Member Info for epiphany121

I can't argue with that, NH.

TWalyoff - I looked at their financials a few days ago. Obviously, they have lower debt plus their 2C is massive. However, that 2C is what it is at this time - they really need to do more drilling/field development to convert those into better ascertained 2P reserves and get them out of the ground. Therein is still the risk for me and one of the reasons why the SP has tanked from 64p to 26p now.

They need large scale investments to move that oil out of the ground and that will take time. I believe they have another project due online in Q4 20/Q1 21, but that isn't significant really. I'm not invested in HUR (never was, even for a trade like PMO), but the fall certainly makes it a bit more investible, albeit the wait for returns would be long (if their FDPs go forward).

For now, I'm sitting tight in Enquest, which is happily spinning out lots of FCF at these Brent levels, and to a smaller extent, in a couple of Permian plays.

GL..

Hitman - this is no doubt giving Brent a boost this morning. Holding the 65 handle will be fantastic for us - keep that cash rolling in.

https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1218129934444568577

NO steaming ahead to Kraken and not taking it to Orkney. It's probably fair to say that it's headed back to Rotterdam for use as Bunker fuel, post mixing with another low sulphur grade crude. Premiums do smell good...

TWal - I'm not sure if we can categorise HUR and GENL as similar. HUR is still an 'exploration' play, even though they do produce circa 18 kbopd from their Shetland play. GENL/GKP is Kurdistan and is a risky geopolitical play even though their current financials are gold, their SPs reflect the risk. I don't follow the other ones you mentioned.

I'm sure most on here will acknowledge the comparative under-valuation of ENQ Vs PMO/TLW, even as the gap has closed recently. I still believe that Enquest will focus on getting net debt below $1 bill in 2020 and then pivot to expansion in 2021. That takes out any lingering perceived risk that the market may have and move towards a valuation multiple in line with the likes of TLW/PMO.

PMO is too much of a gas play for my liking and their recent acquisition results in a bit more gas mix in their BOEPD production run-rate. Other than because of the current ARCM short squeeze, I can't think of a reason why the SP is at 120 at this time, what with the rights issue on the cards soon. The less I say about TLW, the better it is - maybe a couple of words - a 'Train wreck'.

And it's not even back to where it really should've been early last year, IMO. All of the debt reduction since should've added even more - the tide has turned and with the troubles that good old Tullow is facing and the fact that they can only generate a pretty useless amount of FCF to pay down their debt, institutions will be compelled to look at the Enquest story, particularly after the results come out in a couple of months.

GLA...

Chaps - the only tax we pay is on Malaysian profits. It is well know that the $3 bill plus accumulated tax losses on our books as of H1 2019, will cover any UK taxable income for the foreseeable future.

Fantastic indeed. Couple the production with the nice premiums that Kraken oil (not you, KO) is realising, it's not a wonder that we're now basically at levels where we should've been last year in April when Brent was at $75. With the debt reduction since, we should really be in the 30s at a minimum. Not to worry, it'll all work itself out....it always does.

We only need to see what happened to TLW in the past few months!!

Nice one, YOY. You're quite the spotter...Cheers

Mildly bullish and crude is reacting. They're stilling counting on the circa 1.1 mmbbls/day boost from the US (Plus 1 mmbbls from other countries), to get their 2.1 mmbbls/day supply boost figure - No way, Jose. US isn't getting there.. ;-)

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2020

Auson - to put the debate to rest, check the grades of various crudes around the world via this link. You'll see that Kraken (Bottom right as listed as KR) is classified as Heavy & Sour, which is what it should be.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/plattscontent/_assets/_files/downloads/crude_grades_periodic_table/crude_grades_periodic_table.html

Poor Tullow - it has been owned by the shorts and is down to low 50s now. Heardy - maybe, we'll overtake them this year ;-)

Only to be expected and like I said last evening. It will go up towards 13.4 or so in the coming weeks/months and then fall back - that's the reality!!!

Cheers, R. And to Hitman's point, if institutions are buying/accumulating, they'll need to shell out more at higher prices, and hence the higher SP re-basing going on for the past 3 weeks or so. And the sell-side has now given plenty of ammunition for institutions/large PIs to buy into Enquest at these price levels.

I've been discussing with a few Enquest shareholders on Whatspp, and they're betting on 50+ plus this year. I'm at a conservative 40s for this year, but if Brent breaks out, then 50s in 2020 is not fantasy anymore.

GL...

That's a good point, NH. They're not going to let that key premium bit pass in their update. I'm sure they'll be writing back some, if not all of the reserves downgrade from last year.

Morning Romaron et all,

Agree about A/G being an unmitigated disaster and we just need to call it as it is. Kraken's turning around and at the right time for IMO 2020 premium upswing. Enquest IR, as any professional IR would, won't be drawn into providing actual premiums that Kraken is currently realising (Insider info and all that), but they've Indicated what Pelle/I have been saying that it's not anywhere close to the Pyrenees premium, but that they're at elevated levels. All should be revealed in the upcoming Ops update - due out end-Jan/early Feb.

I'd wager that the premiums are in the 5 to 10 bucks range, maybe closer to the top end of the range, and that'll do us just fine. Hold your horses!!

Inside Trump's private club, I'm sure everything goes....Insane.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1217171706076418048

The STEO is projecting production for Nov-19, Dec-19 and Jan-20 as - 12.86 12.97 13.15.

They were 100K higher for Oct Vs Actuals when the STEO came out last month and so, I'd be sceptical about their projections at this time. Actuals out in just over 2 weeks would clarify and so would the weekly projections . December weekly were close to 12.85 mmbbls and that may be a good number to work off.

There's nothing better than WTI under 60 to keep the shalers quiet.

GLA..

KO - It probably won't be another mill bbls. Weekly currently are at 12.9 and the current consensus based on the dropping rig counts and DUC inventory wind-down apparently projects production getting up to the low to mid 13 mmbbls/day in the first few months and then starting to drop from those levels. Any which we cut it, I can't really see the 13.3 mmbbls average for 2020. Not unless rigs come back dramatically and that won't be an option unless WTI goes to 65+ and stays there for a few months.

The STEO is out today obviously - I'll read that up and come back..

Very interesting and quite bullish, if you think about it - to bump up the annual price targets by nearly 5 bucks. Did they revise projected US production downwards in 2020 - they're sitting projecting more than a million bbls/day, I'm sure.

Shale - I wish I could go and slap all those producers to shame for perpetrating the largest shareholder value destroying oil racket in history. ;-)

The tide may yet turn and bring them back to reality in 2020. That's what the oil market is waiting for with bated breath!!