the Government of Amapá (USD
1,000,000.00) (doc. 01);
(iii) investment in maintenance and security of
dams (USD 2,000,000.00);
(iv) feasability study, so as not to compromise
the payment schedule of the other creditors (USD 3,000.00.00); and
(v) the remaining amount will be used to obtain and renewal of Recuperanda's operating licenses, payment of court fees and arrears in the port area, payment of current expenses (security, energy, maintenance of the floating platform, lawyers, administrator) and income tax, PIS / COFINS, CSSL and other taxes. ”

“Being authorized to sell the ore stock of
up to the limit of US $ 10 million, we suggest the following procedure for
withdrawal of the amount obtained from the sale that must be deposited in an account
related to Judicial Recovery:
i. Recovering presents the list of creditors and
with bank details that will be paid with the amount deposited in the file for
withdrawal request purposes;
ii. Recovered presents an analytical list of costs and
expenses to be paid with the value of the sale of iron ore;
iii. This Judicial Administrator proceeds with the
analysis aimed at bringing subsidies to this Douto Judgment;
iv. This Doubtful Judge appreciates the request for withdrawal
and, if authorized, this Judicial Administrator will carry out the inspection of the
use of the amount released under the terms previously requested in the records ;
----
Perhaps this may have a bearing on the creditor payments which were predicted to be end of Jan and our $2.5m in escrow as it looks like it was originally planned to come from the stockpiles instead but presumably our escrow money will be used for that as this info may pre-date our investment so they wouldn't need to wait for stockpile sales as originally planned.

This is what they were appealing against
"Court and Judicial Reorganizations of the District of Capital, Dr. Paulo Furtado de Oliveira Filho, who authorized the sale of the stock of iron ore of the recoveree up to the limit of US $ 10,000,000.00 (ten million US dollars), with the reserve of 10% to the Banks Syndicate"

So I'd take it that it means the above still as it refers to the previous decision and is $10m with 10% for the banks. I wouldn't read too much in to that other reference to selling 10% suspect the typist had a long day.

Good point Obs... Ok... If you want to turn super detective......
Here is the website they were quoting from.... and it's clearly the Indian bank writing this given the link to the indian part of the site. So you should be able to date both of those statements fairly accurately.

https://in.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures
-----
In turn, on the present date, the price is above USD 88 , 45 a ton, so there was an excess of guarantee, since the value of iron ore would reach USD 265 million, that is, an excess of more than 135 million dollars. (https://in.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures). 3. The credit of the Banking Syndicate would remain a holder of sufficient guarantee, in the event of the sale of USD 10 million, destined to the payment of labor and low-income creditors 40. As noted, such statements were made when the price of iron ore was at USD88 per ton, and currently the price of iron ore is higher than USD 117.00 per ton, that is, there would be more than 300 million dollars in guarantee.
-----

and the following:
In fact, there is currently an evident opportunity for the successful sale of iron ore, given the considerable increase in the value of the nominated commodity in the international market, mainly due to the continuous escalation of the dollar exchange rate during the current year, since the guarantee was created. , in order to conclude that there is an excess of guarantee now claimed by the recoveree. Therefore, it cannot be forgotten that, in all scenarios: economic and financial, the sale of the portion of the recovered iron ore stock, in the same way as in r. a hostile decision, will make it possible to resume business activities, revert in favor of labor creditors and all those interested in implementing the recovery plan for the aggravated person, as well as the aggravating person himself, whose permanence of the amount in a judicial account will preserve the asset of the recoveree given in fiduciary guarantee, in addition to the 10% (ten percent) reserve under the sale amount. In short: the sale of 10% of the iron ore stock, granted by r. the fought decision will benefit all the stockholders of the recovering company. Therefore, in view of the extended reasons, as well as the absence of any damage to the aggravating Union, a. contested decision with the consequent revocation of the suspensive effect previously granted. Due to the judgment of the interlocutory appeal, the examination of the motion for clarification is impaired. 3. That said, by my vote, I deny the interlocutory appeal, prejudicing the examination of the motion for clarification