Member Info for epiphany121

Thanks, MO.

If only Brent plays ball, we'll be in a great shape by this time next year - financial strength-wise. The orange man not withstanding...

Hello MO and Chilts,

FS Cygnus looks to be leaving AK and so, we should indeed be good for today. Fingers crossed.

AB did quote a number in the AGM regarding AK using its own fuel. He did say it was quite power intensive with the 4 engines heating the water for re-injection. If I remember right, I believe he mentioned a 1.5 kboepd number. I didn't write it down and am relying on my memory (pretty fallible these days). Yes indeed, AK is trending quite well.

@Romaron/other attendees - did you note this number and if yes, can you please share?

Thanks

The market will and has reacted to Trump's actions - it's as simple as that. Does it get it right all the time - No. But, it does it best to price assets based on a whole gamut of inputs, and at this point, it's forecasting a recession with the deep yield curve inversion caused by the numpty's trade wars and is smashing down oil accordingly. Brent's off 2 bucks today as I write and will no doubt be in the 50s shortly.

What a mighty fine avoidable mess created by a single buffoon and not to forget, the incongruous new age nationalism that created him in the first place...sigh!!!

Enjoy the day, P. Sadly, Brent and us are not going anywhere with the Trump mess, in spite of all of the positive acquisition news in the NS

Tom - yes, thanks for reminding that today is the 'actuals' Feb data point from the EIA. The market is front running a big economic slowdown and I fear this will take Brent into the 50s soon enough and ENQ in the mid teens isn't a remote possibility anymore. His latest Mexico tariff escalation has the market spooked more.

The only further stimulus I can see on the horizon is the $2 trillion infrastructure bill that's been discussed with the dems and that is pretty substantial, yes. However, things look likely to get worse before they get better. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in September and that tells us all we need to know about the state of the US economy. This is as self-inflicted as it gets.

GL

KO - a logical explanation to the resident AB hater is about as useful as explaining to Numpty why he needs to pull back from his tariffs that may just cause a global recession because of shattered business/consumer confidence. Lol...

Trying to second guess Trump is futile. Dow has to fall a lot more before he changes tack, and if that happens Brent would also be down a lot. The treasury yield curve is pretty inverted now and that's indicating all sorts of nasty economic data on it's way and that's never good for Oil and stock markets.

P - this is down to Hedgies selling on speculation of slower/lower economic growth on account of the trade war. There are no changes to the Iran sanctions.

That report is pretty bearish. No wonder crude is selling off big.

Production back at all-time highs, and no real draws even with decent export increase.

Afternoon Romaron,

Noted your ( and others) posts today. I've been 'trying' to read the posts today, but being out at the cricket and on all the bubbly doesnt help much. But, it's good that we're up on a day when Brent isn't behaving.

What Ithaca's purchase is telling us is how undervalued we are, even with the debt on our books.

Here's the link..

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-29/wti-extends-gains-after-bigger-expected-crude-draw

API Stats - Gasoline was up though. WTI/Brent bouncing higher...

Crude -5.265mm (-500k exp)

Cushing -176k

Gasoline +2.711mm

Distillates -2.144mm

Nice work, Therapist.

Cheers

Morning KO - the US is starting to suffer too. Economic confidence and data is rolling over, slowly but surely. The Tax cut sugar rush is wearing out and businesses won't invest in these highly uncertain times. I hope, for our sake at least, he rolls over and cuts a deal with the Chinese. You're right, they've dug in too - that's the reality and unlike Numpty, they don't have an election to contend with in 18 months time. Growth for Q2 is currently trending at less than 1% on an annualised basis and runs counter to the 'US is currently the greatest economy' fantasy that Numpty espouses.

Pelle - that's spot on.

The waterfall is worked out quarterly and NET cashflows at the end of each quarter are appropriated

1. BP vendor loan repayment installment (over 5 years)
2. Then ENQ's share of $100 mill to be repaid
3. If anything's left over, then it's the profit share.

We can only expect the profit share to possibly kick in around Q4, if Brent stays reasonably OK - around $65. We've definitely beaten this topic to death in the past (and continuing to do so...) ;-)

Best..

Morning P - yes, tracking at between 40 to 45 kbopd.

The trade war is plainly killing any economic confidence and I won't be surprised to see a recession in the US and elsewhere should this drag on for too long. What a mess that Numpty is pulling us into. We know where Brent will be in such a scenario - we saw what happened in December last year..And that is big risk for ENQ and other oil companies.

Thanks, YOY. Our army of tanker spotters are indeed sharp...

Chilting - the July Brent contract expires on the 30th May and the active contract now is the August contract and that traded at circa 68.70 at the close today, up from 67.28 at the low of the day.

Pelle had once posted a link to this chap's twitter account. He does post some useful analyses on there and this one is on why US inventories are building even though refinery utilisation is pretty high and production is currently been 'stagnant' for the past few months. Apparently, it's a lag effect in that growth was pretty high in October/November 2018 drilling was in full flow.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1131971920151351298

On another note, another favourite metric of mine that is a good pain indicator for Shale - the WTI Brent is nearly $10 now. WTL is apparently now circa $4 off Cushing WTI. Yikes. That's $54 for Permian crude at this time. A seriously dumb bunch of idiots.

https://www.theice.com/products/1242/Brent-WTI-Futures-Spread/data?marketId=5389420

Have a nice weekend all...

Lol..KO. :-) I only pass on what I know. Cheers.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/production/article/14033753/enquest-seeking-to-prove-more-oil-at-north-sea-magnus-field

Here's some more detail on Magnus and other fields. They need to do more drilling in order to convert the STOIIP to 2C & 2P, as you've already observed, Romaron. Yes, indeed STOIIP is not reserves, and additional drilling needs to be done to get there.