Member Info for EV_Bull

Agreed, the shipping of ore weakens the banks hands as their choices are do a deal or become unsecured creditors. That is perhaps why they are suddenly aligned. The "gamble" on whether the deal goes through and when is what gives the opportunity for the massive upside here of course if you could say for certain it's going to happen next week we'd be above 60p.
I believe that many in the markets do not understand probability and "Expected Value" and trade on sentiment and other things (chart's etc - each to their own as this inneficiency in the market is better for me/you). You have to come up with your own likelihood and valuation and look at the risk/reward which is in my view very appealing as I believe there is a high likelihood of the deal being completed in the near future.
We will all find out in due course.
Good luck

Some past footage of the Amapa operation for those interested
https://www.facebook.com/aladir.pires.5/posts/270305674752076

So help us all out here mrcautious discount that "worth" back to today at a meaningful discount rate to approximate the value in todays money (i.e an NPV).
Let us know what you come up with.
Thanks

slow news day.... just a reminder of what we have to look forward to since there's "going to be a series of constant news flow going here until production, which is all positive."

Q2: Now that shipping has started, what are the next steps?

A2: Well, the critical next step and the obvious one that we’ve talked about clearly in that announcement is that we need vest 20% and how does that occur?

Well, it really works by, in essence, us reaching a settlement agreement with the secure bank creditors, once that’s occurs, that is a precondition of the creditor approved JRP – Judicial Review Process. Once that occurs, we reach a settlement agreement, our $2.5 million exists in escrow will be released and we will get our 20% of the assets.

From there, once we’ve got our 20% in the asset, that process of taking it from what is going to be shipping its iron on a regular basis over 18 to 24 months, that iron ore being utilised for the redevelopment of the asset and carrying out studies to feasibility study levels. That will then allow us to finance the project, either through partly a debt project finance, through the stockpiles that are occurring and some equity. After that, once you finance the project, you construct it, you look to production.

Now, from when we get our 20% to when we go into full-time production, i.e., not from the stockpile, we estimate that it’s going to be around 24 months or thereabouts to get to that point.

So that’s an aggressive target but we hope to be able to achieve it once we put our 20% so those are really our next steps.

In the short term, obviously assuming that we get our bank settlement done, with both parties are aligned here to get it done now, we will then be looking at scoping studies to show the value of this asset to our shareholders. That’s going to be a series of constant news flow going here until production, which is all positive.

I think one thing that we’ve really noticed, we should notice, is this asset now, as soon as the shipment has occurred, is effectively profit making and will be so, all things being equal, all the way through to the end of this mine life now.

Yes and good to note that the butressing at the port was mostly already done in the Zamin days.
If I understood I think the dam was needing further studies and then some maintenance but generally good condition yes and nothing to be concerned about. As Kiran stated that's one of the benefits maintenance and repairs are tiny in comparison to starting from scratch and of course the profit potential due to this is massive.

Airvpn

This was explained in the webinar “Dev” is doing work. Cadence have loaned money to Dev at 18% to allow the shipment to take place. The money from the shipment is then being used for small creditors, studies and to start works on the Dam and Port and presumably repaying the loan from Cadence.

The site isn’t down it’s now geo blocked you need a vpn which terminates in Brazil to get to it.

Saw this just incase anyone is interested
www . directors talk interviews .com/cadence-minerals-qa-moving-amapa-project-forward-through-to-development-and-eventual-production-lonkdnc/412975411

Reminder: last week's webinar is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZNJua-kYM4

@evan yes, we will own 20%/27%/49% of Dev indirectly via our (20%/27%/49%) stake in Pedra Branca Alliance which will own 99.9% of Dev.

@Evan, not exactly because we will own 20%/27%/49% of Dev. Cadence have loaned directly to Dev at this point as far as I know.

I personally start with a 27% base case as that is already agreed at $3.5m and we are already contributing financially in the project which will be used towards this extra 7%. It’s the 49% opportunity that makes things interesting.

Good spot yes, the $600 seems to be prevalant now Kiran did mention the ore price we got on the call which was good to get confirmation on and also the 2/3 shipments needed for $10m.
"The Mining News website found that ore was priced at US $ 167.05 per ton, value of the input in the Chinese market on February 26."

Found some Handymax rates and the price spike is noticable but will probably come down now the Suez situation is settling down.
https://www.hudsonshipping.com/?q=node/5369
https://www.ssyonline.com/free-charts/bulk-carrier-freight-rates/#

"This shipment brings Amapá back to life," says president of Cadence:
https://www.cleberbarbosa.net/esse-embarque-traz-o-amapa-de-volta-a-vida-diz-presidente-da-casdence/

Thanks Obs, so add another £11m then. but means these are conservative estimates offering a big margin of safety.
I also have no plans to sell any time soon, as I say patience will be rewarded here.

$30m-$40m is very conservative for the stockpile valuation that is

Kiran also confirming that the $30m-$40m is very conservative as we knew which will mean less capital needed to finance the refurb.

Agree obs,
Very conservative valuation of Amapa 27% stake using Anglo $600m (stated by Kiran) value £118m
50% risked probability of Amapa £118m is £59m + £16m EMH & other assets etc £75m ~ anything under 50p/ share is where I think value lies today pre-deal completion so there is still plenty of value here in my opinion so 35p doesn’t seem unreasonable.
60p+ on the 20% and £1+ on taking the 27% seems fair too so even at 35p this is still a bargain.
Interesting to hear the 49% discussed and Kiran keen to take us to there.

Mac "Kiran can't announce/discuss/answer anything that is price sensitive" this is not the case as the market is closed and an RNS could be produced before market open with any market sensitive information.

oooooooooooooooh...
More than likely we will get some institutional buyers at some point TR1s etc.
Anyone else think Glencore might have a look at us?