Member Info for EV_Bull

I'm referring to >£40k of sells today, it takes a while for the buys to come in to absorb a (relatively) big sale, when there is little volume.

I think expectations are a little out of whack, we had a very comprehensive and positive update only 11 days ago, I don't think anything that is said will make much difference until the deal lands. People have their reasons for selling, some that have 3-4x gains over the past year or so or stop losses etc. There is not always rhyme or reason to it and any decent volume sell or buy will move the SP quickly.

I know we all want this to happen yesterday but given the management "have a high degree of confidence that we will execute a settlement agreement" then I will be waiting for said deal for as long as it takes.

Tomorrow (7th) is a public holiday in Brazil.

"The banks cannot prevent the company's business from continuing, especially to the point of preventing its recovery."

26 August 2021
http://irservices.netbuilder.com/ir/cadence/newsArticle.php?ST=REM&id=311428214199398325
"The focus of the Company since the beginning of the year has been its investment into the Amapa Iron Ore Project ('Amapa Project'). This investment continues to be our top priority which has involved finalising the settlement agreement with the secured bank creditors and the advancement of the pre-feasibility study on the asset. The delays in crystallising our investment are a result of the secured bank creditors' internal bureaucratic process, which is required when settling a loan of this value and under the terms agreed. Nonetheless we have continued to move the Amapa Project forward which has included, amongst other things, the iron ore stockpile shipments commencing in March and the pre-feasibility studies starting soon after that. "

"We understand that this process has been frustrating, given that we agreed on the principal terms of the settlement in September 2020, but this matter has been outside of our control. The alternative to the current agreed (in principle) settlement would be hugely detrimental to the secured bank creditors, nonetheless. We have a high degree of confidence that we will execute a settlement agreement and it will be announced as soon as it is completed. "

Worth remembering the ganfeng bcn buyout is also very positive for us.
"As far as the Company is aware, the Possible Offer has no direct effect on our joint ventures. Should the cash offer be successful, it will be highly encouraging for the development of the project, given Ganfeng's involvement in the development of the asset to date, their extensive experience in the lithium market and the fact that their holding company is the world's third-largest (and China's largest) lithium compounds producer. "

Disclaimer (thx Obs):
"The deal may be days, weeks or months away, maybe even next year. We don't know. No one does. But what we do know is that it could land any time, today even: this makes it imminent in my eyes, but I'm more than happy for others to believe to the contrary, it's what makes a market. :-))))"

Today on the 04/09th, the Santana Docks Company in the State of Amapá receives on pier 02 the Warnowborg ship of the German Flag bringing in its submarines 900 km of underwater optical fiber cables that will make the first phase of interlocking the Amazon from Bethlehem to Tabatinga Operation Ship to Barge from the ship to Balsa Prates is underway with a 10-day cable overpass expected. The Maritime Agency and Port Operation is the responsibility of the Serveporto Group.

https://www.facebook.com/110037595798039/posts/2358989574236152/

It’s a cable laying vessel

If we want to pass time talking handles, there wasn't really much thought in to it:

Bull as in bullish Yes, the backstory, wishing to be anonymous I needed a handle that I hadn't used on any other platform and was watching some @LithiumIonBull interviews on EMH https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull

The EV part is of course Electric Vehicles which I an bullish on but also Expected Value of which I am a proponent so I liked the multiple meanings.

Indeed, the SP makes no sense at the moment given what are about to have.
The thing is to keep in mind is that full production and reasonable Fe prices (27%) would likely mean £2-£3 per share (49%) up to £5.
Max capacity of 11mt/yr you could double those numbers.
The market has basically decided it's not happening or doesn't like it, massive opportunity for profits if/when it goes ahead as planned. The reward is extreme here for the relatively limited downside given the other assets. It boggles the mind.

It's not in Dev's name and It's not even planned for docking at santana port.
All of the Ore ships are >45,000T

no, it's way too small.

@MLQ that's a mistake
LEFKES is 25kt of Soya protein concentrate for Caramuru, it should say MANDARIN DALIAN

They go hand in hand, no doubt they will want to accelerate stage two and perhaps go beyond it.
Stage two is a further $380m investment to get to 35,000tpa
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-Company-Presentation-June-2021.pdf

Across all of their projects they want 600,000T not sure what the capacity of their other projects are:
"Jiangxi-based Ganfeng said in late March it planned to boost production capacity roughly fivefold to 600,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually, without providing a timeframe."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ganfeng-lithium-capacity-idUSKCN2DK1PD

From Kluck17 on BCN board.
“Today I received an email from my Brokers requesting me to advise them by not later than 10/9/ 2021 whether I accept the GFL offer. Has anybody else received similar notice? Does this deadline mean that the deal may be concluded sooner rather than later? “

Perhaps we could also hear about some interest from Ganfeng before too long.

Exactly,
As could any of the following:
EMH offtakes (or buyout)
Sonora buyout
Yangibana buyout
LT & LS - Drilling / sale / spinoff

Other things of note:
Dip A (on 20%) / Dip B (on 27%/49%) could be used to fund any near term capital requirements if shipping is not economically viable at the current rates once the deal is signed off which as we know is imminent ;-).

Assuming still held the "trading portfolio" is doing well:
Charger metals +17.76%
Eagle Mountain Mining +11.49%

Disclaimer (thx Obs):
"The deal may be days, weeks or months away, maybe even next year. We don't know. No one does. But what we do know is that it could land any time, today even: this makes it imminent in my eyes, but I'm more than happy for others to believe to the contrary, it's what makes a market. :-))))"

Partly because of our market cap, any more and Ganfeng would be better buying KDNC out as well or at least attempting to, partly because they are the only likely buyer of it as it doesn't make as much sense for anyone else to buy it.
I haven't calculated any approximations of sonora npv or value etc and I know LCE is way higher now.
I know for a fact that the assets KDNC have are worth way way more than £36m so I don't really need to, happy to just wait and see how it all pans out. I really don't see a long term loss as a likely possibility from the current market value and the current boom in the commodities cycle.

Note: Given mining in 9 years time $200m at an 8% NPV is £72m in todays money or £61m at 10% discount.

Bacanora planned the majority of the original mining from La Ventana and La Ventana 1 Cadence Minerals has no interest in these concessions. They had no reason to mention Cadence, there is no mining agreement with Cadence as far as I know.

Cadence areas were planned to start to be mined from year 9 and around 4% of the total 20 year mine plan would be attributable to Cadence (30% of 12%).

This is very likely to change substantially now Ganfeng are buying BCN meaning more mining in the JV areas as they are planning to scale it up massively.

However, I would expect Ganfeng to offer to buy our share of the Sonora project so they can take 100% control of it.
Given the crazy low market cap we have the market clearly doesn't understand or value these correctly so I think that make a sale even more likely.
Imagine getting £50m for them for example which would make KDNC worth £65m + Amapa + Yangibana
That money could be used to take 49% of Amapa and add substantial value instead of waiting several years for sonora not to mention capital would be required to fund our 30% area and it just starts to get very messy, hence why the buyout is the likely option given Ganfeng are a multi-billion dollar company and we are miniscule in comparison.
Ganfeng made > $100m profit last year and raised $600m to buy out lithium assets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ganfeng-lithium-placement-idINL2N2NS3BJ
"June 11 (Reuters) - Ganfeng Lithium , one of the world’s top lithium producers, said on Friday it would sell around HK$4.9 billion ($630 million) in new shares to boost capacity and fund potential investments."

Hope this helps

We own 0% of BCN but 30% of El Sauz, El Sauz 1, El Sauz 2, Fleur and Fleur 1 concessions, which are held by Mexilit S.A. de C.V. (“Mexilit”). Cadence has a 30% direct interest in Mexalit through its Joint Venture with Bacanora.

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

It is of course related to the following:
"Com brevidade, providencie a Serventia a expedição dos Mandados de Levantamento Eletrônicos deferidos para pagamento da Administradora Judicial, Sindicato dos Estivadores e pagamentos dos custos e despesas da Recuperanda."

"arrange for the Office to issue the Electronic Survey Orders granted for payment to the Judicial Administrator, Dockers' Union and payments of the costs and expenses of the Debtor."

MOVIMENTAÇÕES
Data Movimento
27/08/2021 Pedido de Expedição de Mandado de Levantamento Juntado
Nº Protocolo: WJMJ.21.41423593-3 Tipo da Petição: Pedido de Expedição de Mandado de Levantamento Data: 27/08/2021 21:34

Translation:

MOVEMENTS
Date Movement
27/08/2021 Request for Issuance of an Attached Withdrawal Order
Protocol No.: WJMJ.21.41423593-3 Type of Petition: Request for Issuance of a Withdrawal Order Date: 08/27/2021 21:34

Only three Mandado de Levantamento's for those playing along.
Appears related to transfer of money and known as an MLE.
Would be good to know the amount but I won't speculate that it's for $2.5m or that anything is imminent haha Patience Daniel-san.

@joesnatch we've known about that site yes.
I just didn't notice the info around the private port capability information there until now (wasn't really looking). Or the Panamax testing/capability at the Santana port.
This must not be fully sanctioned yet otherwise you'd assume we'd be booking those larger vessels given the possible savings.
But it's interesting to note just how much lower in cost $/tonne terms going to those bigger vessel. Less than half the cost on a $/t basis, which would make the stockpiles worth a lot more from a net profit perspective.

That sounds promising, it would be fortuitous if the pause allowed for that to complete. Seems like they've already had one sucessful docking as per below text.

http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/o-porto
Pier A : 200m long, 12m deep and has a berth suitable for Panamax type ships.
----
https://www.cleberbarbosa.net/praticagem-preve-entrada-de-navios-maiores-no-porto-de-santana/
http://www.revistaportuaria.com.br/noticia/20402
------
Port of Santana receives Panamax bulk carrier
Companhia Docas de Santana - CDSA introduction last Saturday morning, 29, the first Panamax-sized ship approved by the Brazilian Navy. The IVESTOS 6 is a Liberian bulk carrier with 225 meters in length and carrying capacity of up to 76 thousand tons.
The docking of ships of this size at the Port of Santana is the result of a management action involving a CDSA, a Pilotage and the Brazilian Navy that culminated in a study on the maneuverability of ships in the Santana Channel, carried out by the University of São Paulo - USP, a conclusion which took place after simulations in the Numerical Evidence Tank - TPN, at the university's headquarters, in August of this year, which proved the feasibility and safety of maneuvering larger ships than those currently operated.
The CEO of CDSA, Glauco Cei, who accompanied the simulations in São Paulo, highlighted the importance of this study, which had not taken place for 30 years, and which was carried out after a request from the municipality of Santana, for improvements, training and increased potential for investments in the Port of Santana in the medium and long term.
"With the arrival of ships of this size, we are going to go from a loading level of 45 to 50 thousand to 70 thousand tons of cargo on the same ship, making the Port of Santana more specific", special.
Santana Docks Company

https://www.facebook.com/docasdesantana/posts/2737872053157753
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A better source, was under our noses:
http://www.docasdesantana.com.br/index.php/o-porto

PRIVATE TERMINALS
Anglo Ferrous : with 270m of pier and 12m of draft, it operates in the export of ore.