Member Info for epiphany121

Assuming that AS gets there on the 16th and if we work backwards to when load #35 was completed by HK on 19/04 at 20:00, that's circa 26.5 days for 2 loads, and so, AK is still tracking at 40 kbopd, inspite of GK's cock-up on the first pass on load #36. ;-)

Interesting, but good to note that Amundsen S is on her way to Kraken just now from Rotterdam. The ETA, I believe incorrectly set to the 19th, as AS should be able to get there in 36 hours time, i.e. on the 16th. We'll know for sure tomorrow.

I was expecting NH to make the short trip from Scapa to AK, but not to be by the looks of it.

thh, fair enough. It was the 'contamination' news from last year. However, the majority of crude grades in the SPR is still light grade though.

Heardy - it's completely incorrect to state that WTI/WTL is high sulphur crude, It's light to very light grade crude with pretty low Sulphur content. It's ideal for making Gasoline/Petrol, just not Diesel/Jet Fuel. Also, many US gulf coast refineries are not setup to handle light crude and hence will need to mix them with imported heavy grades before they can refine them into products.

There are plenty of buyers in Asia for this type of crude, obviously shipping costs are high and hence the high differentials with Brent comes into play as it levels the price playing field for these buyers.

Only from the EIA stats tomorrow, P.

What this will do is to blow out WTI - Brent differentials more - it'll nice to see these differentials in the $12 to $13 range - there will be lesser and lesser incentive for the shale drillers to invest more at these levels. As it is, the Permian based Small/Medium drillers are realising about 90% of WTI, before any hedges and that's total shiite for them.

2 Permian drillers that I know (HK and AREX) are practically bankrupt with negative net cash flow over the past 12 months and their SP is down 90% to 95% from the summer last year and teetering on the edge of chapter 11 proceedings. This is why I wouldn't mind WTI sell of more relative to Brent.

As I said this morning, there was disruption in the Houston shipping channel on the 10th and that must've been part of the reason for this build. Let's see what the EIA says tomorrow and what happens with the production and export stats.Exports must've been curtailed too.

Horrendously bearish numbers with builds all around.

API

Crude +8.6mm (-1.3mm exp)

Cushing +2.1mm (+1.3mm exp)

Gasoline +567k (-300k exp)

Distillates +2.2mm (-1.0mm exp)

So, it's a build. I don't have the numbers yet, just the headline. I suspect it'll be a large build in the IA report tomorrow.

There's also Minerva Maya arriving at Scapa on the 16th, and that could also be our next crude tanker. ;-)

Auson - Lol..;-)

Chilts pointed out that Elias Tsakos, the crude oil tanker is headed to Scapa and that's a good candidate to hook with the next Shuttle tanker. I'm still hoping that's Navion Hispania also currently anchored in Scapa, and hopefully move towards AK, either today or tomorrow (more likely now).

Nice that Brent has bounced today and let's hope for some positive trade news now..; -)

Whilst I may not agree with the initial tone of DK's post, the content around Iran and they're not a 'cancer' as you Hasiba wrote, is something I fully agree. Your commentary is what gets fed to the likes of numpty's base and gets snapped up wholesale. I guess I shouldn't be surprised to see more people buy into the BS espoused by the current US government.

It's a 50-50 call if there'll be a draw tonight/tomorrow - tomorrow being key, even if there's a draw tonight, as API had a build the last time and EIA had a draw. There was a collision in the Houston shipping channel last week and that certainly prevented oil tankers from moving about freely.

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2019/5/13/houston-ship-channel-reopens-after-crash-polluted-air-and-water

And good old FS Cygnus has paid her respects to AK today and left a couple of hours ago - this typically precedes an upcoming load. Fingers crossed.

If NH moves in the next day or so, it's then a confirmation that the F**kup with the last load was because of GK...

I'd been counting on NH as well, Chilting. If NH gets there on Wednesday morning - leave Scapa tomorrow, then the 40kbopd rate is still looking good.

GL...

I'm not mincing my words when i say that the trade war we're seeing now is utterly negative for Brent. If one is positively minded on Brent, they may think that it won't matter, but it does and it will.

If this trade war continues or escalates to the US increasing tariffs on the remaining $325 billion in imports, expect Brent to be in the or below the 50s, once reality hits and a global recession kicks in, either in H2 2019 or 2020 if the escalated scenario pans out.

Auson - this is probably an opening gambit as they've only put tariffs out on select products, including LNG. Crude oil is still off the list and that'll cause some pains for WTI, as a newer market may require more discounts. But, a trade war is never good keeping in mind the overall negative consequences for the global economy and oil, as a result.

We know the trade deficit was $379 bill in 2018 and China will then resort to additional measures outside tariffs to try and get even. I'm not kidding when I say that these actions have a clear potential to push the global economy into a recession, unless another 2000 points fall in DOW over the next few days and Numpty decides that he's had enough.

GLA..

But for the geo-political headlines around the sabotaging of SA tankers and the Iran sanctions, on a day like today, Brent should be down 2 to 3 bucks, and not up a buck, as it is at this time.

China has retaliated with more tariffs and this doesn't look good, I'm afraid. I'm worried for Brent and where we'll end up with oil. Here's an additional take/clarity from Larry Kudlow around why Tariffs are bad for the US consumers, something that the porkies-in-chief would never admit to his base,

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-12/bombshell-kudlow-undercuts-trump-admits-american-consumers-are-paying-china-tariffs

Romaron and Hitman are going, from what I know. KO - Maybe you are? I have my invite to the AGM (happy to post a screenshot to show I'm not fibbing ;-). Lol), but I have a business trip that day and I'm trying my best to see if I can duck out somehow!!!

I want to believe oil price articles, but they rarely seem to get it right though.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-About-To-Go-Bust.html

I can't see why you lot are so gullible as to believe that slippery squid actually holds any shares in Enq. That event carries an even higher bollocks factor than Numpty settling with China in the next couple of weeks. Lol...