Member Info for esduk

That’s the one velcro

Yeh, excellent comparative analysis Myles, thank you. Value disconnect here is unbelievable, and one way or another the management team and Board at Mkango will make sure the valuation gap is closed, whether that requires a move off AIM who knows. Patience is all that is required.

All the other RE stocks have responded really well to the MP and DoD deal news and the reason is explained in a Reuters article today “This benchmark is now a new centre of gravity in the industry that will pull prices up," said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of consultancy Adamas Intelligence.

Our SP hasn’t responded (yet) due to background shenanigans and some profit taking, but it will in time. We are on to a complete winner. Our time will come.

Two nice big delayed buys popped up after close for 200k and 189k. Add the other 100k+ buys and that's nearly 800k picked up in 100k+ buys today. Someone is taking advantage of being down here. Buys marginally outweighed sells today and we are 6% down. We've been here before. We know what happened afterwards. Patience is all that is required imo.

China’s rare earth magnet exports COLLAPSED:

Total shipments FELL 76% YoY in May, to 1,238 tons, the least since February 2020.

Exports to the US FELL 92% YoY to 46 tons, and LESS than 1/10 of what was recorded in March.

Source: Global Markets Investors

Definitely not due to an impending expiry silver as the warrants were only issued in September last year, with a three year expiry. The mystery around the big seller has been with us for seven weeks now, and we're no closer to knowing the truth.

Looking at how confident Will looked in his interview last week (unusual for him), it didn't strike me that he had any concerns, and I'm basing my own confidence and conviction to average up on what the company is telling us and the excellent macro environment, not random share price behaviour, which is open to market/trader whims and potential manipulation.

Yep, no-one can say for sure until the company update the DFS / make it a joint DFS with Pulawy but my calcs suggest that our joint Songwe and Pulawy operations are likely to be profitable at current prices (which are much higher for Dysprosium and Terbium), particularly when you take into account the premium that is currently being paid for Western production. Add to that subsidised financing (e.g. from EIB) and tax breaks from the Polish special economic zone and the picture will only improve. Grant funding or a floor price for our production would imo take us above 2022 DFS numbers.

200k buy just gone through there at 26p...

An awful lot of smoke and mirrors with all the delayed trades and the bid often being dropped on no reported trades. I am staying relaxed, and patient, as I wait for whatever is happening in the background to play out. And buying more of course. Long and strong.

Yep, but they still use chemicals and reagents to do this so their process is more energy intensive and likely much more expensive than Mkango’s. We have the HPMS IP (based on $100m of R&D) that gives us a strong competitive advantage over other recycling businesses.

Yep a few of us have decent Cotec holdings and have discussed the relative merits of Mkango and Cotec on this board before. But, like flundra my Cotec holding is a lot smaller than my Mkango holding, reflecting the fact that Mkango have 40% non-dilutable free carry to production on US recycling plant, 80% of the non-US/global recycling business and now an indicative valuation of $400m on our Songwe and Pulawy assets.

Cotec have five major technology investments, of which Hypromag is by far the biggest and most advanced. So yes I like Cotec and it gives exposure to other areas in relation to mining technology (including iron, copper and manganese), but there is plenty of development for them to do on these before they are fully proven. I do think they will do well though, and am up over 50% on my holding there.

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryan-castilloux_our-managing-director-ryan-castilloux-joined-activity-7349471731427790848-MN1E?utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAACbW318B5SROCrBo8_YGOn-KXbgaEGlJ0ow&utm_source=social_share_send&utm_campaign=copy_link

Not sure whether the link will work but this is Ryan Castilloux, founder of Adams’s Intelligence, talking on CNN about the importance of the MP And DoD deal.

When asked whether the floor price would leave US tax payers on the hook he suggested this is unlikely as he thinks the government will develop a tariff regime for non-US supply that means the price achieved by MP is at or above the floor price.

He also says he thinks this floor price provides a benchmark for non-China NdPr production (for the first time), and will be something for others to target. All very positive for us.

Tbf, having discussed / debated a number of points with you over past few years LWHL, I know your style and general (some would say healthy) scepticism and I didn't take your post as a de-ramp. Those who haven't seen as much of your posting history may not have this context. Your views are welcome, from my perspective at least, although I would question the validity of the comparison with Harland and Wolff and perhaps the cryptic nature of the original post didn't help. Anyway, let's try and keep it civilised, we have done pretty well do date in that regard. Good luck with your next investment, and hope to see you back in here (at a higher SP I should add) in future.

Seeing lots of Green Boxes...

Our UK plant is operational so I don't see any further UK government support (most of Tyseley has been funded from government grants), other than perhaps matched funding for or a contribution to any scale up.

The EU on the other hand have designated Pulawy and Songwe as Strategic Projects and I think yesterday's MP deal has shown them the kind of intervention that is necessary if they really want to support Critical Minerals supply chains in Europe / ex-China. I expect that we will be talking to the EIB about subsidised financing (as well as development banks), and other EU funding agencies about grants.

For Pulawy I expect we will be talking to the Polish government at central and municipal level about grants, noting we already get tax breaks by being located in a Special Economic Zone. One of the other projects on the CRMA list (jointly owned by European Metal Holdings) got $36m from the EU Just Transition Fund in April for their Lithium project in Czech Republic, with support from the Czech government. Not saying it will happen, just that the chances of it happening are a lot higher today than they were just 4 months ago.

Fair points to be cautious as there are no guarantees here LWHL, but you have already stated that you've sold, so have voted with your feet so to speak. If we had guaranteed US or EU government support i.e. a signed contract or funding agreement, we would not be trading at 28p, we'd be in the £'s. So it's all about risk/reward. The US markets will value MKAR properly, and I think yesterday's news on MP will make that valuation stronger given the US Government and DoD have clearly shown their intent on non-China supply chains, putting pressure on the EU to follow suit.

Nothing is ever simple on AIM I'm afraid Terry. Another small top up from me at 28p. While it's down here I will continue to take advantage. Regardless of what's presently going on with the MM's in the background, I have complete conviction in the business and believe the second rerate will come, whether next week, next month or later in the year. The second rerate will no doubt be followed by many others!

Yep, all a bit predictable, can sell 300k above bid.

Thanks for the thorough analysis GLR. To note, I wouldn't discount the rest of the basket by 60% as Dysprosium and Terbium are well above their values at the time of the DFS/DFS assumptions (approx. 45% and 20% above respectively by my calcs) and they made up by far the biggest share of the 'rest of MREC' price in the DFS (Dy/T combined = 11.4% of total MREC value, other elements make up 5% of total MREC calue), so I would actually argue that the rest of 'MREC' price should increase, or if you are being very conservative then remain as it was in the DFS.

If we use the conservative assumption which doesn't reflect the increase in Dy/T prices, back solving I think we get 29kg sales price for our production. If we use current figures for Dysprosium and Terbium we are looking more like $31-32kg.

As you mention, a 27% discount was applied to the DFS MREC pricing assumptions as they didn't reflect the separation of the oxides in Pulawy. The DFS also used a discount rate of 10%, whereas imo we are likely to get a subsidised loan from EIB, EXIM or US gov't which will be at a much lower rate e.g. 5%, which would massively increase the RoE. All very positive for the NPV and equity IRR.

Nice! My top ups in 27/28’s yesterday. Will continue rotating into this if they keep the SP at these levels.

Y’all Bonker? I hope you will at least be doing your fair bit to help us break 29.5p!? ; )