Member Info for esduk

Yep, while the buying on L2 is showing up 30 minutes delayed, I can see there is plenty of it and we have 40p back on the bid. Let's end the week strong and hopefully end the month strong too, with a nice juicy SEC approval RNS in the next two weeks.

Biffa posted the SEDAR filing at the time (on 27th March), so it's info that we've already discussed. Think Floyd was just providing the link to the filing I mentioned in my post earlier to prove its authenticity for those who were doubting the listing. But yes, the conclusion is that we should be getting SEC approval in the next 2-3 weeks, followed by a circular and a vote. Not sure we necessarily get a direct vote as Mkango shareholders (as the merger is of MKAR and CPTK, not Mkango and CPTK) but the CPTK shareholders definitely do. I've asked AI about this but I've had mixed responses, would be to understand this point if anyone has any further info. If we get further progress with the ceasefire and a potential end of the war, the listing could be happening at just the right time for us.

Back to 40p, showing some signs of life. Although I can't say the same for LSE whose live prices are once again delayed...

Donald will always time his announcements perfectly for the US market open, so we should always get at least 2 hours of benefit.

Good to see us getting a bump on the news that the straights are open. Now time to recover 50p, where we were before all this carp kicked off, and pre-DFS!

Straights of Hormuz open for the remainder of the ceasefire according to Iran's foreign minister. Would like to see a bounce here from this news given the impact the Iran war initially had on our SP.

Full ask being paid now so hopefully a move back into the 40’s is on the cards.

The trade was at yesterday’s closing mid price of 39.5p, so I don’t think it was a normal buy or sell. We had a UT at 40p in yesterday’s closing auction, so we’re currently trading even for the day, despite being reported as down 1.25%.

*now

All my top ups are done now, 10% reached. You can let the SP run know MM's... ; )

Think the Australians over on ASX are currently letting us down. Seems to be more appetite for shares over here on AIM, but we opened up this morning substantially down to reflect the closing price on ASX, which didn't catch up with where we closed here yesterday. Has presented me with an opportunity to buy more under 40p so I'm happy, but longer term would be good for the ASX to be driving the price here.

I'll bite. The MKAR Nasdaq listing is likely to be early June, c. 7 weeks away. We are awaiting SEC approval and once we have this CPTK need to give 20 days notice to shareholders, before CPTK shareholders vote and Mkango (as sole shareholder of MKAR) votes on the SPAC merger. So the merger IM would be distributed to CPTK shareholders 20 before any vote, and the listing itself and associated PIPE financing would likely follow within a few days of the vote.

Mkango have organised an Annual General and Special Meeting for 5th June for them to give their approval to the SPAC merger as per the SEDAR filing on 27th March 2026. They could of course move this, but my thinking is they have organised it for this date because they are confident that they will have the necessary approval from the SEC by the end of April / start of May. The fact that they released the updated Songwe DFS numbers and the Pulawy PFS suggests that the SEC were comfortable with the assumptions being used in them and that approval was now a matter of dotting i's and crossing t's.

So, in summary, the MKAR Nasdaq listing is very much on, and it should transform the SP here.

Yeh saw this last night as I tune in to his Q&A's every week when he does them. Going to take advantage of the pull back today to build my position up to 10% of my portfolio. 10x over 5 years is good enough for me, and I think that is understated, as I don't think he has incorporated the heavy rare earths into his valuation thinking yet.

Good luck with the pre-op velcro, and hopefully they book you in shortly after that.

IBABFO2, I make it £234m post tax FCF at current exchange rates if we apply the 30% corporate tax rate which has been agreed with Mkango for their Songwe project, so nearly the full market cap in one year's post tax FCF.

Agree that 20% is probably too much of a discount from pre-tax to post tax given that we probably won't pay any/much tax for first years of operations, but even using that figure, we are severely undervalued right now.

Think the placing shares have mostly already been flipped. Volume back to normal today so looks like one or two smaller players still want to offload a few shares for a profit and while there are buyers about, there's not the same demand as we've had over the past couple of weeks.

Hey velcro, was wondering whether we may hear from you today given the DFS was published. Hope you're doing ok and that the eyes are getting sorted? You've been missed on the boards. Yeh, my thoughts exactly. Patience is all that is required here and I am glad of the opportunity to buy more at 40p and below, which I have taken advantage of today. Upped my portfolio allocation to 8%, targeting 10%.

In saying all of that, I note that we are using a pre-tax NPV so, we would have to take that into account, which there is no simple way of doing given that we haven't agreed a tax rate with Malawi and even if we did have the corporation tax rea (Mkango agreed 30% in their MDA), it's not as simple as reducing the NPV by 30% given the timing of the cashflows and the application of tax losses brought forward from the pre-operations period. As a guesstimate, I'd say the movement from pre to post tax NPV is likely somewhere in the region of 15-20%.

Taking the more conservative 20% figure I get to a post tax NPV of $1.76bn. Based on this our current market cap is just under 15% of post tax NPV. To get to the mark of 30% of NPV used in my previous post, the SP would have to increase by 104% from where it is right now.

Thanks mate. I make it that we are still priced at 12% of NPV today. So, a long way to go to get to 30% of NPV (152% rise from current SP), which itself will still undervalue us based on the Heavy Rare Earths to be added at pretty much no cost. Even if we were to look at a more conservative 20-25% of NPV to take into account jurisdiction risk, the SP would have to rise 68-110%.

I would argue that despite our jurisdiction risk, the quality of the DFS/BFS (with Rio and IDFC involved), critical nature of the minerals we are mining (particularly for Western supply chains), US/Japanese government and IDFC support and tier 1 nature of the asset (including mine life), mean that we should be above 30% of NPV.

The market is asleep big time, though the SP has picked up a bit since US trading started. Time to fill your boots!

Yeh, it's the size of the titanium and flake graphite markets that restricts production volume here, not the size of the resource which is massive, and therefore the mine life could be up to 100 years, as Saipan mentioned in an interview.

Haha, sorry my bad. That's my Irishness subconsciously taking over while writing a quick post, I know Shaun Day's name. As someone with an Gaelic Irish spelling of my name, which people get wrong 80%+ of the time, I should do better!