Member Info for esduk

Market view is that Powell's Jackson Hole speech was relatively dovish, and opened the door to September rates cuts. Lowering US interest rates is good for POG.

BANGKOK (AP) — China released new interim measures Friday tightening controls on mining and processing of rare earths that are used in many high-tech products including electric vehicles, smartphones and fighter jets.

The rules released Friday by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology apply both to rare earths originating in China and those that are sent to China for refining.

They require companies to comply with quotas for various minerals. Companies must have government approval to deal with rare earths and must accurately report the amount of rare earths products being handled. Violators will face legal penalties and also have their quotas for rare earths reduced.

The rules released Friday spell out tighter controls on licensing of companies dealing in rare earths and centralize controls on mining, exports and processing. They also impose more stringent environmental standards for the industry.

Nice delayed reported 250k buy showed up from 4.08pm yesterday at 40p. Big buyers are out there, and taking advantage.

Yes Monteacute, it seems we may have gone from zero straight to hero in our stock picks, in my case thanks to a simple post on the WSG BB. All my AIM losses have been covered and then some by this share.

I also learned the lesson not to advise family and friends about stocks after putting both my best mate and my father-in-law onto WSG. Now any losses are my own (apart from those invested on behalf of my wife, daughter and nephew...), which helps me sleep a lot better at night. My friends and family know about rare earths and that I have been into them/invested in a share for over 9 years, but I've never told them which one, despite many asking.

AIM is not for everyone (or indeed for most people) and if you're invested in it imo you need to be actively doing your own research and closely following company and market developments. Having a BB like this is an absolute godsend. People investing without putting in that work or having that community are at a massive disadvantage.

Btw, can sell 325k/£133k above bid.

Tuck, after years invested in WSG I got out back in 2021 at a decent size loss, though not as bad as it could have been if I hadn't traded it well. It taught me some valuable lessons about investing on AIM and is one of the reasons I had so much conviction in my Mkango holding.

Unlike WSG, Mkango management have always done everything they can to avoid diluting their shareholders, finding grant funding and partnerships, doing clever deals to avoid equity raises, taking salaries in shares, etc. Mkango management don't over promote and over promise (jam tomorrow) just to get an equity raise away to pay for another year of their and their family's ridiculously high salaries. Will Dawes is the absolute opposite of Peter Fowler and that was one of the main reasons that I kept trusting in him and Mkango when we dropped to high 2p's in 2020 and then again 4.5p a year ago, and increased my holdings substantially on both occasions.

Sorry to spoil your day Jimzi, but hopefully our usual Friday fun-day here can cheer you back up!

yeh tuck, what a dog of a share in the end, but it had a great community at one point before **** turned ugly. i think someone else said that stephenfryup recommended this one to them as well. we owe him a beer!

As I see it we are consolidating in this new range between 39p and 46p, while technicals cool off. 14 day RSI has now dropped to 58%, having been in the high 70’s / overbought territory when we got up to the 46p’s. We’ve now got plenty of RSI headroom for a move higher. We have tested and bounced off 39/39.5p twice now which should strengthen that support line (which was previously resistance).

My most likely scenario is that we trade in this range until next news (could be company news / could be market news). We’ve had a big seller the last couple of days, and if they are done for the time being then I see a break of resistance (potentially on anticipation of news) as the next most likely scenario ahead of a break of support. Let’s see how it plays out, news will arrive soon to set the direction and in the meantime I will be throwing more money in at 39/40p and below if that ever comes again.

July 2018 is impressive, but from the comments I’ve read it probably doesn’t make the top 10 on this board. A lot of watchers/LTH have introduced themselves for the first time in the last couple of months which shows that for every person posting and holding a large amount of shares, there are a many more who just read the board. I’ve personally been in since a few days after AIM listing in June 2016. Was a holder over at WSG (as was Jimzi I recall) and StephenFryUp mentioned a new AIM listing that people should check out. What a recommendation that was, it may just have changed my life.

SP looking good today.

I copied the text and searched but couldn’t find it anywhere. I hope it’s not one of those AI ‘may happen’ statements?

We need sources included when posting something in quotation marks, particularly something so significant. If it is from an actual source it would blow the lid off, but we need the proof.

Well there you go, the trades that make sense of today’s price action. Sells of 246k and 480k at 1.15pm and 1.25pm. Add to that some more 50k sells that caused the second drop of the day around the time of the RNS. I did say earlier that we’d need a big sell of over 500k reported later to justify the drop of 5%+ and today we got it in the end.

Bid strengthened on L2 into close there. Would be interesting to understand how much/if any of today's price action was a result of that RNS being logged. I guess we may see later, if there aren't a lot of large delayed sells, then perhaps the drop was influenced by it.

I'm not worried about him having sold 1.8m shares at some point in the last 6 months. That is natural given how far we have come since 4.5p a year ago and 3p when he probably bought in way back when. He's still holding £4m's worth and is not currently selling based on the classification of the RNS.

Yeh Magic, my thoughts at the time were that it may be Stewart Newton or Michael Geoghegan, looks like it was probably Stewart as we got Michael's recent TR-1 showed him with the same number of shares as his previous one.

So while the warrant exercise changing overall voting rights was the reason he crossed the 3% threshold, he has clearly sold 1.8m shares at some point in the last 6 months. Doesn't mean any of this is more recent, as the holdings RNS would have said the reason he crossed the threshold was due to disposal of shares if that was the case.

Yeh he had 11.8m in February RNS and 10m per today's RNS.

Yeh I'm confused by the RNS, doesn't say it's related to him selling, but can't make sense of the numbers. Surely you don't drop from 3.62% to 2.98% due to c.9m in warrants being issued? Can anyone make sense of it?

Have continued topping up to W.O.S. We filled the gap and tested old resistance as new support last week at 39.5p, so let's see what happens this time.

I think the main point is that right now we have a figure of $400m out in the market for an indicative value of our share of the mine/refining business, which most people would say should travel northwards based on Neodymium prices being up over 40% since the valuation. But the market will tell us soon enough what that business is worth.

We don't have such a figure for our recycling business. But given that it is modular and our partner Cotec have talked about 6-10 plants in the US alone, at roughly $600m NPV per plant (on pretty conservative assumptions overall), of which we get 40%, and don't have to provide any funding for, then you can see the attraction. That's just for the US! Search through my posts from a few days ago and you'll find some back of the f*g packet calcs on the recycling business, but suffice to say that the potential there is in the billions, whereas the mine and refine business won't have the same potential for exponential value increases (over the $400m that is, which is still more than double our current MCAP...).

A large majority of holders are of the view that the recycling side of the business is by far the more attractive opportunity here. Have a look at Myles McNulty's posts on X to get an idea of potential valuations for it.

The Songwe mine and Pulawy refining plant are being spun out and SPAC listed on the NASDAQ as MKAR, with our holding of the new company indicatively valued at $400m. That was at the end of June, before the MP Material / US Department of Defence deal was announced and put a rocket up Neodymium (the mine's main product) prices, which are up over 40% since that valuation was done. So many are expecting our share to have gained in value. We will see come listing time, which is targeted before the end of the year, most likely November or early December based on precedent transactions. In terms of timeframes for the mine, we are one of only a few rare earth projects globally to have a DFS, completed permitting and signed a Mining Development Agreement with the government. So if we raise the financing through a combination of NASDAQ pipe financing and bank debt (we are backed as a strategic project by the EU so will likely have access to EBRD funds) it could be operational in a couple of years.

Magic, I've listened to interviews and read blogs by those who used to be market makers. It depends what you define as games. They take advantage of fear and greed, that is their job. They are prone to dropping bids to cause panic, when in fact it is NT to buy. They have done this so many times on this share that you can't fail to spot it. Sometimes they will be caught short and will use smoke and mirrors to get the shares they need back. They sometimes need to fill a big buy order for an important client and will also employ tactics to get the best price they can. Looks like Monday morning was an example of this. So is there a massive conspiracy, most probably not. But do MM's engage in games/nefarious tactics to make themselves and their clients more money, of course they do.