RE: TRUMP21 May 2018 20:38
KO,
I'm not sure why you think that current POO is too low for exploration & investment. The reality is that at the current oil prices most exploration investment will make money. There are stats that compared to 2014, exploration costs are down close to 50%, because of the efficiencies that have been recently achieved, alongside avoiding highly complex projects. Yes, investments are still down, but in my mind, that's not a function of the current oil price levels, but the fact that oil price has taken off in the past few months and oil companies are still wary of excess supply pushing down future prices, thus rendering high cost oil fields less than competitive. The longer prices stay at these levels or increase from here, we'll see more investment coming in for sure.
If all the oil can be taken out of the Permian that could potentially be produced in another 6 to 9 months could be taken out of that region, coupled with Saudis turning on the tap a bit more, then the supply issues could actually be put aside. What's critical to sustain prices going forwards is how demand fares as a consequence of synchronised global growth. That to me is the real question here.
Best