Member Info for EV_Bull

good spot captain, things are lining up very nicely.....

The project (100%) NPV is in the billions at today ore prices.
Based on historical low forward P/E of 6 SP for Amapa could be about £1.30 or more.
Just trying to give some idea of what to expect.

Anglo's 70% Stake in Amapa in 2011 earned $120m profit ($171m 100%) a year of high ore prices (yet still lower than today's).
27% of $171m = $46m = £32m
In Cadence terms at today's SP and share count this would be:
Earnings of 22p per share
P/E ratio of 1.3
Not directly comparable but compelling nonetheless.

"After this, Cadence will invest a further US$3.5 million to increase its stake to 27% in the Amapa project. Cadence's investment is conditional on several material pre-conditions, which include the grant of key operating licences."

It's at the bottom of every RNS MLQ as you well know.... 20% then 27% of the JV company "Pedra Branca Alliance" which will own 99.9% of Dev Mineracao.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/second-iron-ore-shipment-amapa-project-update-mtlura0harw64vt.html
"Cadence will become a 20% shareholder in the Amapa Project via our joint venture company, which will own 99.9% of DEV."

It's a private company Cadence will have part ownership of so there won't be a platform or price.

you can calculate this very easily.
Cadence has around 150m shares outstanding.
Amapa project (27%) worth well over £150m to Cadence £1+ per share incoming once deal is done.

Thinking another way, chance of deal completion in your opinion e.g for me 90%+ x £1 = todays fair value of Amapa project In my opinon is 90p/share excluding all other assets which are worth much more than 10p a share.
At 60p a share you're only giving a <50% chance of completion + 10p of other asset values.
At 30p you're at about 20% chance. My conclusion is the market is massively undervaluing the chance of deal going through (not the value of amapa).
Once we have Amapa producing cash to Cadence and an increased market cap, the other assets become more valuable as we are able to fund them to production more easily. This could unlock more value and has the potential to lead to the £2+ per share and beyond within the next 3 years or so.
Far below the true probability in my estimation.

circa 30 shipments

Another movement.
Date Movement
15/5/2021 Conclusions for Decision
Could be another good week ahead....

New to this CO Jimbo is correct: I had taken the "smelter charges" to mean that they were paid by the co. I don't think it matters in terms of calculating the value which way round it is.
But basically Revenue accounts for Tin price minus $1577 smelter cost
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ATM/uis-phase-1-expansion-8211-dfs-results-ojwtuuai9zt07y4.html
Notes:
1. Smelter charges deducted from revenue received to calculate net revenue/turnover
2. Smelter charges are approximately USD1,577/saleable tin tonne, which did not form part of the Direct Cash costs.

They pay a smelter to convert to pure tin and sell the tin at market prices.

MOVEMENTS on the main case 1088747-75.2015.8.26.0100
Date Movement
11/05/2021 Conclusions for Dispatch

Might hear something soon then.....

@cmsammy in the JRP Dip C is $85m that is to be funded via the holding company which is where the 49% would be possible if Indo don't want to fund their 73%.
See page 10 of the investor presentation for the funding needed in month 13 as below:
US$ 24 mm – Project Equity
US$ 140 -150 mm Project Financing
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JAN-2021-PUBLIC-1.pdf

or are at least going by their proper name now Mrwaynekerr, couldn't have said it better myself

I think he/she's moved on.......
https://www.hotelchocolat.com/uk/little-ray-of-sunshine.html

Have you thought about creating a group via Discord?

With any luck 3x this month 5-10x over the next 2 years. YMMV :)

lol - "second berth" - thanks for the hints :-)
Amazing job nonetheless @obs
Should be a huge rise on completion RNS. Also should be news regarding Sonora/Ganfeng, Hastings JV.

Nailed it @Obs "May involve using the Second Birth" at the port.

And the same buyer (Likely Glencore IMO) again