Member Info for epiphany121

Cheers, MO. I'll keep an out for Scott Spirit as well. But first, a trip to the driving range is in order. It's a fantastic day today for anything outdoorsy, although I did manage to get an afternoon round in yesterday. It was yet another fabulous day and I can only thank the customer that I had to meet. ;-) I do take your point about knee-jerk reactions and short-termism, and that's rampant with a chosen few on this board. Short term hitches or not, I'm firmly focused on the back of the year/2019 as the time when all of Enquest efforts to become a serious North Sea player should come to fruition. The catalysts are there - DC4, Magnus (75%) and additional drilling in the wells that you gave us insight to, Alma/Galia workover. I'm reasonably optimistic about POO. Unlike in 2011 -2014, when the price upswing to over 100 was driven by Libya and the Arab spring, demand seems to be lot better this time. And as long as the idiot at the helm of the US, doesn't bring on large scale trade wars, growth should trend higher, supporting higher oil prices. And Brent is so much better placed than WTI and I wager that Permian output would start getting contrained as the pipelines to get out of there to the Gulf coast have no additional capacity at least till June to September 2019. This should start to constrain output from the gushers in that region soon. The Permian (Midland hub) oil discount to Brent is now at around $18. The majority of my positions were in the Permian drillers till about early April (Centennial resources, Laredo Petro, Earthstone Resources), but with the above in mind, I switched the majority of my ISA holdings to ENQ (Circa 65%) and whatever US E&P companies I have are in non-Permian regions like Bakken (North Dakota), Wattenberg (Colorado) and Eagle Ford (Texas - but much easier to get oil to the Gulf coast for export). Do I have the majority of my eggs in one basket - yes, I do, but I believe in this story. And as you pointed out, If I remember right, that $80 is like $100 plus in 2013/14. Our operating expenses per barrel are a lot lower now and hence, we can generate similar operating cash flows now, as we did in 2014 for the oil sales volume in Barrels. Here's to a sunny and glorious future for us..;-) Best

Good morning to you, MO. I did check this morning and Scott Spirit was still in Hamburg. The AK FPSO can hold a maximum of 600K barrel, from what I remember. If we're producing 40K BOPD, as Indy indicated, then we could be 14 to 15 days without a tanker, presumably? Fingers crossed and hope we'll have better news by Monday. Do you concur with Indy's assessment of 40K BOPD, based on Load #15? I wasn't keeping close tabs on the commentary the tanker knowledgeable people were providing during Load 15. Best

MO/Chilts - what's your read on no shuttle tankers heading to AK about now, after 11 days as you indicated? Could there be any production hiccups, however small? Cheers

Squif - with your 900K holding, I have no doubt you'll be a millionaire sometime next year, just on ENQ alone. ;-) Yes, Alma/Galia was a disappointment for near $1 billion project, but Kraken should just salvage it for us. And Magnus is yet another feather in the cap for Enq/AB, to give him some credit for that. :-) In the end, the one thing that will move SP is POO, and that is certainly in our favour. Best

We do need everyone (and oil) to lift the boat don't we Squiffy? Some of us more positive about ENQ than others, even about AB, for starters..;-)

Lol...Get a grip indeed.

Hydra - in case you haven't been following day to day movements of ENQ, it's been alternating between a day up on very high volume and a normal to less than normal volume with slight reduction in price or flat to slightly up. So, this won't be going up in Hydra's timescales, I don't think..;-) Wait till Thursday and you may get a decent move up. There's been heavy accumulation in the past few days though. GL

100% agreed, MO. That was a brilliant call not to farm out 20% Delek at a Sh**te price. That's now a circa 10K BOPD and a potential $200 million annual revenue, as opposed to a $200 million one time cashflow with the farm out.

So, it does react - for a day or two. Beyond that, it's the fundamentals around oil price, debt reduction, additional projects - these would drive the price over a longer time frame, beyond say a week after a revised rating is out. I firmly believe that the future is bright. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a doubling in the SP from these levels over the next 6 to 9 months, if the POO holds at around these levels. Best

KO, in all seriousness, James Howie, the O&G analyst at Barclays, is probably one of the most useless ones around. Why would we need him to up his target anyway?..;-)

Ahh, the messiahs have finally gotten around to wiping the toilet seats, have they? They started with PMO, and with their meticulous research, they'll come around to revising ENQ sometime in December 2018, after having spent the next 6 to 7 months validating their $68 Brent pricing assumptions. I did always envy their intellect and alacrity, and their seeming obliviousness to reality - these qualities do make Barclays the research messiahs that they are. Thanks for sharing the info, Auson!!!

All the best and have a big toast for me too. 50p isn't too far away!!!

Day traders = Instant Gratification needs = impulsive decisions = unhappy outcomes. With oil prices behaving as they are - I'd have a bunch of MT/LT shares tucked away as investment and a small portion of 'trading' shares to play ST trades. I have some ENQ in a spreadbet account and even in that, I'm not really day trading. It's only ever to satisfy the urge to sell - Lol.. Unlike a lot of you, I've only been in ENQ for a couple of months, but I do believe in that story. Brent kissed 80 just now..Yippee..

SmallT - AGM is on the 24th and that's when we'd get the update. Brent has finally hit 80s level just now, and if you're front-running a trade for next week's update, then yep, all the best. A rising tide does lift debt-laden oilies and changes the game in their favour. Best

Absolutely, Jan. As per the 2017 AR, we're at less than $5 discount to spot Brent, and yes, the discount now could 3 or 4 or even lower, we don't know and it doesn't matter too much in the bid picture with Brent continuing to ramp up and carrying Kraken pricing with it.

Kraken is a slightly heavier variety of Brent, and there's a $4 to $5 discount to the spot Brent prices, not the circa $8 difference between Brent and WTI, which will only widen further with the copious amounts of slight sweet oil coming out of the Permian and Eagle Ford basins. Oh, ENQ will go up smartly all tight and we won't really need to worry about profits or debt, if Brent stays at these levels. We'll certainly outperform TLW and PMO, once the update is out next week. And ENQ has a ready upshot in the Magnus option too. That's a 10k BOPD addition once that's exercised. Best

The Messiahs at Barclays have put out a research note that they expect Brent to (average I assume) $68.2 for 2018. https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/997030486198439937 My goodness, what would poor sods like us do without their deep insight and crystal ball skills? And they've been spot on with their price targets for ENQ, haven't they? Something in the mid to high 20p range. I can't recommend them enough and hence, I'm planning to quit my day job and join Barclays as an unpaid intern to enhance my analysis skills and recommend market busting winners for next year or two. GLTA

Cheers, NT

On the day of the AGM on the 24th.

Morning MO, Thanks for that deep insight. Crikey, I had no idea that there's hell of lot more to Shuttle tankers than just filling up crude and transporting it. On another positive note, it looks like we may be testing Brent $80 today. From a macro viewpoint, the threat of US tariffs leading to an all out global trade war may be lowering with some of the US trade hawks in the Trump administration being sidelined, and that is only good for global growth and the oil demand side of the equation. I wouldn't discount $100 brent from the equation, over the next 6 to 12 months. That would do wonders for ENQ SP. GLTA