Member Info for esduk

Thanks GLR, great explanation. Did you check the holder list, I was only going off the percentages on the website.

Here's hoping Myles, any thoughts on what's behind the big sells?

With that big one this morning, I've got to over 10m sold in big chunks over the past five days, 10.5m if I was to try and be more specific. That's over 3% of the company. The only shareholders with that much to sell (if these are not warrants) are Stewart Newton at 3.62% and Talaxis at 21.24%. If it was Mr Newton, he would have crossed the 3% threshold, if it was Talaxis, they would have crossed the 20% threshold, so we would be due a notification either way. Looks like the MM's are playing a square book now following the big print this morning. Let's hope that this time the seller is done (time will tell).

Delayed 639k sell there from this morning at 16p, reason for the price being down early on. We must be due a notification of some sort by now, surely!

Yep, things are getting tasty! Over the last four days we've had 20m volume traded in total, which is our highest in the last six months. This is only going one way once we clear this seller.

Murdo, I can guarantee that. I was doing dummy buy and sells throughout the afternoon. We also had at least three or four people confirm on here that their trades were buys but had been listed as sells. It becomes quite clear if you look closely enough. For a lot of the afternoon the buys were in the 16.40's and the sells were in the high 16.20's, but the MM's were progressively reducing the buy price throughout the afternoon, as they have been doing here the past few days while the big seller has been offloading. It's a pattern I've seen before here and on other shares, where despite lots of buying pressure the buy price gradually drops, this tends to be a sign that there is a big background seller.

I should say that NPV goes up substantially.

For the DFS we used a 10% nominal discount rate to get to an NPV of $559m. Following our selection as a Strategic Project by the EU, if the European Investment Bank (EIB) provides half of our financing at discounted rates (I have worked with them before, this is what they do), I'll use 5% for the sake of illustration, then we can lower that cost of financing substantially, so all else equal that NPV rate goes up drastically.

Apologies Bonker, you are of course correct, I was quoting from vague memory but the discount applied to our pricing in the DFS was 27%, which would be removed when we include Pulawy. With DFS pricing our post tax NPV was $559m. So when we account for the current lower Neodymium and Praseodymium pricing, and higher Terbium and Dysprosium pricing, and remove the 27% discount that was applied to DFS figures, I think we would still have a sizeable post tax NPV at current prices. We all know that current prices won't last, one way or another, due to Chinese export restrictions, tariffs or massive increases in demand for Rare Earths from the energy transition, robotics, data centres and defence.

Today's Neodymium price is $94.90 per kg and was $210 in the DFS. The Terbium and Dysprosium prices are 20% and 45% higher than the DFS. Current Praseodymium price is half of what it was a DFS. If you're going to try and throw shade, get your numbers right... We also get an extra 20% pricing benefit from adding Pulawy.

I should clarify that I meant they make up a much bigger % of our overall revenue than they did previously. Neodymium and praseodymium still make up a relatively large majority due their relatively high volume. Until the company update the DFS figures properly we won’t know, but I’m guessing we’re still in positive NPV territory with current prices.

Any thoughts on what’s behind the big sells Myles?

I would add also that Terbium and Dysprosium prices have exploded and my calcs had them making up a much bigger chunk of our revenue when I update the DFS pricing, so I think the mine would still be economic at current prices, though with lower returns than in the DFS.

Remember that the Neodymium price is set in China, by Chinese intercompany exchange. It is not reflective of full market dynamics and can be controlled by the Chinese state. In fact it has been controlled for years to stop any ex-China production. Tariffs, Chinese export restrictions and a security of supply premium will help us secure higher prices for our product, but ideally we would have a true global exchange where we could trust the price.

The SP action is driven by one big seller, who was already in play before this news and clearly has a separate reason for selling (hopefully we’ll find out what it is). Retail buying strength on this stock has been really positive recently.

Welcome deramper number 2, great first post! Up 166% in the last year, we’re clearly really struggling. First and last reply from me.

Well there's the first of them with 550k at 16p posted just after close.

GROC and Tungsten West. I've made good money from both today, and was in GROC already in anticipation of them being designated as a strategic project. Big difference there are they are market caps of under £10m with a single asset which won't go ahead unless they get serious funding and financing support. So I would argue that the news is much more important for them in relative value terms. They also don't have a big seller on the other side looking to offload. But I think we will get our time soon and will sit comfortably in the 20's.

When I spotted the news about CRMA status before it had been noticed I thought I had the edge and sold a few other shares and chucked the proceeds in here thinking I'd be ahead of the crowd. Turns out my buy prices of between 16.35p and 16.40p four hours ago are now on offer even though the news has come out. It's a funny old game....

Yep anything in the from 16.35p upwards in the last few hours has been a buy. We've had 4.3m volume so far today and due some big late printed trades post close.

See below from the focusIR / admin about their news service being down. I agree that it's not good enough.

Don't understand the logic here...?