Member Info for EV_Bull

Hi @tomcat, 10% of the $10m is reserved for the Banks, perhaps something has been lost in translation or transcription.
RNS Fri, 19th Feb 2021 08:05: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/update-on-the-amapa-iron-ore-project-jauiiriv4x26yb8.html
"DEV Mineração S.A's ("DEV") can now commence operations to ship sufficient iron ore to realise a US$10 million profit from the Amapa stockpiles situated at its port (after the deductions of all logistical, regulatory, shipping and sale costs). We look forward to updating shareholders when operations recommence at the port"

He's on his way!!!

Another point on the shipping milestone is that it proves to the banks and courts the competence of Cadence, Indo Sino and Dev. Kiran was very positive in yesterdays interview an deservedly so as this is a big deal many years in the making finally coming to fruition.

yes, KM said "several ships" it may be at or less than $100/t after shipping and handling costs (guess) as its Net $10m so may be closer to $4m per ship. If they have signed with the banks though by the time the second ship has left then the $10m will no longer matter and we'll take our 20% and be shipping as much as we can.

@obs imagine how cheap 21p is going to look for these shares in 3 years time, beyond belief and really pleased to have been able to get a big stake in here at 15p avg.
Already battery shortages and the boom hasn't really got going yet https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/?sh=384db8521ff3
DYOR
;-)

It's worth noting that EMH is set to announce drill results, off-takers, doubling of production to 50ktpa each of which could boost the SP significantly.

Very positive update, very confident on the bank settlement being done.

https:// www. directors talk interviews .com/cadence-minerals-first-shipment-of-iron-ore-a-milestone-of-huge-significance-interview/412972110

Worth remembering we have JVs in two world class assets that will be in production by that time and it may be prudent to invest in those rather than pay it all out as dividends hence the 10p. Obviously very much depends on ore prices too but I believe that to be fairly conservative.

Full post for context @Hollybean based on £50m /yr profit @ 27% Amapa stake. 10p being ~£15m

28 Mar 2021 11:47
"It's really mind blowing that we could be looking at annual earnings of in the region of 30-40p/share or more just for the 27% of Amapa part of our equation, some of which can be used to pay a nice divi (say10p/sh) starting say 3 years from now and the rest to fund further our other investments e.g Sonora, Yangi, LT/LS."

My guess was 10p/share in 3 years time, but in reality who knows.

@obs,@eyeguy exactly and perhaps quashed beyond doubt those spouting nonesense like @isb saying "what if no-one wants the ore" etc etc.

@tomcat
https://www.weforum.org/organizations/glencore
Glencore International
"Glencore is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities. The group's operations comprise over 150 mining and metallurgical sites, oil production assets and agricultural facilities. Glencore has a strong footprint in both established and emerging regions for natural resources and a global network of more than 90 offices located in over 50 countries supports its industrial and marketing activities. Glencore's customers are industrial consumers."

@tomcat....
I asked google and he/she said:
Glencore is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 90 commodities.

@obs I do know what you mean, I personally wouldn't make an investment decision based on technical analysis, not that there isn't anything in it at all as some may be successful in it (e.g Algo's etc), but if we get an RNS saying we have the deal done no amount of charting would matter when the SP would be up 300%.

@mmm exactly right, good for the exposure as we are massively under the radar which has allowed us to get in (or top up) at a steal over the last few months.

TL;DR I am a firm believer in the value investing philosophy.

@mmm, I lump "chartists" in with astrologers, palm readers, tea leaves and the like. You'd be wise to do the same!

Came across some recent articles covering the history of the project - the port collapse was 8 years ago today.
https://santanadoamapa.blogspot.com/2021/03/da-icomi-anglo-um-cais-de-conquistas.html

https://observatoriodamineracao.com.br/de-eike-batista-a-bilionario-indiano-investigacao-transnacional-de-corrupcao-mira-a-zamin-ferrous-e-deputados-no-amapa/

@obs
I've found this website good for NPV calculations
https://www.calculatestuff.com/financial/npv-calculator
I would apply 8% or 10% personally as a minimum.
for 100% project NPV (using my crude 2x revenue model)
8% = $1.35b
10% = $1.1b
15% = $763m
Conveniently at 15% NPV = £550m x27% = £148.5 = £1/share almost exactly

It's really mind blowing that we could be looking at annual earnings of in the region of 30-40p/share or more just for the 27% of Amapa part of our equation, some of which can be used to pay a nice divi (say10p/sh) starting say 3 years from now and the rest to fund further our other investments e.g Sonora, Yangi, LT/LS.

Great work on this @Tradecraft,
Given that the JRP was based on a 62% Fe price of US$61 / tonne have you tried / thought about recalculating with a more up to date price? I can imagine we are looking at almost unbelievable numbers at today's prices.
A **very crude yet conservative** doubling of the JRP revenues and correcting for currency differences gives me an EBITDA closer to $400m Net profit $250m (£180m) ~£50m /yr profit @ 27% stake this could easily take us beyond £2 a share @ P/E of 6 should we pull it off. Especially iven we are closer to 3x the FE 62% prices the JRP is based off and over $100/t more.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/cadence-minerals-plc/rns/approval-of-judicial-restructuring-plan---amapa/201908300700056390K/
(at 61$/t) Amapá will have an average :
o US$266 million per annum of net revenue after shipping,
o US$90 million per annum in mine, processing and transport costs
o US$48 million per annum in environmental, sales and G&A expenses
o EBITDA of US$136 million per annum.