Member Info for epiphany121

Holy cow - this is not something that's discussed much in the oil industry, for obvious reasons. At best, the federal government can only ban fracking on federal lands and that would be a good start. Would help oil prices broadly too!!!

And you graduated in Brown-nosing no doubt? Good for you, little cub! Your opinions are as useful as you - zero value.

Yesterday's VLSFO price in Rotterdam was the equivalent of $72 versus $63 for Brent.

https://shipandbunker.com/prices/emea/nwe/nl-rtm-rotterdam

Prices are higher in the ME and Singapore, don't believe we're shipping there.

Based on Rotterdam pricing of VLSFO, I saw workings on the internet that indicated a high single-digit premium to Brent. Circa 7 or so..

He was probably referring to the Santos crude grade that received high 90s recently when Brent was in the high 60s. Near enough to 3 digits, but that's the actual price and not the premium...Premium was circa 30, from memory.

What's at a 3 digit premium? Surely that's a typo...

The current move lower is just hedgies speculating on lower demand because of the Coronavirus. THat'll hopefully blow out in the coming days and Brent moves back towards the 65 price point, slowly but surely. Of course, it'll help if cuts are extended or even increased. And that's assuming the shale idiots play ball.

Chilting or anyone else - did you hear the interview? What were the highlights?

Evening P - that's indeed fantastic for us. Let's see where Brent lands in the coming days after the Wuhan virus scare takes a back seat. And of course - I hate the F'ing shalers, even though I own a couple of names. Which part of 'Don't f**k yourself' don't they understand? Clueless ******s - they've F**ked up gas and they have their eyes set on oil now - frustrating.

About the best thing I can say is that the Stock prices have dropped in the past couple of weeks by a good 10 to 20% for most players, and that's on time for when they set their annual capex budgets. We'll see whether the F**k nuts use their little remaining common sense to decide enough is enough with this over-production and that they need to cut hard. For the sake of our portfolios... ;-). They start reporting next week.

And that's inline with what you've picked up from the OGA numbers...That's all tallied up now.

@Therapist - I only just noted there's a subtle difference between Enquest's numbers in the November trading update (34 kboepd) vs Cairn's for the full year (35.6 KBOPD). Cairn only quoted oil production, whereas Enquest had the associated gas numbers too. In the Nov update's Kraken section, I know they state 34,286 BOPD, but that's a mistake - it should read 34,386 BOEPD. if you go to page of the update against Kraken, Enquest 70.5% share is 24,172 BOEPD (which is 34,286 BOEPD including CNE's share).

Kraken's gas share is circa 2% and so, Approx BOPD till October would've been 33.6 KBOPD, and by that measure, knowing that FY 19 production was 35.6 KBOPD, Kraken produced an average of 45.6 KBOPD in November and December. THat's indeed a cracking number.

GLA...

For PMO/CNE - Catcher averaged 70.2 kboepd (and 66,600 BOPD) in H1, and FY19 ops update had te early number at 67.2 kboepd (63,600 BOPD), indicating a drop to 60,600 BOPD in H2.

If we assume 58 kBOPD in 2020 for Catcher, say that's 11.6 KBOPD for CNE, and the rest 11.5 KBOPD from Kraken (at the high end of Guidance), that's extrapolating to 40KBOPD from Kraken in 2020, which is just FINE. Kraken is now making up for Catcher's reduction in 2020 - as some on here have stated.

HTH...

We at least let TLW take the biggest loser crown. Poor sods on that board - their daily dose of suffering isn't amusing. At least Hannon isn't on there to inflict yet more misery on that lot.

I suppose Brent will drive the price action here in the near future, until we get clarity on what production would be, Kraken premiums, debt reduction, capex, etc. Ops update time it is..

Tullow's fighting us today for the honour of the biggest loser today, and it's not like they've had a 60% rally from the bottom last month. ;-)

We just need to sit back and relax - a small correction after an important break-out is fine. I'm adding more today.

EIA reported yesterday that the 8 key Shale regions will have the lowest projected growth next month, when compared to the past 24 - 30 months or so. That's a projected rate of 22 kbopd. Since the conversation in the past 2 weeks has turned to one of over-supply, these bits of news is helpful to keep us focused on the coming slowdown in shale land, and WTI down into the 57s today won't help them.

2020 Budget cuts coming next and that's a given now. Let's hope we get back above 65 in the coming days/weeks.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2

Colebrooke - Agreed. The reality is that we've broken out to new yearly highs (Kraken premium a big factor, IMO) and some consolidation isn't the worst outcome. As long as the pull back doesn't exceed 20%, we're good. Traders exit and real longs pile in, I'm hoping. We'll wait to see how this washes out - I'll look to add some on this down move, given the breakout reality.

GLA..

Hitman - yes, Enquest never said that production in 2020 will be lower than in 2019. Even with Alma ceasing production, slightly improved rate from Kraken/Magnus and with Heather/THistle back in operation soon, I'd suggest that the mid-point in 2020 would be closer to 70k ( a touch under perhaps), versus the 66.5k mid-point guidance for 2019 (63 to 70K range). At that production run-rate and with Brent average of $63 and with a Kraken Brent premium of say 6 bucks over 2020, FCF is circa $550 mill. A no-premium scenario gives me just under $500mill.

We should be in good shape to get net debt under $1 bill, not withstanding a supposed steer from IR that was posted here a few months ago that 'suggested' that FCF will come down by less in 2020 than it did in 2019 - that's B**locks to me.

For those watching, Retail bonds are back up above 95, near the 5-year highs last hit in September 2018 when Brent was 20 bucks higher than now. Ignoring the day to day share price action, the bond price action is comforting.

If the equity does correct a bit more from here, I'll be a happy buyer.

I have no doubt that Enquest/AB would be on the lookout for deals/opportunities to expand their current production footprint - my point was they wouldn't go do anything as silly as PMO did in taking on more debt to make such (pricey) acquisitions, with Brent at a relatively robust low to mid 60s. AB stated in the last AGM and re-iterated via the CMD update that the key focus for Enquest was to focus on incremental investments (read existing field expansions), rather than via a debt-fueled spending binge, until current debt levels are lowered meaningfully.

Perhaps in 12-18 months when net debt levels are down below $1 bill and the market cap is well over £1 bill, Enquest can/will seriously look at an acquisition through a debt/equity mix. Until such time, unless BP can do another Magnus type deal, (no doubt on more favourable terms for BP) Enquest wouldn't make a real move - IMO.

P - looking at my notes, the 1st load in December (#53) was with a 14-day gap - that could've accounted for the overall slight reduction in production from Nov?