Member Info for esduk

Gallmat, they said the cost of the third HPMS vessel was $7m.

I should have said grant funding for the remaining $10-23m would be great.

SG, just reading one of your previous posts. The FS has been completed, Cotec said they were looking for confirmation of financing and offtake before pressing go. This effectively confirms the financing and with the Chinese export restrictions I’m sure there has been no shortage of potential offtakers. I reckon once the Tyseley plant is up and running we’ll see offtake arrangements announced and think FID will be taken in the next 3-4 months. For me this is as good as if not better than a grant of say $10-15m as it means the remaining funding requirement for Cotec is just $33m (or $20m without the contingency), $10m of which they are already raising. Grant funding for the remaining $20-33m would be great, but I’m sure that Cotec will be able to find this money from a third party investor or the market if needs be.

The Feasibility Study NPV was north of $250m, with pricing used being lower than today’s prices and with a much higher cost of financing compared to that which we will now get from EXIM. So at current RE/RE magnet prices (excluding benefits from tax credits, tariffs and security of supply premium) and with EXIM financing, I reckon you can add at least $50-100m to that NPV figure.

Don’t you just love how many strings to it’s bow this company has, announcements coming from US export bank, EU gov Will, US embassy, it’s so impressive. Alex and co must be flat out and it’s certainly paying off.

I think it will be different this time SG, this news can’t be ignored and will start attracting serious, non-PI interest. Had been thinking that Julian had been very quiet lately, with no interviews. Very much looking forward to his next one, which I’m sure will be soon. They had given mid year as the deadline to press go on the project as I mentioned yesterday.

75% gearing is fantastic, particularly with subsidised debt. Means the project finance is highly leveraged and our equity returns will be through the roof!

Awesome guys, just woke up to the LinkedIn notification from Will on my phone!

Btw Bonker, does this count as 15's for the purposes of your chart?

Yes, but remember spot prices are determined by inter-company exchange in China and don't take into account factors like tariffs or a security of supply premium, so the actual figure that we can charge our Western customers will be higher than the spot price. Then throw tax credits, grant funding and discounted financing into the mix, all of which we have either already received, or are highly likely to receive (in the US, EU and UK) and our project economics can look very compelling.

Peter, you appear to be an intelligent and articulate person, so I will give you the benefit of the doubt. You are entitled to your view and I trust that those that post on and / or read this BB can make up their own minds on the merits of your argument, I clearly disagree with your view, but will leave it at that. The good thing is that we should be finding out what the market thinks about the value of Songwe and Pulawy in the near term and if you are right and there is no SPAC / the transaction falls through, then I'll happily apologise to you...

Great post Gallmat and I agree with the concern that a prolonged supply crunch for RE/RE magnets would not have been a great long term outcome for us due to the substitution effect. From what I have read the potential substitutes have so far proved to be uneconomic or not able to achieve the same technical results, and we don't want that to change.

Peter, again with the misinformation... We were at 16p+ before there was any mention of Chinese RE magnet export restrictions and have since had some excellent unrelated news around CRMA strategic status for two of our projects amongst other things, so stop trying to pretend that the share price will fall through the floor.

We knew there was going to be some kind of détente on RE between the US and China, but as many others have said, even if this is adhered to in the long term (which is doubtful) this has exposed the major strategic weakness of the West's reliance on China for RE's and put it front and centre of the media, political, business and investment narrative.

The relationships that we have no doubt made / calls we have received across the mine, refine and recycle business from industry and financial institutions in the past few months due to the supply shortage from China and our CRMA strategic project status are likely to be a game changer for us as a company. After the Covid supply crunch major manufacturers rethought and restructured their supply chains and this is clearly going to happen for Rare Earth oxides/magnets now, and we couldn't have timed it better.

The Hydrogen vs Element1 read across was surely a pretty obvious one given Hydrogen is the first element (no.1) in the periodic table. Fantastic poster who adds loads of value.

Funds at the ready

That was such an easy money making exercise, buying the various dips with an almost certainty that you would be in the money in the run up to ASX listing. Still got a big wedge in there for the next 12 months. It's a crazy BB though, mostly stopped reading it as the few quality and really knowledgeable posts get drowned out by all the dross. So much fear and greed on show, and lots of people who shouldn't really be investing on AIM given their lack of experience (though they have luckily managed to stumble across a quality company).

All views are welcomed. But I think most would question the motivation/agenda of someone completely new to LSE and the BB turning up and quoting vastly misleading "facts" e.g. quoting today's Neodymium price at "around $48.50/kg to $49.50/kg", when it is c. $95/kg today. We've had the debate about the Songwe DFS many times over the past few years and the truth is we won't know what the economics look like for sure until it is updated. I have given lots of reasons why, combined with Pulawy, I think it is likely to have a substantial positive NPV at current prices.

The SPAC valuation is coming shortly, so we will find out what the market thinks. I am confident that it will be well north of current SP, but that's just my view. Peter is entitled to his, he just needs to play with a straight bat and not post selective and misleading figures.

Peter, I'm very relaxed today, looking forward to a BBQ and a beer later in the sunshine, thanks for the advice. Will be using some GGP profits (thanks again Bonker) to top up here if we drop any further.

We've had 198k buys vs 317k sells so far, so a clear example of MM's dropping the bid lots on minimal net selling. Compare this to yesterday with 868k buys vs 453k sells and a flat share price.

I thought you had “made your point” and were done commenting. I don’t think your post needs a retort as I think everyone can see how far off the mark you are and what your agenda is.

You can make that 453k sells with that late reported one. It certainly doesn’t feel the same as when we had that big block seller, but more like the period before that where the SP did seem to be held in range. If so, there are plenty of near term SP catalysts to come that can bust us out of said range.

Hard to answer that definitively, but we had 868k buys vs 353k sells and finished even.