Member Info for EV_Bull

It’s £54,990 the “discounts” are petrol savings

correction - to not two (youtube transcript).

https://youtu.be/mGhDQjFgP7k?t=541

"we'll be looking for project funding on or around 2021 of $24 million, that will be project equity, that can be a new partner going into the asset at the asset level, so we'd still have our 27 percent or of course you know we could go up to 49 percent, it really depends on the economics, the great thing is we have choices here and then you look for one hundred and forty to one hundred and fifty million worth of debt financing which would fund the recommissioning"

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUNE-2021-1-1.pdf

we haven't been told for sure and it may be subject to negotiation, however...
It is basically the Dip B financing which is $27.5m also listed on slide 9 as "Project Equity" ($24m-$50m).
Subtract our $3.5m from $27.5 and that's your $24m figure.
Indo Sino won't want to (or can't afford to) invest anything in and are exchanging equity for cash to fund the project and that is how the deal is structured.
I believe this is where our "first right of refusal" comes in to go to 49% as we could allow a third party to fund this instead and they would take a 22% stake, of course we could also sell out at that point. This was discussed by Kiran, I have posted a transcript below but the full interview is worth a watch.

Have a listen here:
https://youtu.be/mGhDQjFgP7k?t=541

"we'll be looking for project funding on or around 2021 of $24 million, that can be project equity, that can be a new partner going into the asset at the asset level, so we'd still have our 27 percent or of course you know we could go up to 49 percent, it really depends on the economics, the great thing is we have choices here and then you look for one hundred and forty two hundred and fifty million worth of debt financing which would fund the recommissioning"

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUNE-2021-1-1.pdf

Hi Miguel,
Thanks for the info, I definitely expect shipping costs to come down which only serves to improve the prospects. I always aim to be as conservative as possible with the numbers which look very good however you slice them.
There was $2/t SG&A that needed to be included on top so you can call it $38/t for shipping.
I am sure Cadence will publish official numbers when we get a PFS and there is also the possibility of 67% ore that was mentioned and that attracting an even greater premium.

There is still the interesting option of going up to 49%.
None of this is really priced in at 22p, still a bargain, but hopefully when the 20% is official the market will wake up.

How does this get above £1 per share? Pretty easily actually.
The current mine plan would mean that the Amapá Project would produce at steady state production an estimated 4.4 Mt of 65% Fe and 0.9 Mt of 62% Fe per annum.
$150/t x 4.4m = $660m $126x0.9= $113.4m so total revenue at full production $773m (£566.5m) per annum.
Life of mine OPEX – US$ 21 / tonne - as per June presentation
Shipping to China $40/t (my estimate)
Capex & Loan repayments $10/t (my estimate)
Tax $26/t (my estimate)
Net Profit $48/t x 5.3m = $254m (£186m) x 27% = £50m to Cadence per year
P/E 8 = £400m Market Cap = >£2/share

Yes, my estimates are probably wrong, but how far off am I? Well Anglo made $120m in 2011
If my estimates are 50% out this is still above £1 (£25m/yr profit to Cadence - almost the entire market cap per year) and that's just Amapa remember and not considering 49%.

Ore Prices: http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

KM quoted >$140/t at present for the Amapa 65% pellet feed product.

Yes Mike

I think this needs an update @Kiran? CEZ own 51% of Geomet.

"Cadence holds approximately 9.7% percent of the equity in European Metals, which, through its wholly owned Subsidiary, Geomet s.r.o. ("Geomet"), controls the mineral exploration licenses awarded by the Czech State over Cinovec."

From EMH
"The operator of the project is Geomet s.r.o., 49% owned by EMH and 51% owned by CEZ a.s. Gross and Net resources attributable to EMH. are the same. "

https://chargermetals.com.au/asx-announcements/

Keep up Mike.. See here - Cadence listed on slide 4 3% owner:
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/CHR/02419413.pdf
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/pwj1lr/cadence_increases_stake_in_charger_metals_to_3/

Not sure what you mean Mike as we know the details of LT/LS.
Assuming they take up the option we would stand to gain 29% of 1m-3m AUD in CCZ shares depending on drilling results. A minimum of ~£145k and maximum of around £440k.
Detailed here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/pxpmqc/rns_option_granted_to_castillo_copper_asxlon_ccz/

CHR Halted for an exploration update according to this https://stockhead.com.au/news/closing-bell-investors-dine-out-on-yellowcake-as-the-asx-trades-flat/

Yes, what about it? It got wiped out in the restructuring.
No mention in their annual reports:
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/APG_ANNUAL_REPORT_2020_Interactive-pdf.pdf

Crazy that anyone would be selling at this point with the 20% round the corner.

https://youtu.be/wGS8xIZCqhM?t=568
Q: "What's next"
A: "basically I see obviously the signing the settlement agreement and our vesting of the 20% but going forward that's pretty easy"

https://www.mining-journal.com/m-amp-a/news/1419398/cadence-closer-to-restarting-former-anglo-american-mine-in-brazil

https://twitter.com/CadenceMinerals/status/1447585982132461575
"Cadence can vest its initial 20% & eventually a further 7%, which in practical terms means we have a clear path & process to get Amapá recommissioned, licensed, back into production"

Another Podcast with Alan Green and a further interview to come:
https://audioboom.com/posts/7958208-alan-green-covers-news-from-tesco-cadence-minerals-mosman-oil-gas
KDNC from 10:00

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/alpha/2021/10/11/a-bargain-play-on-the-e-scooter-craze/
I've been holding this for a while, very under the radar and surely will re-rate at some point towards £10/share

Todays buying seems to be triggered by this article:
https://pdfs.investorschronicle.co.uk/Simon_IC_Alpha_Report_111021_067143.pdf
Simon Thompson’s view:
It’s not often you get the opportunity to lock into a 14 per cent earnings yield when the
risk to earnings is to the upside. However, a leading UK sports, leisure and cycle product
provider offers exactly that. The group not only has orders for cycles stretching well into
the second half of next year, but offers potential to ramp up e-scooter sales if the UK
government approves their use on public roads. It looks a near racing certainty that they
will when trials complete next March. Trading on a PE ratio of seven and with the
directors recently declaring a 10 per cent half-year dividend hike, the investment risk is
skewed to the upside.

ICYMI: Kiran Morzaria of Cadence Minerals explains the significance of Bank Credit Committee Approval for Amapa Project:
https://audioboom.com/posts/7958073-kiran-morzaria-of-cadence-minerals-explains-the-significance-of-bank-credit-committee-approval-fo

EMH has been and continues to be a great investment.
The Amapa investment has incredible ROI with huge upside.