The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
@Fardistanthills and others: Truly fascinating development. UK government being very canny here:
1) Recognition that sophisticated production engineering crucial to maintaining supply of sovereign LFTs.
2) Bolster to the rather hapless Derby, who have suffered terribly with the decline of Rolls-Royce.
3) Olive-branch to Toyota, a major UK manufacturer. Provides leverage with the Japanese authorities for future Trade Deals.
4) Signals to me that UK government will back a wide platform of sovereign LFT manufacturers.
5) Could indicate export potential for UK sovereign LFTs. If manufacturing capacity is going to be the major global constraint, why not collaborate with sophisticated foreign manufacturers on licensing basis? The UK is supremely good at genetics/bio and we deserve a share of the consequent global export market for our advanced intellectual property.
Holding very firm. GLA. Keep safe.
Fascinating new development! Never, ever, ever underestimate the Chinese. As you say, @fpvone, they are masters of money. They are proactive with great strategic savvy. You only have to see how they are moving into IRR's Ghanian lithium projects.
I see the Ganfeng/BCN move as a big positive for EMH. It will be most interesting to see how the Germans, whose politics is in the melting pot with Merkel retiring and the Greens on the rise, respond to the Zinnwald deposit. It is a timely reminder to the sometimes befuddled and bureaucratic EU that their really need to get their act together regarding their vital resource security.
One of the specific reasons I bought in early to EMH was the back-up from CEZ and the Czech State, with some political distance from the main hub of the EU, and yet immensely advantageous geography.
EMH in a very, very special position now. All to play for IMO. GLA!
PAH00: Thanks so much. I very much enjoy your mature, balanced insights. I, too, am taking a big-picture view on AVCT. AVCT is my only Covid play, but I regard the Covid aspect as a stepping-stone to some very important advances. I would not be bothering unless AVCT had the extensive platform which Affimer/ pre|CISION offers in other domains.
Thank you again and very best wishes.
Oliver Dowden, Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, has just been interviewed at the World Snooker Tournament at The Crucible Theatre, Sheffield. They are letting in partial crowds at present, but hope to have a full-house for the four sessions of the final over Sunday and Monday. Dowden made several interesting points:
1) All members of the audience are being tested with antigen LFTs prior to admission to the premises.
2) The venue is important as it is a sporting arena and a theatre and is therefore an important testing ground for indoor performance/plays/cinema/musical events.
3) Each member of the audience will be asked to retest five days after attending to measure the contagion that may follow such an event. The retest is not obligatory, but comes with strong encouragement in order to give as comprehensive a survey as possible.
4) On the wider matter of passports, he commented that this was being considered, but maybe reserved for those who are at higher risk.
General impression was that Dowden is smart and capable, but that's just my opinion. In any event, he answered questions directly and without evasion (!!). One hopes that the government would not waste such an opportunity by using the poor Innova tests, but hopefully trialling the high quality sovereign LFTs.
What I find particularly encouraging is that Newland has not had to succumb to massive dilution. This is a measure of his commercial savvy. Pharma/Biotech start-ups take years to develop their products, often with serious dilution. It's worth remembering that a company like Avacta (AVCT) had diluted to over 6 Billion shares and then, in early 2016, did a 100-into-1 consolidation to 68 Million shares and is now at 248 Million shares.
Newland could have gone down a dilution route some years ago when eyeing up the possibility of a large-scale project for pre-natal screening for conditions such as Down's Syndrome. He refused as the costs of setting up such a trial would have run into several tens of millions. Such projects remain possible and would be colossal earners, but only if funded by government/NGO/ mega-cap pharma/biotech.
The potential platform for Parsortix is extensive. Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is the starter-for-ten, with pelvic mass a close second. The current FDA submission is for metastatic breast cancer alone at the moment and extension to other conditions would require further FDA approval, but once FDA approval for MBC is granted, further approvals would follow much more quickly.
At present, AGL has collaborated with hospital/academic institutions for the following conditions:
MBC, Pelvic mass, Colo-rectal cancers, Glioblastoma (brain cancer), Melanoma, Prostate, Small-cell lung cancer, Non Small-cell lung cancer, Head and Neck squamous cell carcinoma, Renal cell carcinoma (kidney cancer). The collaborations include six major US centres; University of Perth, Australia; University of Basel, Switzerland; University of Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany; Hellenic Oncology Research Group, Greece; University of Milan, Italy; University of Birmingham, UK; St. Bart's Hospital, UK.
Impressive, to say the least!
Very encouraging to see this excellent Company beginning its ascent to fair value. Worth noting that Andrew Newland is qualified as both an engineer (University of Cambridge, where his recently deceased father was a Professor) and as a Chartered Accountant. I've met him and he is not only very bright, but an extremely agreeable person. He made it very clear at the 2019 AGM that his target is a market cap of £5Billion and he and his Board have no intention of surrendering to any sort of cheeky premature bid. Newland will be looking to forge partnerships with the US biotech giants such as Abbott, Illumina and Thermo-Fisher all of whom will be watching AGL with great interest and probably envy!
Good luck everybody.
ISATony: Yes, I too await forward looking guidance. For long-term-holds, the prospect of USA sales appeals. I've taken something of a plunge yesterday and today. Have just purchased two tranches of 5,000,000 shares at 0.572 pence. They may show up as sells, but the price looks advantageous and I think we may be at support c. 0.57 pence.
The Market Cap at c. £40M looks very modest in a defensive sector under the Covid cosh, for a Company with accredited products and expanding US-based facilities. Prepared to be very patient with TRX and, yes, possibilities exist for M and A.
Good luck everybody!
Allah4uk: NCYT's failure to obtain a repeat Contract for PCR testing was, for me, a buy signal for the Sovereign LFT companies. Government obviously desperate to get the economy going again. I have argued for several months that the Govt should have put rapid, high-quality testing on a War-footing back in November. Matt H. is not very bright and struggles to hold two complementary strategies in his mind at any one time. These complementary strategies being vaccine roll-out and rapid, high quality testing.
Boris Johnson has made it absolutely clear that a further lockdown would be disastrous from every point-of-view, not least the immense political damage it would cause to the Tories. PCR testing is high quality, but very expensive, cumbersome and takes time. My view is that the Govt would have renewed the NCYT PCR Contract only if there was NO high quality British-made antigen LFT on the immediate horizon.
The fact that AVCT has re-installed its LFT website page is encouraging in itself. Combine that with murmurs from McNulty, technical chartist indications and the announced date of April 22nd for AVCT's results and interactive webinar all look very positive.
My view has always been that BJ will want to grandstand the Sovereign LFTs big-time. It's an opportunity for BJ to celebrate the support the Govt is giving to AVCT in Wetherby and ABDX in York and Doncaster, these being close to the so-called red-wall Labour seats that turned blue last December. I think we will hear some political noises early next week. The Press has been distracted by the sad death of the Duke of Ed, but, with his funeral on Saturday, the decks will clear for big announcements.
AS is absolutely no fool. I believe that AVCT will also be working on a combined Covid/Influenza LTF for roll-out in the Autumn/Winter. An anecdotal story here: my antibodies are tested by the Oxford/ONS testing service every month. My antibodies from natural infection lasted ten months. The greatest risk of a third wave will come late Autumn/Winter when it will become vital to discern Covid vs. Influenza infection. The incidence of Influenza last Winter (2020 into 2021) was very low, implying very low immunity for any forthcoming Influenza infections.
Govt has now got the plot and high quality LFTs will be absolutely crucial. Innova is merely a stop-gap. The proper kit is imminent. Holding strong and very good luck to all. Keep safe.
Krayl49: I have the same dilemma. I'm lucky to be in on TRX at 0.33 pence on my main account, which I will sit on very long term. I have loaded up my ISA with cash and await a moment to begin a position there. I think your time-line of over the next three months sounds very sensible.
As RN1MLT has intimated, there looks to be some support at the 0.57 pence level and I would certainly begin to load up at those levels.
My view is that TRX is VERY undervalued. I wrote out an investment case summary on this board some while ago when the SP was at 0.5 pence. It's since been oddly volatile. News is sparse and there is always the risk that investors get bored and forget the considerable potential here. Lombard Odier has reduced its position by a small margin, but I have watched them on other shares and they duck and dive without any obvious external reason.
Some investors may still be smarting from the cash-call at 0.25 pence and some may fear that the longer the delays in the USA getting back to routine/elective surgery, the higher the chance of a further cash-call. But, the Board seems to have expenditure under tight control.
Routine/elective surgery WILL return. Indeed, there may be an explosive demand to correct the inordinate procrastination of such surgeries, owing to Covid-19. I'm impressed by the width of the platform of TRX's prostheses- these include ligament implants for traumatic knee injury, bone implants including dental and their highly thought-of gynae implants.
I'm a retired medic/surgeon so have a bit of insight into what TRX offers. Please DYOR, but I am quietly optimistic. One day this company will achieve fair value. Good luck everybody.
Once more, so many thanks to the SUPERB posters on this Board. Truly exceptional research and commitment. I, too, have not sold a single share.
Foolsgold2.0: Very best wishes to you. I think several posters have given very wise advice. My own view on investing has matured a great deal over the last 13 years. I've made a lot of mistakes, but have learned a lot. I have chosen just four stocks- AGL, EMH, ITX and TRX- as long-term holds and I follow them all very closely. In each of these cases, the quality of the posters is very high indeed, with ITX being tops.
I have learned that risk management is absolutely key. In one case (EMH), I top sliced, taking out my original stake money and letting the rest ride as a free run. I cannot, therefore, ever lose money on that share.
The risk balance on ITX looks very positive. High profit margin, high growth area, good IP protection (Warren Buffett would call this a moat) and green products very much on trend. Good spread of both consumer discretionary and non-discretionary. Very high quality management. A very good skew towards the USA markets. Some very major names as customers: Croda, Colgate-Palmolive etc.
One of the crucial lessons I have learned is to always leave some cash on the top line. Markets can be volatile. We are in a risk-on phase at the moment, but we may see a seasonal sell-off (quite usual) come mid-May. Personally, I have no intention whatsoever of selling, even in a down-turn, but would use top-line cash to top up if the ITX SP was to retrace to support levels as my conviction is high on ITX. I am not interested in trading ITX on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis as I think the long-term potential is very high.
The two books that I have found most helpful are: 1) James Montier's "The little book of Behavioural Investing" and Anthony Bolton's "Investing against the Tide". The former is very good at exposing one's conflicting emotions in investing.
Anyway, every best possible wish to all you splendid investors in ITX and thanks again for the fabulous input from our devoted researchers.
Goodlooking: Strange that IG platform got difficult. I bought over £10K worth in the closing minutes on my Lloyds platform and could have bought up to 30K more shares at c. £70K. Maybe the IG MMs have sticky fingers and didn't want to give up shares with possible weekend Press coverage/events early next week.
Holding very firmly. AS is no fool and the near/medium term future of AVCT depends very heavily on their LFT success. GLA.
Welcome Cidu and I think many would agree that your brief summary is bang on the money. It's obvious from both the LSE and ADVFN bulletin boards that we have a marvellous investor base who generously give of their time with excellent research in the most polite and helpful way. That's truly exceptional.
I've said it before: great Company, great Board. Thank you all, folks.
Once again, thanks to our superb posters. I hope that the solid, proper investors here are not discouraged by the temporary inflection downwards. The negative side of the Zak Mir Bulletin Board Heroes (two days running) is that we are bound to get the short-term 20% traders moving in and out. I would rather do the Warren Buffett trick of getting rich slowly! One clear point from Mir is that the step-wise chart format, even with long periods of consolidation, together with an unfilled gap through resistance, represents the strongest of situations.
Holding my 3.8 M shares absolutely firmly with no intention whatsoever of getting mugged by short-termism.
GLA and keep safe.
BlahBlack: Conditional Probability Theory stipulates that the overall accuracy is determined by more than the Sensitivity/Specificity.
As Incidence (rate of new cases) and Prevalence (rate of existing active cases) goes DOWN, the overall accuracy goes DOWN.
This is the current trend. This lower overall accuracy can be partially compensated for by repeated testing. Repeat testing can also partially compensate for poor Sensitivity (eg: Innova tests), but AVCT's tests are aiming at very high S and S.
As @mowzerrocks has pointed out, the additional complication with Covid-19 is the desire to pin-point INFECTIOUS individuals. AS is very up-to-speed in this regard. The point is that it is counter-productive to quarantine individuals who show up as positive as a result of having had the primary infection, but who are no longer infectious: ie- it's the remnants of the viral particles (now no longer infectious) in the nasal tract are throwing up the positive. Epidemiologically, this amounts to an overkill.
Just want to say a huge "thank you" to all the superbly well informed posters. Quality company, quality posters. Always intelligent, balanced, well-informed. Gold standard board.
Have been in EMH for nine months now, much encouraged by you all. I cannot thank you enough. GLA and keep safe.
Smith and Nephew reveal their Full-Year figures tomorrow morning. Although their platform of protheses is rather different from TRX's, I will be very interested to hear how S+N view the near/medium-term time-frame as we emerge from the worst of Covid and routine/elective surgery mounts a comeback.
Sustained SP rise looking encouraging. Holding strong for the long-term future for TRX. GLA!
AJP08: Yes, the 400,000 shares was my purchase. So long as there is no major market meltdown, I'm sensing support at 4.9 to 5.0 pence. I remain very, very firmly committed to ITX and would buy further on any weakness.
Many thanks to you, AJP08 and others, for your continued excellent surveillance. GLA and keep safe.