Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Antelope: Well spotted ref CEZ/ESS collaboration on iron/salt water static power storage. I was somewhat concerned about what proportion of the CEZ/EMH Lithium output would have to be committed to static power to iron out the nation's inconsistent power generation from wind/solar. Thank you.
@Fingersxed: Thanks, as always, for your fantastic surveillance. Thanks also to several other posters who, from Czechia, USA and elsewhere, continue to provide excellent fundamental and political coverage.
Jack Lifton (see Fingersxed's link) makes some very stark comments about the automobile OEMs ref the Lithium and Rare Earth Element supply crisis that is unfolding. This is corroborated by the recent interview on CNBC with an experienced market observer who singled out VW/Audi Ag. as being way ahead of its German automobile competitors regarding the securing of vital Lithium supply. Lifton did not even mention the demand that the power-storage industry will exert on Lithium supply.
I am very excited to think that we are entering a whole new phase of global energy husbandry, where Lithium (and other elements) will play a crucial role. Many countries and companies have simply not yet gotten the plot. I launched heavily into EMH over a year ago because I perceived the hugely advantageous positioning of CEZ, with its history of mining and power, and its 70% ownership by the Czech State. Energy management will become a new by-word in politics and I believe we will see increasing tensions between countries within the EU, with some real winners and losers. I fear for Germany with its repulsion of nuclear; I think Slovakia will do well with its links to Serbia and Rio's Borate/Lithium mine. Czechia looks extraordinarily well poised exactly because of its EMH/CEZ Cinovec deposit.
The Chinese are absolutely on the cutting edge here, timing their move (Ganfeng) on Bacanora's Mexican clay deposit (Sonora) just as President Biden is looking to resist USA-based Lithium mining, and leaning towards near-imports from Canada, Mexico, South America.
The G7 Summit will be very interesting and the Glasgow Climate Conference even more so. Thanks again to superb posters and wishing the very best to everyone.
@Energyshares: Very competent investment summary, thanks so much.
My take on AS' skills is that he is an exceptionally bright scientist (former Professor of Molecular Biophysics), together with a very sharp commercial instinct. Your excellent overview demonstrates AS' truly internationalist leanings. He obviously has a great capacity for seeing the BIG picture. I respect the awful suffering that Covid-19 has caused, but it has been a Godsend for AVCT. Significant income from LFT diagnostics would provide a superb financial platform for prospering the several other strings to AVCT's bow.
AS may be learning some harsh lessons about the protracted authorisation procedures required in the development of any diagnostic/therapeutic device/medicinal agent and he's had the additional frustration with the LFTs of bumbling political/bureaucratic issues. His vision is clearly huge and essentially unstoppable. I take great comfort in that vision, intelligence and energy. These are very rare qualities when rolled into one individual. GLA.
@LiveLongnProsper: Yes, I think BBC R4 was definitely worth a listen. The ongoing critique of testing and national testing capacity is beginning to gain traction. The downgrading of Portugal to Amber from Green is also telling.
As I've said before, I think HMG will want to keep up the moral pressure on double vaccination, but BJ, MH may just be getting the plot that Test and Trace has been by far and away the weakest part of the UK's anti-Covid-19 policy. In my opinion, there is absolutely no way that BJ and MH will want to look exposed in both the roll-out of rapid antigen testing and the UK's test-making capacity in the short, medium and long-term.
I believe that we will begin to see a shift in the messaging towards testing as the next few weeks develop. BJ is bright enough to know that sovereign capacity in many areas, from lithium production/energy husbandry to national disease protection will become critical from here. These issues WILL be talked about at the G7 Summit from 11th to 13th June, even if behind closed doors. BJ will not want to frighten the horses, particularly on the former issue, but Covid-19 remains an ever-present threat with national daily incidence figures rising to over 4000 and the normally libertarian/populist BJ looks like he's prepared to impose unpopular measures to contain infection and kick-start the economy.
The next few weeks will be very, very interesting. Holding firm. Good luck everybody!
@Pigster: Yup, Sir Al will be tuning up his Custom Dragster. Rapid Testing Consortium takes on a whole new meaning! The wheels may be spinning, but the tyres are getting sticky and the slicks WILL bite!
Holding on very firmly. In fact, bought a few more. Good luck everybody.
Considerable enthusiasm for EVs in a very recent BBC Business section article:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57253947
@nashwan123: You ask a very good question. Newland sees the role of Parsortix largely for monitoring patients with existing disease, the typing and staging of which have already been done using surgical biopsy. In some cases, the first surgical biopsy is the removal of a small piece, or several small pieces, of the offending tumour. Sometimes this can be done using key-hole surgery or with a fine needle. Another form of surgical biopsy is known as an excision biopsy wherein as much as possible of the offending tumour is removed in open surgery.
The key point is that, very wisely in my view, Newland has oriented Parsortix as a technology for monitoring disease progression/spread in a patient with cancer already proven by surgical biopsy. He does NOT see Parsortix as a screening technique at this point in its development. The virtue of Parsortix for monitoring is that it requires only a blood-draw, rather than repeated traumatic surgical/needle biopsies. This regularly repeated monitoring is important because, as I stated before, tumour genotypes can change within the primary tumour and in any seedlings that spread around.
However, there is an instance where Parsortix could be used as a primary diagnostic tool and that is in instances where a patient presents with symptoms which may suggest what we call an occult tumour, but nothing can be found on the CAT or MRI scans. One has to say that these scanning technologies, particularly MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging), are now of such high definition and clarity that little gets missed.
The possibility of Parsortix for routine screening does exist. In other words, it could be used in patients over a certain age at intervals to identify a latent cancer that has not yet caused symptoms. The two classic cases here are for prostate cancer and colo-rectal cancers. BUT, importantly, screening techniques already exist for these diseases: blood test for Prostatic Specific Antigen (PSA) for prostate disease; testing poo for what is called faecal occult blood for colo-rectal cancers.
For many years to come, I believe that Parsortix will be fully occupied in the monitoring of patients with already proven cancers, rather than routine screening. I mentioned in a previous posting that Newland had considered pre-natal screening for diseases of unborn infants such as Down's Syndrome, but rejected the idea as the costs of mounting a large-scale screening programme would run into many tens of millions. It is to Newland's credit that he has remained very focused on proving the benefits of Parsortix in monitoring patients with known cancers. But who knows: in decades to come, with the advances in genomics, routine screening with Parsortix may occur.
ColdBrew: Your comments are very fair. Quite a lot of our differences are about personal investment style. My preferred choice is for organically growing companies motivated by scientifically very bright, commercially savvy CEOs. I do recognise that Peyton and Stevenson have good form in terms of converting budding biotech/pharmas into take-over targets. I failed to mention the very impressive IP platform, which you rightly pointed out. This is an impressive "moat" to use a Warren Buffett expression.
For me, the risk of converting the anecdotal results of the small numbers of patients in the MRx 0518/Keytruda trial into statistically significant positives in a 120 person trial would weigh on my mind, particularly as the patients all have refractory cancers of five very different kinds. Achieving statistical significance will be challenging.
If I was to consider investing in a major way, I would undoubtedly attend the AGM on Monday, May 24th. In one of my AGM experiences with another biotech company, we grilled the Board for 90 minutes which proved to be a make-or-break encounter.
The podcast on the following day, Tuesday, May 25th, on Blautix and IBS should prove very interesting and informative.
From the T/A point of view, the SP is well below all of the exponential moving averages. The RSI is close to 25 which obviously suggests oversold. Interesting times and I wish everyone good luck.
So very encouraged that ITX is garnering the proper recognition. This is a super Board to be a part of with marvellous contributors. Thanks so much and very best wishes to all Long-Holders.
@Nightmarewalking: May I give a general overview, please? Declared interest-none at present. Invested for brief time in 2020, but, unusually for me, did not become a LTH for reasons below:
My balanced view is that, whilst immune modulation and genomic modulation have demonstrated positive effects in some patients, I await the results of both MRx0518 monotherapy and combined-with-Keytruda in larger patient cohorts. For the latter, a new cohort of 120 patients is proposed who have refractory malignant disease of a very wide variety including renal cell carcinoma, non small-cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, triple negative breast cancer and head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. This will be challenging, but will produce results which can be assessed statistically.
The use of MRx 4DP0004 in asthma and Covid-19 respiratory distress sounds interesting, as do the proposed studies in patients with Parkinson's Disease and the possibility of using Live Biotherapeutics in vaccine development.
The use of Blautix in the distressing condition of Irritable Bowel Syndrome has advanced further than any other programme and has demonstrated positive symptomatic results in single digit to low double-digit percentages among sufferers in a condition which has very few therapeutic options.
I have concerns about the cash-burn and the likely repeated need in the future for cash-calls. The high cash-burn is a function of the very wide, rather unfocused platform of trials, with no serious revenue expected in the near term. I am somewhat concerned with the constitution of the Board, with only one executive director having a full-blown scientific background.
I was drawn to DDDD in the first instance by the strong share-holding of, and the collaboration with, Merck and this stands in their credit. I sold my shares owing to the negatives highlighted above. To me, a stricter focus on IBS would have allowed a much more streamlined company, with much smaller overheads in the first instance. Once revenues obtain from IBS treatments, then the focus could have widened. Fundamentally, I think that Peyton has made the mistake of trying to forge treatments for all manner of little understood conditions- a catch-net in the hope that something good will turn up.
You will understand from my comments on the other Board that a crucial investment case for me must include a CEO who is both highly technically competent and very commercially savvy leading a very focused business. I have no axe whatsoever to grind and all of the above is my opinion only. Good luck everybody.
@researcher1 and others: Andrew Newland has made it very clear that the FDA is supportive. As a witness to the technology in action at Guildford, I can tell you that it is VERY complex and the FDA has every right to demand a fulsome exposition. From a US political point of view, it is well known that President Biden's son Beau died of cancer and Biden will be very aware of the delays in treating cancer patients owing to Covid-19. The FDA will not be obstructive.
Forgive me for repetition, but one of THE aims of the pharma majors is to create a targeting system for its chemotherapies. Putting it crudely, a genetically programmed "missile" that attacks only cells which display very specific genetic anomalies.
One of the relatively recent findings is that any one tumour displays different genetic markers across its mass and these markers may change over time. The whole point is that, as we are finding with the SARS-2 virus, any rapidly reproducing organic molecule WILL mutate and cancers are exactly that- organic tissue that is reproducing at an abnormal rate.
The unique advantage of the Parsortix technology is that it can capture LIVE circulating cancer cells (CTCs) as well as the very destructive cancer cell clusters which are heavily implicated in spreading. These live cancer cells/clusters can be cultured into a mini-tumour in the lab, thus providing a microcosm of the tumour in order to trial chemotherapy agents, including the genetically-coded "missile" agents.
Many tumours are in relatively inaccessible places in the body. Repeated surgical biopsy is traumatic and sometimes dangerous. This is where the very non-invasive quality of Parsortix is such a huge advantage, being a simple blood-draw.
I am impressed not only by the potential of Parsortix, but also by the way Newland and Team have been so focused. They have chosen a sadly common cancerous disease- metastatic breast cancer- as their primary target. Thus they have focused their resources and, thereby, limited the need for constant dilution of the share-base. It is VERY rare to find a professional technologist like Newland (Cambridge engineer) who is also very commercially savvy (qualified chartered accountant).
To give credit where credit is due, the actual inventor of the Parsortix system is George Hvichia, with colleagues David Counts and Gary Evans, so all hail to those splendid engineers.
It is only once in a generation that a serious technology arrives that can be regarded as a major medical advance. I'm thinking here of Dr Ian Donald (inventor of medical ultrasound, 1958), Sir Godfrey Hounsfield (inventor of the CAT-scan, Nobel Prize 1979), and Dr Raymond Damadian and Sir Peter Mansfield (inventors of the MRI-scan, Nobel Prize 2003). In some years time, the creation of genetically targeted chemotherapies will be similarly celebrated with the Nobel and Parsortix will have played a crucial part.
@Nightmarewalking: Thanks for your very polite request from the AGL Board. I had Merck's Keytruda down on my listings as its efficacy profile included squamous cell head and neck cancer ( along with non small-cell lung cancer, melanoma, Hodgkin Lymphoma, urothelial cell carcinoma and renal cell carcinoma!). Please give me a little time to work through the slide presentation on the MRX 0518 neo-adjuvant monotherapy. I will report back. Every good wish.
As always, super posts. I've said repeatedly: Quality Company; Quality Board!
The latest paper on oesophageal cancer is most heartening. It's worth remembering that, whilst metastatic breast cancer and ovarian cancer, the two priorities on AGL's agenda, are notorious for spreading, Parsortix has a proven usefulness in:
Squamous cell head and neck cancer (University of Birmingham, UK).
Glioblastoma brain cancer (University of Basel, Switzerland).
Whilst both these tumours can spread, neither is notorious for so doing.
Of the tumours that notoriously spread to bone (breast, lung, kidney, thyroid, prostate), AGL/Parsortix has academic centres working on all of these except thyroid. Many tumours spread notoriously to the liver and AGL/Parsortix has academic centres working on breast, lung, ovarian, colo-rectal, kidney and melanoma.
To answer a question posed by a poster some days ago about whether AGL/Parsortix will be on the US majors' radar (Illumina, Thermo-Fisher, Abbott), the answer is absolutely yes. AGL has a long-standing collaboration with Abbott already and, with the likely synergies with Grail's product, Grail/Illumina will be watching very closely indeed.
Philips, the Dutch-based high-end medical instrument maker, is collaborating with AGL/Parsortix on integrating results from Parsortix with medical imaging technology.
Pharmaceutical majors will be watching too. Preliminary results from Parsortix have demonstrated that the genetic profile of a single solid tumour may vary considerably across different parts of the tumour. In addition, as a tumour metastasises, its genetic profile may change. The much dreamed-of concept of chemotherapeutic drugs targeting specific genetic profiles within a tumour would require continual monitoring of the genetic status of the tumour/metastases, for which the very non-invasive Parsortix would be revolutionary.
The potential here is colossal and the potential benefit to cancer patients immeasurable. I'm a retired head and neck surgeon and feel very excited by AGL's future. Well, done to the Team at AGL!
SK and Semper Vigilans have been rock solid posters on the ADVFN board for several years.
On the issue of a take-over, Andrew Newland has made it very clear that he is NOT minded to entertain any bids on AGL. He has set a target of a market-cap of c. £5B. This is not irrational. Consider that Illumina, the US giant, announced an $8B deal (then worth £6.2B) to buy out Grail in September, 2020. Grail had no income and were years away from FDA clearance for their liquid biopsy which uses machine-learning algorithms to detect a variety of cancers. At the time, Illumina's CEO, Francis deSouza, stated:
"Early cancer detection is likely to be the largest genomic application over the next 15 years, by far."
This gives some yard-stick for the eventual value of technologies such as Parsortix. This will be an impressive journey for AGL, I think. GLA.
Malik- Thanks very much for your wise and balanced summary of the EMH/ZNWD position. The developing situation with BCN/Ganfeng ref ZNWD is interesting, as is the changing German political landscape. I'm holding 620,000 shares in EMH at below 13 pence having top-sliced to give me a free run. Holding firm and not perturbed at EMH's somewhat lacklustre performance recently. GLA.
So very encouraging to see AGL on its ascent to fair value for a truly remarkable British technology. Have been in here a long time and research has convinced me of Parsortix's massive potential. Have always been impressed with AN.
Well done everybody, particularly the Team in Guildford!
MrAdventurous: The link the ONS has given in the little booklet is:
https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/protocol-and-information-sheets
They also give a contact phone number: 0800 085-6807
I've been fortunate enough to have been on this survey since last Autumn. It's all been very efficient and they post results of the antigen and blood-draw antibody tests to me. For me, it's been useful to know that I must have had Covid-19 infection, probably in March 2020 and even more interesting to note that my antibodies from the infection dropped in about January, 2021- so they stayed up for only about 10 months. I've had my first jab and my antibodies have come back up again. In their letter they state in bold lettering: "Although the vaccines work very well, they do not completely stop people getting the virus again and neither does having had COVID-19 in the past".
The impression I get is that they are trying to widen the survey. Anyway, I hope the link works for you. GLA.
The following may be of some interest:
HMG's official University of Oxford/Office of National Statistics monthly testing survey programme has just issued a new extensive set of pamphlets itemising two major changes to testing technique:
1) Hitherto, antigen testing has been throat, then deep nasal. From next test, throat, then anterior nasal from both nostrils. The specific instruction is: "Gently insert swab just inside your nose and rub around the inside of your nose. Remove swab and repeat in your other nostril."
2) For antibody testing, full blood-draw to be replaced with finger-prick testing with blood going into little bottle, not on to LFD platform. Interestingly, no manufacturer's name given for antigen, but Thermo-Fisher given as named manufacturer of antibody finger-prick test.
Testing using these different methods will require a signed consent form on next visit of professional visitor. Both tests will be carried out by the member of the public themselves with advice, if necessary, available from the professional visitor who will no longer need to enter the person's home. Programme is outlined to extend to April, 2022.
The data package consists of explanatory letter, a detailed A3 sized (could be pinned up on company/school/wherever notice-board) poster explaining and illustrating the technique for the throat/anterior nasal antigen sampling, and booklet giving more information on the ONS infection survey. Package delivered in envelope headed with "On Her Majesty's Service".
There are three limbs to fighting Covid: 1) Lockdown/quarantine 2) Vaccine 3) High quality rapid testing.
Johnson is, by nature, a libertarian. He has already declared a further lockdown to be a disaster. He does not want to confuse and complicate the messaging. Hence, for the time being, he will not grandstand the sovereign testing campaign, until a) The sovereign LFTs have received all appropriate regulatory certification b) Manufacturing capacity is capable of supporting the testing roll-out.
IMO, with the vaccine delivery largely a success, and lockdown set to be cautiously, but permanently, unravelled, the message emphasis will swing towards LFTs. There will be a focus on both regularised testing for access to communal events and the requirement for special localised testing for inevitable local spikes. Throughout, Johnson will be able to lay some responsibility upon the public to take the new, heavily HMG sponsored LFTs seriously.
IMO, the use of poor quality of the Innova LFTs would only leave HMG exposed if the sovereign tests were to prove inadequate. Thus, it is in HMG's interests to await the best possible home-grown tests. Political triumphalism may have to wait a little, but I feel sure there will be some grandstanding of our tests, together with strong encouragement, if not insistence, from HMG that our LFTs form a crucial part of the exit-plan.
AVCT has all to play for, IMO. Find me a brighter, yet also very, very commercially savvy, CEO than AS. A rare combination of talents. GLA.