Member Info for EV_Bull

All good @Mike, we are all up nicely today and that is the main thing. This is still massively undervalued so lots to look forward to for Cadence Investors. Anyone betting against this is going to be sorry IMO.

Not sure who your post pas inteded for but you are slightly contradicting yourself @Mike. If this is the case that everybody knows about it: "Which member of our board or investor would not have taken that into consideration?" then why is it also not ok to ignore the post?

Of course the BOD will be aware of the cost and I personally am not concerned by the cost as the gains in the stockpile are so large that it's not a problem even if it does cost a bit more than budgeted.

I would just note that the estimates for the railway were made about two years ago and the documentary was made within the past few months so it does have relevance for shareholders and I don't think anybody should be so angry about it being posted.

Why worry about $.5m here or there when we wil have 27% of a billion dollar mine?

Agree Mike, nobody posts here without an agenda, all are here to make a few bob I do my best to ignore the vast majority of it but this weekend was just silly. Note the large number of nonesense posts between people, curry recipe's and whatnot would you not think they would find another way to communicate with each other directly? Presumably they want to push the useful comments down the list and hide the true posts? Never seen anything like it. LSE could do with updating the forum to a reddit style of voting or at least some moderators and perhaps the intelligent posters should start a chat elsewhere.

Thanks for the reminder @MLQ giving it a watch, the satellite views looked very green. They should have taken a strimmer with them and cleared it up for us :-).
They had $4.5m for the railway cap-ex, do you think that's enough?
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/LSE20190830070005_14207220/Approval-of-Judicial-Restructuring-Plan-Amapa

It's funny how certain characters that were extremely negative when we were at 18p a share seem to have gone quiet all of a sudden.
As I've said many times including back at 18p "KDNC is low risk shot at a 5x multi-bag opportunity, Amapa is still not priced in at all (asymmetric risk/reward opportunity) very surprised this isn’t at least 30p/share currently, patience will be rewarded IMO"

"The following should now be imminent re Amapa and will have a huge positive impact to SP:
Start of Shipping of net $10m from stockpiles
Bank Settlement finalised
20% Stake in Amapa JV
Scoping study (updated NPV)
Start of recommissioning studies & work
Shipping the rest of the stockpiles
Also expecting offtake news from EMH"

#1 done, We are now on the cusp of #2.

Given that google thinks "The buyer is one of the world's largest globally diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of commodities." is Glencore....
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/first-iron-ore-shipment-from-amapa-since-2015-tc6c4vu5xq87xj0.html

It is interesting to note who were originally interesting in buying the mine:

November 05, 2012
"Glencore, Zamin among bidders for Anglo’s Amapa iron ore mine, sources say
At least four bidders are in the running to acquire Anglo American’s Amapa iron ore project in Brazil, sources told Steel First on Monday November 5.

Bidders include international commodities trader Glencore and Indian investor Pramod Agarwal’s mining company, Zamin Group. Russian steel producer Severstal and Australian junior iron ore miner Centaurus Metals have also been named as possible bidders, according to press reports."
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3113018/Iron-ore-all/Glencore-Zamin-among-bidders-for-Anglos-Amapa-iron-ore-mine-sources-say.html

You'd think it would make sense for one of the big boys to acquire Cadence given the tiny market cap we have and the potential of the assets. Presumably if it is Glencore they would now be taking a look at this given they are now somewhat aware of the situation due to the off-take deal they would want to get in while it's cheap. Perhaps they'd be able to invest to fund us to 49%. Very interesting to see how this plays out.

A few things i've spotted:

Given the PRJ shows years 1-2 to have $32m Ebitda per year where does the $30-$40m stockpile valuation come from when it was stated to be $60m @ $80/t here which ties in:
"Reinvestment of Iron Ore Stockpile Sales.
· Amapá will begin shipping of the iron ore at stockpile as soon as possible. Based Amapá' s current understandings this is targeted to start by the end of 2019 and take between 18 to 24 months to ship.
· An independent survey of these stockpiles indicates some 1.39 Mt (+/- 10%) of iron ore in three stockpiles with an average Fe grade of 62.12% (+/ 10%), which based a US$80 per tonne of 62% Fe would net Amapá a forecast US$60 million net of costs.
· These funds are to be reinvested in the capital development of the Amapá Project"
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/LSE20190830070005_14207220/Approval-of-Judicial-Restructuring-Plan-Amapa

Is it because a set amount is destined for banks etc? There are interest expenses on the JRP P&L of $30m to deduct over those two years so perhaps it's those?

Roughly then without using JRP numbers:
Stockpile estimate @ above $80/t
1.39mt x $80 = $111m Revenue $60m profit after costs
Costs = $111m - $60m = $51m

Stockpile @ $160/t
1.39mt x $160 = $222m - $51m = $171m profit
----
We know that the banks were using the 62% Fe value in court and you can work out from this there are at least 3 million tons of stockpile (possibly includes Geralds claims?):
Union of Banks state that the Disposal of Iron Ore Fiduciary would far outweigh its credit (considering a quote of USD53.65 per ton) would total approximately USD 160 millions. In turn, on the present date, the quote is above USD 88.45 ton, so there was an excess of guarantee, since the value of the ore of iron would reach USD 265 million, that is, an excess of more than 135 million dollars. (https://in.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures).

@obs, not an expert on this but I thought that the 58% Sinter it is "Sinter Feed" which are fines that need sintering so they are cheaper.
Or are you saying there is a Sintering Plant invoved and it has already been Sintered?
The 2012 Anglo report lists it under the "Sinter Feed" type: Amapá Sinter Fines: Fe -­- 58.5% /Al2O3 – 1.8%/SiO2 – 9.5%
https://www.angloamerican.com/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Group/PLC/media/presentations/2012pres/global_iron_ore.pdf
"The term sinter feed indicates that the cargo is too fine-grained for direct use in a blast furnace and therefore will undergo a process of agglomeration (“sintering”) into larger particles at destination before smelting." - https://www.londonpandi.com/knowledge/news-alerts/liquefaction-risks-iron-ore-sinter-feed/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinter_plant/global_iron_ore.pdf

https://price.metal.com/Iron-Ore
58% Fe Fines (Qingdao Port, CFR Equiv.), USD/dmt Avg.:$146.36

@Obs Thanks, yes I forgot about the stockpiles completely in this instance, I this would explain the difference and significantly reduce the finance needed.

@O&W, $24m is our best guess given the structure of the deal seems plausible. As per "the presentation" it is not due for at least a year from now.
One option is selling some or all of our stake in EMH - currently worth around $22m, if EMH goes above £1 again (which i'd say is likely once off-takes happen) it would easily cover this requirement. Of course Debt / Equity raises are also possible options and i'd say it would depend on the share price at the time as to which is the best option.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JAN-2021-PUBLIC-1.pdf

Hi Obs & O&W,
It looks like we are highly likely to be lining up for 49% given the way the deal is structured.
My thoughts:
Our investment $2.5m and $3.5m are in to the JV co "Pedra Branca Alliance" (PBA) to take our percentage and not directly Dip A and B / C which are loans from PBA to "Dev Mineracao" (Dev) which PBA will own 99.9% of.
Presumably the $2.5m amount was chosen for the 20% deal because it was needed for this loan.

Dip A is a $2.5m Loan from PBA to DEV to pay small creditors but it would seem to me that this loan is no longer necessary for that purpose because the sale of $10m of ore is paying this $2.5m now. This would have been loaned from PBA to DEV at 18% interest.

Dip B is a second Loan $27.5m from PBA to Dev, Cadence will pay $3.5m in to PBA towards this and take 7% equity in return, the extra $24m "Project Equity" (as seen on presentation) would then be needed which Cadence would be responsible for funding 27% of ($6.5m). It is at this point we would be potentially able to fund the full $24m and take 49% costing us an extra $17.5m ($24-$6.5) giving Indo Sino a free carry to 51% at which point Indo Sino convert to an unsecured creditor (and taking a 30% haircut on their $49m debt).

It is at this point Dip C is taken where "Dev" is approved to borrow $85m (from a financier / bank) to finance the rest of project although the latest cadence presentation shows $140m-$150m.

This version of events makes the most sense to me and lines up with the investor presentation.
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JAN-2021-PUBLIC-1.pdf

@mlq only £700k https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/main-market-key-eligibility-criteria.pdf
Aim has benefits though (no stamp duty being one).

You can download Tradecraft's JRP docs and have a crack at it as some have.
The value will move towards the NPV or P/E basis once operational I expect which at 27% and strong ore prices should be above the $600 and closer to the $1.2bn (100% values). I have stated my own expectation once in production which would be at least £300m (27% value) which would see the share price over £2. Given the opportunity of the project even if I am wrong by £150m either way, the current SP will be seen as a bargain so I don't think precise valuations are too important at this stage. Cadence will be releasing the Scoping study once the 20% is taken so that should take most of the guesswork away.
It's worth remembering the other assets could be financed from the Amapa profits giving us a multiplier effect. Look at the valuations of Core Lithium (for LT&LS), Hastings Technology Metals (Yangibana) and Bacanora (Sonora) and it starts to get interesting regarding share prices once we are taken seriously by the market (and have proven to be profitable) as once we will have money to invest to fund our JVs etc these become more valuable/de-risked.

@eyeguy exactly, and I think Kiran mentioned in the AGM they would be more likely to invest in private rather than publicly traded assets. Investors are free to add EMH to their portfolio should they wish (as I have) so selling shouldn't be a big deal once we have Amapa if the funds can add more value there. It has been a good baseline to value the company off recently and helped the valuation as it has mostly been EMH giving KDNC value but that is likely to change once Amapa deal is done and we are making profits.

AA got this as part of a wider set of assets and decided this was "non-core" and sold to invest in Minas-Rio.
All easily researchable:
https://www.reuters.com/article/angloamerican-amapa-idUSL5E9C410E20130104
https://www.angloamerican.com/media/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-American-Plc/media/AngloAmerican_FS_Minas%20Rio.pdf

Info:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/investors/adr-program/
N.B there is still an Aquis listing
https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/member?securityidaqse=KDNC

It would be the same number of shares just traded in different places so market cap is the same.

The OTC listing is no longer traded and even if it was no it wouldn't make any difference to valuation.

@obs yes I won't click but I can imagine what it is and that's bad enough, I have accidentally stumbled in to a few of those chartist videos on twitter and can't click away quick enough :-).
I am liking todays rise though presumably it will start moving up towards it's fair value at some point.
---
Note on courts:
Seems to be a bit of activity around paperwork.....
MOVEMENTS
Date Movement
03/31/2021 Official letter Attached
03/31/2021 Electronic Message (e-mail) Attached
03/30/2021 Official letter Attached
03/30/2021 Electronic Message (e-mail) Attached
03/30/2021 Electronic Message (e-mail) Attached
N.B
Ofício Juntado -> Official letter Attached
(Translates incorrectly to Joined Office) https://www.proz.com/personal-glossaries/entry/12004117-official-letter-of%C3%ADcio

Note that the hyperlink link they are currently showing on the page :
vox markets .co.uk/articles/register-for-cadence-minerals-investor-webinar-a6b8d00
e.g:
vox markets .brand.live/c/vox-markets-webinar-wednesday-april-7th
is missing the "h" at the end so leads to a 404 copy and paste including the h and it works.

Cadence Minerals
(KDNC ) will be presenting an investor webinar hosted by Vox Markets.

The webinar will take place on 7th April 2021 at 5.30pm
Please register your interest and submit questions at https://**********.brand.live/c/vox-markets-webinar-wednesday-april-7th

The latest interview 1 minute in:
of the $10m Kiran was saying:
around $2.5m for small creditors
$6m for Dev for scoping studies + Dam repairs
$1m for Banks (presumably but not stated)