Member Info for ericnat17

Hi Part

I have had this conversation with "the company" and he has confirmed that the total revenue for the Host is expected to be north of $120 million

I suggest that is a very conservative figure

I would suggest that you look again, you are talking about the first 30mmscf guaranteed, what about the other 36mmscfs?

"The MOU includes a fixed unitary price for a minimum annual volume of 0.3 bcm per annum (approximately 29.0 MMscf/d or 10.13 MMbtu per annum), which will, once implemented, result in first year gross revenues attributable to the Tendrara concession (100%) of US$84 million. "

At Brent at $70 dollars a barrel, we will get $8.5 a scf. If the production rate at Horst is 66MScf/day thats 8.5 X 66000 = $561k per Day.

I would take 17p

The private company is paying over $170 million for their 24% of Eastern Morocco to get to first Gas.

A simple read over gives us approx 13pps for our 23% and then I would take 4 p for the upside, SIdi and goodwill.

JP has confirmed that we are carried until first gas. The $58 million is also a cap. The total Capex for the Drills, CPF and Pipeline is $250 million.
It appears from communications that the new operator will not be using the BOOT to build the pipeline.
This must have gone through ONHYM and SLB. They have pockets deep enough to pay their portion of the capex.
Of course the Private company maybe buying SLB percentage as well.

the GSA and the FID must be almost there.

In hindsight I think it would have been best to be kept in the dark about this deal, until it was ready for a vote.

The deal is not fully formed and therefore provides the markets biggest issue which is uncertainty. My belief is the JV will be listed and sound will distribute shares. In a similar way as the Coro allocation.
Newco will be the vehicle for Sidi and sound will distribute shares in that also.
Just a guess but after various communications this seems the direction of travel.

don't make me Cry GekkoSnr

Just as likely

1 million buy order just below the bid, some one is keen. I wonder who it is, maybe the KING

well at least that started some buying

collapsed 13 v 37

Just when it looked to be getting better

that scenario crossed my mind, as soon as the deal is signed we will who the company is but will we know who owns it?

Looking at the transaction metrics this is a read across 19p deal on an enterprise value basis… split roughly 4p upfront cash, 4p of carry with the P50 value of the remaining 23.3%, according to the brokers, valued at circa NPV 10 of 11.3p which gives a total read through of around 19.3p from which you would have to deduct the around 2p of debt to get to a read through equity price of above 17p. Furthermore this figure is before any exploration upside which is substantial given the huge basin potential and the near term drill ready prospects, which presumably are one of the main upside attractions for the prospective buyers. This looks like an interesting result for Sound shareholders, who whilst disappointed with some of the recent drilling results now get early monetisation of the Eastern Morocco portfolio, a line to funded first gas as well as possible substantial exploration upside. This is validated by the substantial interest in the assets for sale and the huge size and range of those expressing an interest.

are you still invested Trellis? I would guess no. You are the lucky one!

a yearly dividend of 1-2p is very likely just from the gas sales from the horst - the range is base on 23 % or 14% retained interest. we could get 2p a year for 15years. equates to an excellent return.

a value of 20 p with a 1p dividend is about right. 5%

but we may get a 2p div
the deal is not as bad as some people believe.

My Guess is we are going to have synthetic interests in both Eastern and Sidi. both will be carried. no need for CFO, no need for BM and no need for JP.

The share will pay a dividend every year. Currently with a quick calculation that is anywhere between 1.5 - 2p per share. that's every year for I would guess at least 15years.

This is the LE, long drawn out but is better than any annuity.

600k buy order just below the bid.

should supply support.

With a carry, now is on the cards

Sorry PNE that’s not correct

The Carry part of the deal covers the pipeline wells and CPF for. I have had that confirmed today by email from JP.

We get 25% of approx £120 million PA of revenue from the Horst. Are you suggesting that we are spending £30 million on keeping the lights on, weird.

We