Member Info for EV_Bull

It's also worth remembering that there were of course originally three slots showing on the serveporto site.
The mention in the courts of four ships needed was before 1st April.

If I've read it correctly It seems like $3.3m profit from the first shipment, so four would definitely take it over the $10m. The other thing I noticed was only BRL 7.5m was paid to credit (USD $1.41m) 10% was held back from the total sale (~$.75m USD) giving $2.15m so it doesn't explain where the extra $1m would be going, perhaps operating costs.

Personally I am confident the Indian banks will sign very soon (or have already done so) as otherwise they risk becoming unsecured creditors. The 10 day timer on the banks may have been ticking for a few days already. The "Decision" looks to be a summary of case files that have happened in the past week or two. It's entirely possible that it's from the 15th of May.

I would start here if you're new
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZNJua-kYM4
24 months ish

Exactly tomcat, I won't use the "i" word but I expect the 20% to happen in the next week or so.

If I read it correctly $7.3m sale minus $4m in costs per shipment gives $3.3m profit per ship.
Also gives a stockpile net profit value around $100m. Presumably costs would be lower if the private port is brought back in to action.

Dated 24th but it’s entirely possible some of the events occurred before that.

shipment of 45,947.253 tonnes of wet iron ore, cost total including freight of approximately US $ 3.99 million, estimated receipt of US $ 7.3 million for the sale, estimated deposit in a judicial accountin April / 2021

Four shipments @obs lol
"The Judicial Administrator presents a report of visit related to the Recuperanda operations observed on 11, 16 and 19 December March 2021. The transfer of iron ore to the Port of CDSA with the use of 10 trucks and approximately 45 people. It was reportedby Ms. Raquel, from the team at Recuperanda, which will be shipped to China the iron ore in four ships expected to start on April 1, 2020"

Quite a bit to read through but the main part:

Recuperanda informs about the first sale of iron ore and deadline for depositing the amount obtained, that is, R $ 7.5 million. informs absence of finalization of the Agreement with the Union of Banks, noting that Recuperanda and Investors accepted the changes suggested by the Union of Banks. Emphasizes that only Indian banks do not presented the accepted draft of the Agreement. Informs that the delay in finalizing the Agreement is bringing losses to Recuperanda. Reiterates the request for assessment of the expiry of guarantees and prescription of credit. In the end it requires the subpoena of the Bank Syndicate concludes the transaction, under the terms of the Proposal and 02.07.2020, the addendum of 02.04.2021). The Union of Banks is manifested in 10 days.

The BOD could be said to have insider information at this point I would have thought so may not be able to buy.
They also just awarded themselves 1.8m shares each don't forget.

It will also cost them ~£550k each to excercise/buy them, as Obs says they'd only do it when they are much higher as they would sell some at the time to cover those costs.

Yes, I am loading up before the news

Yeah, It won’t be for us as it’s too small.

I think they look like futures.
Even at $20,000/d and 70 days = $1.4m. I still can't imagine it takes 4 ships to get to $10m though...
Roughly $20m in ore sales for the 3 shipments. Max $4.5m shipping costs and It looks like the $10m includes 10% to the banks also so I shouldn't have deducted it.

We're at > $15m there so minus port and ore movement costs guessing no more than $1-2m , consistent with what Kiran said, it can't be more than 3 shipments for me.

($2.5m creditors +$1m banks + $6m Studies + $0.5m working capital)
"The first portion of the net revenues shall be used to pay historic small and employee creditors (~US$2.5 million), after which approximately US$ 6 million of the net revenues will be used to begin recommissioning studies on the Amapa Iron Ore Project. The remaining net revenues will be used to provide working capital for the operations and payment against the outstanding amount due to the Bank Creditors."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/first-iron-ore-shipment-from-amapa-since-2015-tc6c4vu5xq87xj0.html

A few sources:
https://thecoalhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Weekly-Report-Week-4-2021.pdf
Back in Feb 21 Supramax trip charter Marlin V appears to be W.Africa via ECSA/ N. China - S5 = $17235/d

https://www.ssyonline.com/free-charts/bulk-carrier-time-charter-rates/#

I just can't see it stretching to 4 and Kiran stated 2 to 3 in interviews.
The maths on 4 ships it's over $25m in revenue and I just can't imagine there being $15m of costs.
Even lowballing $140/t x 3 = $18.9m revenue so say 10% to banks is -$1.9m. say $1m per ship in shipping and $1m in handling and port costs -$6m is still $11m and that's low ball estimates in my opinion and over estimating costs.

I can't see that any more than a maximum of 3 shipments are possible prior to the agreement (2 of which are now completed of course).

Therefore given that two ships are en-route and the way Kiran has been talking in recent interviews.... my best guess is that the banking syndicate representatives have approved of the deal, the 3 banks have either signed, or it's a formality because they have already agreed to it all (perhaps some other dept / higher ups at the banks had to sign it off hence delays), Cadence are waiting for court ratification and the ships have been booked knowing it's all going to be done by the time they arrive before formally confirming.

Remember the previous shipping deal took 7 days to be fully ratified in court. In the mean time the ships are booked and on their way knowing it's all basically approved except for the formalities of the legal process.
This could also have been approved in the court on the 15/5/2021 Conclusions for Decision pending the documents.
Previously the decisons were published on the same day but perhaps they are waiting for the bank syndicate documents before publishing the full decision.

The 10% cut for the Banks could potentially push it in to a third shipment but not a fourth.

It's $10m net profit not 10%, 3 45t shipments would almost certainly be over $10m profit.
Even at $150/t with $1.75m of costs per shipment.
Shipping costs at $10-13k per day are likely to be $750k-$1m per ship leaving $750k for port and handling costs? two shipments ought to have done it.

"This shipment was approved via a court petition ("Approved Court Petition"), details of which can be found here, allowing DEV to export sufficient iron ore to realise a US$10 million profit."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/KDNC/second-iron-ore-shipment-amapa-project-update-mtlura0harw64vt.html