Member Info for epiphany121

You won't get an answer to the 60p question from the management. ;-)

Brent and Kraken - 2 key drivers - and if they co-operate, we may get the 60p in H2 2020 ..We're a long way away from there, IMO

Ahh, right. That may make it a bit more easier. I hear you only see 7 footer, hulky types in there - I have a better chance of finding you in that disguise.

KO - I'll no doubt keep my eyes open for a person fitting that description. There can't be too many of them like you in that room, surely?

Agreed, Hitman. We should be well over £500 mill market cap, but it's down to reasons you've captured in your note. 2020 should be true breakout year, IMO. If we don;t get a trade induced recession, that is.

Good luck..

Thanks, Hitman and Romaron. I'm sure we'll find a way of meeting up tomorrow. See you then..

If anyone else is also coming along, do let us know..

Morning Romaron/Hitman,

With yourselves being the AGM veterans, what time do you typically get there? I believe the AGM starts at 2:30 PM - do you get there a touch sooner and do you interact with the management before or after the actual meeting? Or both?

My roadblocks for tomorrow are clearing up and there's a good chance I'll be there tomorrow.

Best

Nice indeed, Chilts.

Pelle - hindsight is always great, but your contemplated trade on Monday would've worked out very well indeed.

A few corrections to your numbers, Svensson. The average production at Kraken for the first 2 months was 26.3 kbopd and not 23 kbopd. Production only started to better at nearly the end of March, as you've stated. And I wouldn't be extrapolating 45kbopd as a constant production rate. Kraken's hit that rate, but even in May, we have seen some challenges. Bottom line, I wouldn't be getting carried away with wildly optimistic production numbers, given there is a maintenance shutdown coming up for AK, but hopefully production can hold around the 40 kbopd after this maintenance is complete. CNE has stated as much that Equipment could be the bottleneck now, with the reservoir concerns not figuring in their recent update.

I'd like the management to narrow the production guidance range, but they may choose to wait a couple of months after the AK maintenance to confirm this with some degree of certainty.

Best

Higher differentials between WTI and Brent beckons...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Oil-Production-Set-To-Grow-16-This-Year.html

Malaysia differential is not because of quality, but because of the Production share agreement (PSA) with Petronas. ENQ gets revenues on circa 60-65% of oil produced in Malaysia.

Svensk - Numbers are mostly incorrect and I wouldn't give them much credibility..

1. what ENQ produces is not 100%, but there's gas too. 78kbopd from April onwards is complete fantasy
2. ENQ doesn't get 100% Brent as revenues because of Malaysia PSA. In my model, I've assumed at circa 92% realisation, which may be a bit conservative/low side.
3. Magnus contribution to BP for 2019 is way overstated. That should be circa $50Mill
4. Interest is over-stated

There are way too many holes and is not credible.

Best

SFA = Secured Financial Agreement. Otherwise known as the Revolving Credit Facility (RCF). In the Magnus prospectus document, the RCF is always referred to as the SFA.

Hitman - Certainly a new acquisition that'll need additional contribution from shareholders shouldn't be and won't be, IMO, on the cards for 2019 and maybe till at least the end of 2020. De-leveraging is king and I absolutely won't support any additional acquisitions that'll need cash infusions (not that my opinion or wallet matters much..LOL).

I can see what debt burdens are doing to the SP of shale drillers over in the US with WTI in the low 60s and shale patches pricing running a few bucks lower. They just can't generate any FCF as their capexes are still way too high, if only to sustain existing levels of production or grow very marginally - so, debt is still growing and Wall Street doesn't like these drillers. We're in a much, much better place at this time and hence, deleveraging is of utmost importance.

All of the points you make below around bond redemptions are spot on. I'd much rather they clear up the RCF/SFA term loans first and prior to October 2021, as that's possible. The balance will be down to $580 mill at the end of October 2019, with the $100 mill repayment on that date. And as we know, until we get the SFA down to below $500 mill, any kind of Distribution (read dividends) aren't allowed in the first place, although this isn't a concern for me till at least end of 2020. ENQ's focus should be on fully repaying the RCF by 2021, and if Brent's at circa $70, that shouldn't be a problem.

Thursday, on the AGM day.

Hi Romaron,

The biggest threat to the world economy is now the official trade war with China that Donnie has initiated and even though his key advisers like Kudlow, know is a disaster for the US, there are no signs of the US pushing back and China is now not backing off either. This is the biggest issue that the oil market has to deal with.

I don't trust the Republicans with anything around Middle-east foreign policy. When you have war-mongerers like Bolton, baying for Iran's blood all the time, this isn't a surprise. Even Donnie admitted that if it was all up to Bolton, they'd be fighting multiple wars in the middle-east. I just hope cooler heads prevail and a peaceful resolution is arrived at. We don't need another war like the Iraq one..

Morning P - that didn't take too long to go past the 21p mark. DId you get your Dad's trade in this morning? I couldn't do much to be honest. Lol...

The market has woken up and taken heed of CNE's update regarding Kraken, i'd imagine.

I don't think that the Magnus waterfall arrangement (payments) is overly complex. The sell-side analysts are downright lazy if they can't be bothered to spend a little bit of time to analyse the Magnus waterfall setup and model free cash flow from it in 2019 (and further out) and consequently, estimate debt reduction. Lazy sods...

Nice one Pelle. Production hit 45 kbopd the day before the AGM - just an example, eh? ;-)

They still mention some equipment issues and maybe we did have that recently during GK's load. If only AK can keep up better...

Off to an early morning round of golf now...AS hookup soon...

AS is now updated to arrive for the STS with Minerva Maya on the morning of the 21st and so, AS hook-up with AK is certainly on tomorrow. I'd make that 28.5 days for the last 2 loads, as HK left on the 19th April at 8 PM after load #35.

Try Saxo - I don't use them, but they seem to be good. And their trading platform is great - about the only site I know that gives real-time Brent quotes/trades for Brent futures right into 2020. ;-). Commissions are £5 for a UK trade.

https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/products/stocks?cmpid=AF_21635252;234263425;0&dclid=CLr2-rTSpeICFcTN3god7cQFMg