Member Info for EV_Bull

Rule 5p "If you are going to post non-English, please also post an English translation of your post."

And also multiple accounts we know it's you JimH @maddog38:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grimreaper1/
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grimreaper2/

I think what you see as the negative Nick I see as the positive, the market has priced this with a huge amount of scepticism but any one of our assets could deliver substantial value to shareholders, rather than being reliant on only one thing to happen.
If any one of two or three of the assets come good we are all going to do very well which increases the chances.
I think investors do better with a longer term mindset rather than a day trader mindset.

Our holding in EMH alone could easily make up the current market cap with some positive developments - offtakes, approvals etc.
Sonora could be sold to Ganfeng.
Hastings are rapidly heading towards production.
Amapa news could land any day.

Look at some other companies in the sector like Bradda Head at £22m MCAP and they are literally just exploring / drilling. We are easily worth 3x what they are today IMO.

You know what to do guys,
GrimReaper1 was also registered on the same day so no doubt over who it is.
Here is the full list:

maddog38
GrimReaper1
GrimReaper2
jumpingjack01
booobla
fcemall
Ivegotthehump
Sharepriceup
TeslaEMHisYUGE
RayPugh
Rayofsunshine
Yune
mrlithium

Nick, you never know what the short term markets can do in either direction, but in the longer term I believe the assets will deliver, so I'm actually very happy with my holding as a long term oriented investor.
Fair enough Iron Ore is dipping but look at the Lithium sector and the demand for EVs is only set to increase year on year now heading towards the ban on internal combustion engines and implementation of Zero emissions zones.
The predictions for long term Iron Ore prices will still give Amapa a very healthy profit margin and I fully expect the courts to rule in our favour and believe that this could be very soon.

lol, in case you haven't looked the entire market is down.
Even the dearly beloved (by some) Bitcoin is down 7%. FTSE -1.69%, Oil - 2.1%.
Commodities tend to do well during times of inflation.

The $34 extra would be to the benefit of the pellet producer buying our concentrate and converting it.

Could be wrong but I was assuming we would get the concentrate premium on top of the seaborne fines price from our benefication process.
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
"Seaborne index 65% Fe concentrates premium" of an additional $19/t is that your understanding too?
There is a $53/t premium for the pellets so $53 - $19 a $34 extra for the conversion process.

Morning @Obs,
I may have not been clear in my wording yes, the 'pellet feed' would need pelletizing rather than sintering. The point I was trying to make is this is a more preferred feedstock in comparison to sinter feed and attracts a premium.

"Pelletizing is a process where iron ore concentrate is mixed with additives and binder and rolled together into balls. The finished iron ore products are known as pellets."

https://abmproceedings.com.br/ptbr/article/download-pdf/comparison-of-sinter-and-pellet-usage-in-an-integrated-steel-plant

"The higher Fe content of pellets increases blast furnace productivity as more iron
units are charged to the blast furnace per unit ton of burden material. Shipping costs
are reduced as more iron units and less undesirable gangue are shipped to the final
blast furnace user."

Macarthur could ‘smash the carbon ball out of the park’ with renewable energy penetration at Lake Giles
.........

As could Dev in Amapa, as the higher grade ore's are much lower emissions and we should be able to get hydro power to the site:

"DEV has appointed IDG Engenharia E Consultoria LTDA ('IDG') to carry out the engineering and conditioning study on the beneficiation and processing plant at the Amapa mine. IDG is a Brazilian ISO approved engineering and consulting company with a broad range of experience in the sector, having worked for Vale, Arcelor Mittal, Kinross, London Mining and Anglo American. They also have specific expertise at the Amapa mine, having consulted on the project previously."

"In addition to the engineering and conditioning study, IDG will review the power supply options for the mine and plant, particularly the possibility of connecting to the grid network, enabling the mine and the plant to be predominantly powered by lower-cost renewable energy."

As I understand it the 65% Pellet Feed product from Amapa can be used as direct feed to the blast furnace without sintering.
"Concentrates that are very finely sized are known as ‘pellet feed’ - as the name suggests, they are suitable for pelletizing. This process creates a higher-quality and more valuable direct-charge product than either lump or sinter."

https://www.fastmarkets.com/Media/Files/PRA/FMV2/pdfs/Promotional%20materials/Understanding_the_high-grade_iron_ore_market_Fastmarkets.pdf Page 4

"China's production curbs and emission cuts favor demand for direct feeds over fines. Higher steel margins bolstered by the production curbs could encourage mills to use more high-grade materials, including direct feeds, in Q2. Direct feeds also produce less emissions, which is a focus of China's current 14th Five-Year Plan."

@Obs, I've been having a look at the EMH PFS numbers with it being based on $12,000/t LiOH and $22,500/t Tin. Coming at it from a different method and in no way based on your numbers.

So purely hypothetically and just for fun if today’s commodity prices were to be static throughout the next 20 years and everything went to plan with the Cinovec project.

Based on the model on page 26 here https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/EMH-Feb-Report-2021-FD.pdf and the latest presentation https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/european-metals-presentation-july-2021.pdf page 14

Tin & other credits are $1441/t in the PFS
Tin is up over 50% since the PFS so credits would be closer to $2000/t
Operating costs are then <$3000/t.

At the project level (100%) 25ktpa – no expansion factored in
Revenue would be $562m EBITDA $357m
Profit would then be $268m
NPV 8 would be ~ $2.1B
49% (EMH Share) = $1.04BN
9.7% (KDNC Share of EMH) = $100M
EMH Valuation 50% risked NPV8 = $500m £2.06 per share
De-risked NPV8 = £4.12 per share

You would (more than) double the above numbers for the second shift / 50ktpa scenario
Somewhere above £4.25/sh for the 50% risked and above £8.50/sh for de risked NPV8.
How far above would depend on the cost savings of using the same plant and equipment. This could easily be $200m+ so £1 or more per share in savings which would bring the valuation in line with Obs £9.40/sh.
For Cadence this would be £9.40/ EMH share x 17,463,864 shares which is £164,160,321 > £1.07 per cadence share.

No EMH dilution is factored in here, this is no way intended to be “fair value” or realistic, just an indication of what the current lithium prices would mean for a project like this if sustained and why there is huge potential for upside from today’s market value.

It's quite funny because I have cast iron proof you silly gorilla

@mrc Today, I’m at about a £35m very conservative valuation in the unlikely event Amapa didn’t happen, still higher than today’s mcap and my avg but I think with an offer for the Sonora JVs likely it’s a good safety net in any event. We would have a few mill to come back if that were to be the case in loans and escrow. Hence how attractive an investment it is at this price.

“Maddog JimH BoobRay” likes a spot of golf and a gamble don’t forget. Fun fact, did you also know DizzyG was the name of a horse @Jimb2

Sure, I'll dust off the spreadsheet later @Obs now we've solved another one of life's mysteries.

Do you prefer Jack to Jim? Mr H?

I've priced it in to my model MrC.

I have conclusive proof now @Barksy regarding the link from @maddog38 to JH and of course brings the account of the poster that didn't want any links clicking in to question.

Thanks @Jimb2 I had forgotten about the one with the hump.

I doubt you want the truth to be posted here @maddog38 / J.. H......

It doesn't matter anyway, just a bit of fun eh? Quite easy to reveal who's who via the comments on every single post on here:
https://www.facebook.com/cadenceminerals/
and
https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals

Except you created fcemall 11th Mar 2018..... and posted 01 Aug 2021 10:29
Seems a lot like some of our other friends?

Struck a nerve? How much have you lost? I feel sorry for you.