Member Info for epiphany121

Morning Romaron,

It is a sad state of affairs indeed with the bully US and Iran. I'm broadly in alignment with your views on the US - for a while it looked like Trump would be less belligerent, but alas. The (real) terrorists in the Sunni world who actually cause harm to western interests are all America's friends and hence all's good and Iran's the pariah!!! I feel for the people who're suffering, and I can't realistically see a scenario where the mullahs lose their grip on the country - well, not in the next few years anyway. This status quo continues, maybe as long as you have the neocons controlling US' foreign policy.

Higher oil prices is about the only solace for me in this current scenario.

An interesting take on the recent Iraq events, vis-a-vis Trump and the US. Neocons are back in full control over Trump - that's the read.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-laments-trumps-point-no-return

Morning Chilts - thanks. Fingers crossed then.

Off to Glen Lyon is HK. Maybe Ingrid Knutsen anchored off Aberdeen??

chilts - HK is now indeed where I said it was - it shows up in the AIS and is now just North of the earlier satellite tanker position east of Wick. It does look like HK will aim to be there at AK sometime on Sunday.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-1.0/centery:59.6/zoom:8

Cheers. Fingers crossed then.

Chilts - this could be HK - east of Wick and picked up by Satellite. FS Cygnus is also due at AK on the 5th at mid-day and is loitering around a little bit south and west of this potential HK location. I'd imagine both of them will not get there for Sunday afternoon or so.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-1.3/centery:58.3/zoom:8

GL...

Final news for the week. Oil rigs off 7 to 670 from 877 last year. From what I can see, Permian's off 2 and Stack/Scoop in Oklahoma is off 1. Here's hoping that Brent can finish somewhere around the $68 level..

Good weekend all.

Crude draw was 11.5 mmbbls. Products increased though and Production was unchanged at 12.9 mmbbls/day, for a 4 weekly average of 12.85 mmbbls/day. Cushing stocks also fell 1.5 mmbbls. THat's a fairly bullish report, albeit tempered by product builds as refineries got to work.

It came out a touch hotter than the weekly averages - maybe that's why the early noon selloff in WTI/Brent (it could also be the French tariff news though).

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/

The October weekly average estimate had it at 12.6 mmbbls, whilst the actuals came out at 12.66 mmbbls/day. Williston looked like the key driver for this increase. I'll go with the EIA weekly numbers for end-December and we'll likely see circa 13 mmbbls/day in the December actuals. I'm just about hoping for a moderation of growth in 2020 - all the bandied tier1/tier2 reasoning is flawed, IMO.

"TLW doesn't come without a level of risk for sure. But its not as risky as ENQ imo.". Lol - is this why TLW fell 70% on a single day - try telling the 'not as risky as ENQ' theory to longs who bought in on the Guyana and the Africa is not risky Koolaid.

Many metrics you've quoted below only show that Enquest's vastly undervalued relative to TLW (even now after the recent sell-off) and I suppose there are reasons for that low valuation, but that's due to change in 2020. Enquest will be in a sustainable dividend territory by 2021, whereas TLW's div reinstatement is an unknown at this time.

Davey - is this sour grapes from Tullow's 65% drop in 2019? Lol...

Enquest's marginally down from end 2018 and we're in a much better shape financially than TLW. With the number of operational mishaps that you've had in 2019, I'm not surprised to see the SP where it is now. We don't have large capex like you do and I'm afraid you'll be left with a basket case share for 2020 - unless your operational execution picks up in 2020. Carapa won't really get your far - maybe just a little lift if the drill results come out positive.

I suggest that you don't let Neil Hannon get to you and cloud your judgement that you feel compelled to retaliate on this board, without being up to speed with the Enquest investment thesis.

Wish you well with your TLW investment...

Cheers, P. Its all aligning rather nicely forEnquest. I'll bet that at least one of your legs will do rather well in 2020.

GL..

Nice one, Colebrooke. I know you're one of the believers in the Enquest story and it's a great feeling when the market takes note of it (finally). Volume was very good for a holiday week trading day and even if we don't shoot through the 24 in the coming days, we'll certainly get there in Q1 2020. If Brent does somehow get to the high 70s/low 80s and stays there for a few months, then Divs should come through in 2021 realistically, but AB may surprise us with a small distribution announcement with the H1 2020 results in Sept 2020.

GLA...

Normal service resumes and oil rigs are down 8. Permian is off 9..nice.

A very good day for holders and we look forward to a fantastic 2020 for ENQ.

Good weekend all..

Excellent news. Thanks, Steelwatch. As we presumed, all good with AK and it's BAU now..

Fairly bearish and news may have 'leaked' with WTI selling off a bit today. Permian's up 14 and Eagle Ford's up 7. This kind of reinforces a notion in the oil market that with WTI above 60, shalers will happily come back and plough more money to drilling new wells.

MO - thanks for the Betty K update on Kraken. We'll just have to see when the next load comes in.

Good weekend all...

Came out bullish. Production was unchanged at 12.8 mmbbls. Brent's moved up to the day's highs now. Nice to hear the kerching...

US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 13-Dec: -1085K (est -1750K; prev 822K)
- DoE Distillate (W/W): 1509K (est -400K; prev 4118K)
- DoE Cushing (W/W): -265K (prev -3393K)
- DoE Gasoline (W/W): 2529K (est 2000K; prev 54...

Hello Romaron,
Whilst I don't think the "Shale is increasingly being managed by majors who also have an interest in maximizing EUR wells so their interest is our interest" line is correct, it is true that they're the ones who're actually adding rigs in the Permian, whilst the smaller/medium ones are the ones that have pulled back. It is true that Shale production is a capital intensive 'game, but then project durations are smaller. If there is a good spike in oil prices, shale will be back roaring I'm afraid. Unless there is clear evidence that Tier 2 sites can't produce as much as Tier 1 and so on, the current line of negativity on productivity and negative growth is misplaced. Slower/smaller growth may in fact be the best outcome.

P.S: I'm with you on the other topic of Scots' independence. Should they want to go down the route of another referendum given the altered reality around our EU relationship after Brexit, why should our government deny it? Let the politicians play that one out then.... ;-)

Brent 65 and we're in good shape though. Unlike how the global economy looked in October, it is in a better shape now and Brent's reflecting that reality.. I'd speculated that Brent may hit $70 in December if that trade deal happens - I don;t think that we'll get there, but Q1 2020 sure looks good. We'll move up soon - the day to day frustrated commentary by most of here not withstanding... ;-)

The oil rig count finally rose by 4 after 16 straight weeks of decline. The growth came in a rather non-oil dominant basin, Marcellus. The big oil shale basins were flat - with Niobrara in Denver/Wyoming losing 1.

It looks like shale spend will be down more than it was in 2019, and increasing production growth won't be easy. And it looks like economic growth may bounce back in 2020, as global PMIs are now tracking upwards. We'll just need to hang in there.

https://www.oilandgas360.com/shale-spending-to-fall-12-in-2020-report/

Good weekend