Member Info for epiphany121

Oil rigs are down 2. They're 39 down over last year. Permian is off 1 and is down 6 over last year. Most, if not all, major oil shale patches are down over last year.

Mildly bullish, but maybe the market says ho hum!!!

Evening P,

Nah, I've just been sat at the Billund airport for the past 6 hours and was finding something to burn my time and who better than Numpty?? Lol. Its been a lot of Scandinavia these past couple of months.

On a good trade news day, Brent would've up a buck or more on today's headlines. Such is the outsized effect numpty's been having on Brent and Market in general though.

I know of Kosmos and I looked it up last year and passed up on that. The issue they don't have and we do, is the whole management credibility topic. I do acknowledge that. And the whole CNE reserves downgrade drama didn't help. They're, finally, taking some baby steps to get analysts better aligned and that can only be good, IMO.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that the trade drama doesn't get out of hand.

GL...

Ah, yes. Those matter too, don't they? The speculation is that once enough pipelines come online in Q3, Permian will be back to it's merry ways and the US will 'over-produce' as has been usual the past couple of years.

Have a nice one, Spindok. We'll come good, someday soon. Even with the numbskull doing his best to disrupt the economy and Brent..

Yes, a fed rate cut will now be on the menu, particularly if the economy does slow down, which it's now likely to. The market is trying to price in these risks at this time and it's complete guesswork as to where we'll end up with our bread provider - Brent. ;-)

QE will be a long way away though, as the fed still the conventional rate cuts to work through, before stepping back into the QE domain - there's a good 200 basis point reduction that it can put through over time, before QE is considered.

Dow 30k = Brent 80 plus - oh won't we all desperately need it. I sure do. ;-)

He's a complete F...ing quarter brained numbskull. Doesn't understand basic economics and comes up with these f'ed up, senseless tweets. About par for the course for all these fear mongering nationalists that a post deep recession economy throws up like clockwork, I suppose.

OK - we just need to wait for Dow to sell off a few hundred points and he'll come around to realising what a frikking disaster his policies have been. C'est la vie..

They listed bits on AK that have more or less been rectitied, but also listed ongoing works for the following. The 3 ongoing bits are work in progress and only one of it is actually related to the FPSO and that's related to the heat exchanger losses - someone who knows FPSOs could probably fully explain what that issue could be.

Material improvement in production efficiency in
March/April compared to first two months of 2018
? Main power engine activities:
? provision of clean, reliable fuel ?
? spares management for maintenance ?
? further offshore training – ongoing
? dedicated offshore support team - ongoing
? HSP activities:
? plant stabilised reflecting improved power
stabilisation ?
? spares management ?
? Heat exchanger activities:
? spares management ?
? reliability engineers supporting root cause
analysis of losses - ongoing
? Increased offshore engineering support for critical
utility equipment operation and maintenance ?

They're talking up PM8/Seligi, which is currently at 35% RF, as opposed to near circa 50% plus for Magnus, and is just as big in terms of STOIIP. Kraken may also have an additional STOIIP of 165 mmbbls, and extrapolating based on fields' recovery, say 80 mmbbls 2P, when drilling is eventuallly done.

Keep talking more to the city numpties, ENQ. Every quarter helps and even every 2 months wont harm.

Nice spot, Pelle. Yes, it looks like they did have an update with Analysts this month and uploaded the new presentation deck. The positive here is that they're at least taking the story to the market more and creating the required awareness of the ENQ equity story and maybe that'll bring around the required positivity in the near future.

I haven't finished reviewing it yet, but I can see clear reference to increased AK uptime in March and Aprl, which we know about anyway.

Hey MO,

Nice to hear from you and long time no hear, but better late than never and it's good you're around somewhere in the matrix still. Have you been fine tuning your 300 yard drives of late? ;-)

Kraken may yet be ready for your much vaunted 'roars' and it's been tracking well for the past couple of months. We'll keep following and assessing what the flow rate's like. The FPSO may stabilise more after the Q3 maintenance is done and dusted.

GL..

I'm with 100% Auson on this. Stalling H2 growth will hit Brent hard, unless of course there;s a war in Iran and they shut off the Straits of Hormutz. THat'll add a $10 to $15 (or more) risk premium to Brent.

KO/Hitman - you can try and justify that Tariffs don't matter how much ever you like, the economics 101 dictates that Tariffs are a tax on consumers and the proposed degree of tariffs do matter. There's also the matter of what happens when China escalates with counter tariffs/measures, which they almost certainly will.

It will raise costs for US consumers, will decrease US-China trade as well as China GDP growth, albeit to a higher extent than the US. There will still be an impact though. If history has taught us anything, large scale tariffs are bad and will impact confidence and trade. US may be seemingly booming, but given the stage of the economic cycle, it won't take much to push it in a recession, and any large scale tariffs will provide just that trigger. Note what happened to economic expectations in Q4 last year and how that pushed Brent to where it got to!!!

Deluding oneself that tariffs don't matter is indeed the perfect recipe to set oneself up for failure. If the talks do fail today, then it's to what extent these tariffs get rolled out and the counter-measures from China that'll determine how the global economy and by extension, Brent, shapes up in the coming days/weeks. I don't really see a positive outcome in this scenario, at least in the short to medium term.

All the signs are pointing to a no-deal today with the Chinese and tariffs kicking in later tonight. So more heartaches for Brent and Enquest unfortunately. It is what it is, I suppose.

Indeed. #37 inside a week from now will confirm the recent better rates from AK.

Brilliant performance, Tottenham!!!

OK - so NH just left Kraken and certainly headed to Scapa to fill up Minerva - that's pretty clear now.

GLA

Cheers, Chilting. I can't see NH appear in the STS list for Scapa and so, what I'm guessing is that NH will take a load to somewhere in Europe and we'll see a small load in the next 5 or 6 days to go fill up Minerva in Scapa. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

Chilting - I can't see an STS at Scapa or Sullom Voe for NH. It's a possibility that this is a full 500k load for one of the European refineries, and maybe GK or another Shuttle would come around to AK to get that remaining half load to full up Minerva.

If you spot anything, do let us know.

Best

Should be tomorrow morning. FSG did leave AK a couple of hours ago..

All in good time - this is time to be patient and not look at this correction so far as the new normal. After all, Brent did move up from $50 to $75 without a meaningful correction, and so it doesn't surprise me that you get a correction.

The trade war is certainly an unwanted escalation that's causing near term uncertainty, These trade wars are never good and if it doesn't get resolved in some fashion by the end of this week and the tariffs come on as warned, then I'll start to get concerned.

Yes, but there was a products draw and that's stabilised WTI/Brent after the announcement.

Crude +2.81mm (+1.2mm exp)

Cushing +618k

Gasoline -2.833mm

Distillates -834k

I remember reading about DGOC after someone (possibly you Romaron) posted on here about it. I remember reading up about their Appalachia gas assets and passing up on that. There are way too many Shale gas players in the US and the prodigious amount of Gas produced in the Permian as a 'by product' of fracking for oil, is a reality. These frackers are having to pay to customers for gas offtake and this does impact pricing in other shale areas like the Appalachia where DGOC has most of their assets. Gas pricing in the US is pretty shiite, TBH.

I suppose low(ish) debt is one thing that DGOC has going for it, and given the state of where the Stock prices for solid players in both OIl as well as Gas shale patches have played out in the past 6 to 8 months on the NYSE/Nasdaq, I'm surprised that this SP has held up that well here on the LSE. Most shale players in the US don't do dividends, but are seeing wasting their FCF on more drilling creating that much discussed treadmill effect and that's one area that DGOC is maybe steering clear of.

Either way, this one's not for me and we stand to ride a far better upside with ENQ with favourable Brent pricing.