Member Info for EV_Bull

@tomcat, no I think it's Diário da Justiça Eletrônico, almost every statement in the case has that at the start so I wouldn't read anything in to that.

You'd think this is a positive step forward for Sonora that adds value to our neighbouring JV areas. Anyone think Ganfeng may even want to buy the jv stake from Cadence at some point, they are a £20bn company so it's pocket change to them and they already own 30% of BCN.

@MyLastQuid He was described in the AGM 26mins in, sounded like he is no longer a fund manager.

Things are definitely moving again.
Quite a few zamin mentions including this one:
https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/1109942747/djsp-judicial-1a-instancia-capital-29-01-2021-pg-800
and also many mentions of the following:
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JUDICIAL POWER LABOR JUSTICE

TO THE PARTIES: become aware of the centralization of the credits of this and execution and its due excess.

MACAPA / AP, January 27, 2021.
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https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/diarios/1109838209/trt-8-judiciario-28-01-2021-pg-638

search brings up quite a lot: https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/busca?q=zamin+amapa&p=2&o=data

Not sure how (or if) this case (0010048-84.2013.5.08.0205) is related but thought i'd share as it references our court case and 10 days from the 24th Jan (Wednesday 3rd Feb).
S & M TRANSPORTES AND LEASE OF MACHINERY PESADAS LTDA
https://www.jusbrasil.com.br/processos/110418177/processo-n-0010048-8420135080205-do-trt-8
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DISPATCH
Enforcers are encouraged to become aware of the content of the electronic message received from the Judicial Administrator of the Judicial Recovery No. 1088747-75.2015.8.26.0100 (ID 816c385), in order to manifest themselves within 10 (ten) days.
MACAPA / AP, January 24, 2021.
JADER RABELO DE SOUZA
Titular Labor Judge

Hi Tobias,
There is usually a "Market Maker" which you are buying from (or selling to) based on the trade price it is possible to guess whether it is a buyer or seller. If it's above the current price it's a buy and if it's below it's a sell generally speaking.
Have a google of setsqx and Aim market and it will make more sense as there are auctions throughout the day.

You only have to look at what happened to Piedmont to see where this is heading when off-takes are announced! I'm two of those buys today. Plenty of mentions by KC of Tesla being just up the road too and their battery factory just got planning announced.

Hi rivaldo, the Reddit post you linked to is what made me take a look at CAPD and decide to invest so it definitely did spur some interest as I had not heard of the company before so it's very under the radar at the moment and a good chance of a very good return here with the growth of the business and contract wins.
Thanks for the useful information you've been posting.

@obs yes I did miss that part... so I suspect others will have too so thanks for pointing that out. Either way I don’t think it will be too much longer now before we have the deal done. Not easy for the directors to release anything until the deal is done to not be accused of pumping the share price.

It's in the latest KDNC presentation that the bank settlement is imminent given the blue dot on the presentation is on the left edge of the 1-6 month section so it's not really anything new to be honest that the bank settlement is imminent so not sure why an RNS would be needed for what was published today. This is clear from the recent SP rise that plenty of people understand this. Good news to see that it's progressing with the courts again though after the xmas break.

Yes, the market clearly believes Amapa isn't happening.
My rough but I think cautious estimates:
16.5m (11p) EMH + .35m (0.25p) MMS + 3.7m (2.5p) My Sonora estimate + 1.5m (1p) My Yangibana Estimate + cash in escrow – debt/costs 1m+ = 23m 15.5p / share then add Amapa or any other positive developments.

Thanks Evan yes my mistake I had it backwards there.
it is of course 16.47m/148m giving £0.11 per share (11p)
Needless to say there is a lot of value left on the table with the current SP!

Can you point out the error in my calculations or provide your own? The stake in emh has recently been reduced. Shares in issue divided by value 148m/16.47m (21m x current sp)

Cheers

I got bored of filtering the spammers unfortunately so just lurking at the moment and patiently waiting for the bank settlement news which is due soon.
Updating the EMH number though
14/01/21 - 13% Stake in EMH 21,044,219 shares x 78.3p = £16.47m (up 4m despite sale of 2m shares) or approx. 9p per KDNC share

So in my estimation today approximately 14p of the share price is non-amapa related value. My estimation of fair value today is 25p and post amapa 20% stake news 50p+ especially given the recent iron ore prices.

Well looks like we will have a documentary to look forward to on the Amapa railway
https://g1.globo.com/google/amp/ap/amapa/noticia/2020/12/23/dupla-caminhara-200-quilometros-para-documentar-em-video-como-esta-a-estrada-de-ferro-do-amapa.ghtml

The efficient market hypothesis is a myth in my opinion - especially on AIM where less people are aware of the special situations, and many may ignore Cadence completely as they would find it difficult to fully value all the separate projects. You should see this as an opportunity to take advantage of as eventually the market catches up and this will in hindsight look like a bargain (IMO).

worth noting that it is the same as the resolution in the 2019 AGM

It is explained very well here:
https://www.informdirect.co.uk/shares/what-are-shareholder-pre-emption-rights/

@eyeguy, This is why monkeys beat the average investor. Reading some of the comments here you can see why!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/?sh=41e158c9630a

EMH Stake now worth £11,164,680 @ 48p (23259751 × 0.48) or 7.55p per share.