RE: Late to the party29 Jul 2025 11:45
Hi Westhamtim. There are so many things you could read and should read, but in the first instance I would suggest searching for M.McNulty in the Members tab and reading through Myles comparative value analysis for both the mine/refine and the recycling parts of the business. He doesn't post that often, but his posts cover all the bases and are perhaps the easiest way to get up to speed when it comes to valuing Mkango. You can also follow his posts on X.
In terms of reasons for our MCAP not reflecting our intrinsic value, there are potentially many:
- We are on AIM, and until recently were under £100m MCAP, which means we haven't, to date, attracted further large scale investment from institutional investors. Although it's worth noting that Vitol, a major global energy and commodities trading company with revenues over $8bn, own over 20% (through Talaxis) and we do have at least one specialist fund invested currently
- UK markets don't value companies (particularly pre-revenue companies) properly, which is why UK companies are listing in the US, getting taken private or bought by US companies
- We have had some profit taking and warrants converted in the 30's. Both are healthy for future SP moves
- People don't yet believe the $400m valuation for Mkango's share of the new SPAC listed entity, despite Cohen and Co's exemplary track record, the EU support for both projects, the MP deal and the comparative valuations with US listed rare earth companies. When the $400m value is proven on the NASDAQ it will be a lot harder for AIM/institutional investors to ignore
- The recycling business, which everyone here agrees is much more valuable than the provisionally $400m valued mining/refining business, is still pre-revenue in most peoples' minds, though we have this month started commercial operations in the UK and will do so in Germany later this year. Some people may be waiting for proof of successful scale up before jumping in
- Cotec have yet to announce the go ahead on the US plant, though this decision should be imminent as was trailed for mid year. We have a Letter of Intent from the US EXIM bank for low cost debt financing for 70% of the project
I'm sure others can add to the list. Imo this is a classic example of value and price disconnect, and I have been taking advantage. If the company's market cap doesn't start reflecting its intrinsic value then it will either get bought out, or the management will list it in the US. I am targeting a minimum of £1.50 within the next 12 months, after successful listing of Songwe/Pulawy on NASDAQ by year end, commercial operations in Germany this year, Final Investment Decision for our Hypromag USA plant this year (including EXIM financing), announcement of Hypromag projects in Japan (and maybe Canada and South Korea) and expansion of our UK plant. This is not to mention deals with US and EU governments and deals with corporates, all of which have a pretty high chance of happening in the near fu
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