RE: Lithium -They got it wrong - very wrong22 Aug 2021 12:53
I have done the same Jimb, sold EMH and BCN added to KDNC, there just seems to be so much more opportunity here when looking at the risk/reward profile given our current (under) valuation.
The BCN deal could take 6-12 months to close, however it does add value to the KDNC JV as they will want 100% ownership and our area will form a large part of their plans to scale up the project.
The EMH stake accounts for 10p per share in KDNC currently ~£15m. Not to mention the cash from the stake we've sold (likely enough to cover the 27%).
I estimate that we have at least 5m in cash / loaned out money / money in escrow / Macarthur stake.
Strip that and EMH out (£20m) and you have £16m market cap left for Amapa, Sonora JV, Yangibana JV, LT & LS.
Use the $660m ~£485m impaired valuation of Amapa:
20% = £97m (for $2.5m)
27% = £130m (for an extra $3.5m)
49% = £237m (for an extra $27m?)
Note you'd have to deduct the cash used to fund Amapa from above.
Sonora is easily worth £20m to Ganfeng or Hanwa
Yangibana is worth 5% of Hastings in my mind £8.65m currently
LT&LS >£0 could be worth something in future core lithium could buy it for a few £m.
So where should fair value be today?
EMH £15m
Cash etc £5m
Sonora £20m
Yangibana £8m
Running total £48m
Amapa 27% £125m (£130m-£5m to buy stake) * chance of deal closing (e.g 90%) = £112.5m
Amapa extra 22% (49%) = ~£215m - £125m (£237m –Dip B $27m) * chance of deal closing (e.g 90%) * chance of first right of refusal option (e.g 50%) Total: £40.5m
Total Valuation: £201m (90% chance Amapa deal closes)
Price per share (90% chance of Amapa deal): £1.29
Price per share (50% chance of Amapa deal): £0.85
Price per share (10% chance of Amapa deal): £0.40
The market has got this share wrong big time IMO. Please tell me why I'm massively wrong as I'd love to know.