Member Info for epiphany121

Also, the average in the last 2 months was just over 42k (42.2 kboepd), based on CNE's numbers, which is great given that the winter months are always iffy in the North Sea. Kraken doing well, and Premium in place. With the new drills this H1 and wells coming online this year, the plateau rates should be sustainable for longer, just like the Catcher fields will for CNE.

Yes, CNE gave a middle of the road update- nothing that we didn't already know - Kraken outperforming + premium on Kraken cargoes. Reserve write-back, yes agree, most likely in March.

Brent/WTI - knee-jerk reaction to the virus scare from Wuhan - not much else really..

There are plenty of drilling opportunities at existing fields for the next couple of years that we don't need to go running to buy new fields in this still unhealthy debt situation that we're in. @Ndalla - new acquisitions are not going to happen. Enquest BOD are not as idiotic as PMO's to go asset buying at this time when Brent's at 65. AB made a fabulous move with Magnus when Brent was circa 50 and that provides enough drilling upside for the next couple of years without needing vast amounts of capex, until net debt is brought down substantially below $1 bill. That's what their focus will be for the coming 18 months, IMO. AB and the directors are pretty sane, having licked their battle wounds from past debacles and they know what the market really wants to see - solidly lower net debt. This is where their focus should be and IMO, they have a laser focus on that goal.

Divs next year is still on for me...

About 120KBOPD at risk in Iraq, as seen below. If the full shutdown speculation in Libya is confirmed, then that's certainly bullish - that's a 1.3 mmbbls/day hit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-19/iraqi-oil-field-halts-as-protests-calling-for-reforms-escalate

That's a meaty chunk of production shut down in Libya. Let's see how long it lasts, but this 'could' provide temporary upside over the next day/s.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/libyas-oil-output-halved-by-port-blockade-11579353234

Modestus - yes, indeed. I follow these guys closely, wouldn't touch them with a 100ft pole. The unfortunate reality for these mostly Appalachia drillers you listed, is that many parts of the Permian are gassy (Delaware more so than say Midland) and there's so much gas produced alongside oil, that there's too much of it floating about and the gas price everywhere is nuts. You have the likes of Devon getting rid of their gas properties as soon as they can and orienting more towards oil.

And the likes of EQT are refinancing their 6% debt due inside the next couple of years with longer dated 9% debt - they're just looking to survive rather than anything else. What an epic disaster for America largest gas producer when their SP falls from around 40 to 8 inside 30 months, and is still sinking.

It'll come back to bite gas heavy (or higher gas mix) producers in the UK too - and that is why the longer term investment case for Enquest is better than the likes of PMO. We'll ride this out well.

Mavrick - I meant to ask Matrix Observer, who's gone silent in the past few weeks/months. It's good to know that you even added in the 20s. The tide has definitely turned for Enquest, and IMO, with TLW suffering and PMO to suffer, institutional money will come our way. If Brent breaks 70s and sits there and we get the additional Kraken premium of possibly high single digits, 50s could be with us this year.

GL...

"SmokingAces,
Exactly what I said, ty."

That's not what you wrote you i***t. "Dividends could be announced a year prior to Hitman's assessments. That is 2 months down the road, at FY 2019 report."

THis is what SmokingAces wrote "They can announce in the 2020 AGM that there will be dividends paid in 2021. " - From the little English that I read - that's not exactly what you wrote. I've got no problem with SA wrote as there's clarity and no intention to deceive, unlike you with changing timelines every hour. Are we talking to Donald Trump's doppelganger? AGM is not 2 months down the road and is not the same time as FY19 report. Put your friggin money where your rabid mouth is and have a wager and let's see whether they even telegraph dividend intentions on or before the AGM - I'm saying NO.

Lets make a XXX (Pick a number) Enquest share wager that there'll be dividend announcements before H1 20 results - put your money where your mouth is and let's see who comes out on top. After all, you know everything!!!

Nat gas news link - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-price-fundamental-daily-forecast-change-in-weather-model-send-prices-below-2-00-626756

Agree, BC. Timeout from me - I'll try not to keep up with that level of .... next time!!

Nat gas dipped below $2/BTU in the winter for the first time ever and that's all down to the shale idiots. Asian and Europe prices will likely follow, if not down to that level, but certainly to levels where it's painful for producers (PMO/TLW) and great for consumers. PMO gets more 'gassy' with their proposed new acquisitions and in the longer run, I can't see how their relative valuation to Enquest is sustainable. It's just ARCM's idiotic short that's keeping PMO's price at these levels, IMO.

This is where we have lots of positives going for us, given how little gas we produce and sell. PMO/TLW have a lot more nat gas exposure than we do, and that's a major feather in our cap.

I remember Romaron already stated this - We'll be knocking on the FTSE-250 doors soon. We're close to being the 400th largest market-cap company in Britain and another 25% raise should get us to FTSE-250. At 40p, we're assured of being there. If Kraken and Brent continue to support, we'll get there before the AGM. AB may just do a moon walk for us then!!!

Relax little girl - no temper tantrums. Mummy is still waiting for you. Go to bed NOW!!!

Matrix - I just remembered. Are you around in Enquest or did you sell and go away? We don't hear from you these days and I hope you're still in it. It's been a good run the past month, Kraken is roaring in more than one way. Can't ask for more, TBH.

Relax little girl - I never once said on this board that I'm the expert of anything. You on the other hand is the pompous little girl that this board doesn't need. People aren't necessarily on crack just because they don't buy your fantasies or conform to yours. Run along now - mummy is waiting to tuck you into bed.

So says the fantasist HMHn. I'm sure they buy your fantasies on the Swedish MB, but there are many realists on here. I'm still waiting for any one of your fantasies to come true. Dividend announcement in 2 months - that's the best Corker yet!! I'll be more than happy to place a wager on that.

Here's the link and they're re-iterating North America capex is bad news with Shale pulling back and they're now talking production growth between 400 to 800K, versus 1.1 mmbbls that EIA has, in turn expecting some tightness/higher Brent/WTI.

The mid point 600K US growth results in an average of about 12.9 mmbbls for 2019. THis would still mean production falls as the weeks/months go on, with the US starting 2020 at 13 mmbbls. No doubt the market will notice when that happens.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/schlumberger-announces-full-fourth-quarter-115000127.html

Nice one, Hitman. I'm hoping that CNE validates the Kraken assumptions we now have around high premiums PLUS the reserve write-back, and we should be then off to the races.

I occasionally check out the ADVFN MBs and the couple of miserable gits on there (Stan and AndyPop) have now vanished after a year of trolling the longs on that site. Lol - that tells a story. Proclamations of Enquest's death were way too premature and their trading strategy left them behind. C'est la vie!!!

GL...and let dreams be dreams!! ;-)

Hitman - it looks your original 30p target may yet happen today. US economic data is still running hot - housing starts were very strong!!

WEny - this RNS says that Petrotal actually receives Brent minus $4 for their oil. They get none of the premium that Kraken is currently getting for the Kraken crude, I'd say...

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/PTAL/14364228.html

Personally, I've never even heard of Petrotal...