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Very encouraging progress! The late uplift suggests US buyers. Someone may have got confirmation of the name of the US major who is "white-labelling" TRX's products. We do know it's a top-5 biotech/pharma and if it's J and J, that would make sense.
I hope the new CFO may consider a share consolidation, maybe after publication of results. The logical move is to go for a NASDAQ listing. A consolidation of 100 into 1 would render c. 70 million shares and a consequent SP of 74.5 pence as of today. Spreads would widen and some folk would be perturbed, but it would be a good strategy in my view.
Exciting times for a very undervalued company. GLA and keep safe.
Some of us have been saying for some time that LFT roll-out is mostly about the politics. We are now seeing a bit of micro-nationalism with the SNP claiming a march on BJ. Well, why not, with ODX's Alva plant about to play a significant part in all this.
Despite the apparent delays which some folk, ignorantly in my view, moan about, I believe we are very close to some very significant landmarks in the story. Hold firm folks!! GLA.
A few random comments: The combination of vaccine nationalism, the obvious uncertainties of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the absence of rapid antibody testing and the inadequacies of the Innova antigen tests will put pressure on our government to support:
1) Development and roll-out of sovereign antibody and antigen tests.
2) Establishment of long-term home-grown infectious diseases diagnostics industry.
3) For (2), ensuring adequate supply of necessary reagents so there's no dependence on foreign powers.
Belatedly, the government is now braced for a number of contingencies. Gone is the sense of complacency and entitlement. The above will be played out in a political way with appropriate triumphalism in the future, timed to co-incide with announcements of gradual lockdown release and self-congratulatory talk about the AZN vaccine roll-out.
In my view, ODX, AVCT and ABDX will sell everything they can make. A little bit of patience here will pay dividends. GLA and keep safe.
RobinTrader and AgentB: You make a very good point about anti-viral nasal sprays. I have performed the deep naso-pharyngeal test on myself seven times now and it's ghastly. The test site is going to be a compromise. The crucial point is that folk will need to tolerate REPEAT tests. The BMJ and several other professional papers have made this point. Even if the Sensitivity of LFTs falls someway short of PCR (explains why the govt is plugging on with the Innova tests until the sovereign tests are available), repeated testing is the way through this. This is true on a mathematical basis (Bayesian Conditional Probability Theory) and in terms of rapidly identifying infectious individuals and then being able to release those folk once they come non-infectious. Rapid, easily tolerated antigen LFTs is the crucial "other arm" of the exit strategy, vaccine roll-out being already in play.
The government will want to keep the messages simple: rub the inside of your nose for testing whether you're infectious; finger-prick test for testing whether you've had Covid-19 in the past.
Just an afterthought: I think the reasons that the government has pushed for extending the interval between the two AZN inoculations from 3 to 12 weeks include:
1) More people can be at the very least partly protected with one jab to speed up roll-out.
2) Gives more time if AZN needs to tweak the vaccine to accommodate mutations.
3) Gives time for the sovereign LFT makers to begin their roll-out.
4) Gives more time for the LFT makers to tweak their tests to accommodate mutations.
5) Gives more time to assemble some sort of crucial data-collecting mechanism.
GLA and keep safe.
Doze: Yes, I think AS got rather distracted by the potential collaboration with Cytiva. We have to remember that, prior to Covid-19, AVCT's very promising technologies were grossly neglected. AS gave up a professorship in molecular physics to start AVCT and, as you say, RobinTrader, he's watched AVCT's share-base being massively diluted (6.7 Billion shares in early 2016, consolidated 100 into 1 to give 67 million, then diluted since to about 250 million). AS saw his main chance with a tie-up with a very significant US major, Danaher/Cytiva, with all that could mean for the Company in the longer-term future. AS got distracted by the immense potential and lost sight of the down-to-earth realities. Totally understandable. AS knows that an engagement with a US major is THE dream ticket and a NASDAQ listing would boost the SP to probably several billion $ if Affimer technology gains serious traction.
I don't want to be judgemental, but the reality is that not everybody can afford to be completely responsible. As the BMJ paper states: "Rapid tests provide opportunities for early detection and isolation, but must be integrated into wider strategies to control transmission." The critical issue is identifying INFECTIOUS individuals. If these spreaders are asymptomatic and, in some younger cohorts, unlikely to be seriously affected by the disease, we are bound to get some element of evasion/non-compliance- it's human nature. The BMJ paper demands proper economic support for those isolated and suggests an acronym: "SMART", as follows:
Systematic
Meaningful
Asymptomatic
Repeated
Testing
Only my opinion, but AVCT has all to play for with its antigen LFTs and very much besides in the longer future. GLA.
Radiagreen: I agree with your thoughts about the AVCT saliva test. AS's sheer frustration was visible in one of the interviews he gave. I don't think this just fatuous politics from the government's point of view. My bet is that the government had sought advice from the human behaviourists and the epidemiologists. Their conclusion was that saliva LFTs are rather messy and complicated to perform if done by ordinary folk, with plenty of room for inaccuracy. There's also the issue of the potential contamination through clumsy disposal of the little funnel/test-tube etc. There's also the issue that you could easily scam a saliva test by swilling mouth-wash before a test. The government has belatedly realised that the lockdown distress felt by some folk, and the human capacity for evasion and duplicity, required a test formula which was easy to execute, people didn't mind frequently repeated tests, and was difficult to scam.
I think that AS's frustration was that his Team had ploughed a huge amount of time into saliva, which was then counter-manded by government advice. At no point have I detected any slippage in AS's confidence in AVCT's essential process, but the shift to anterior nasal meant a substantial rejigging of the methods of use. The government is desperate to keep things simple and reproducible with very clear messaging. AVCT has all to play for in my view. GLA and keep safe.
AJP08: Just wanted to thank you once again for your absolutely first class posts. Balanced, well-informed, competent and comprehensive. Holding absolutely firm here and looking towards a very interesting long-term future.
John Shaw's decisive move to recruit Mona Manning and Helen Cane tells me that investment now in the fields of marketing and operations will bear fruit. He will be expecting them both to add considerable value to the Company's revenue. GLA and keep safe.
DaddyPig: Superb post! Thanks so very much. Balanced, competent, comprehensive and well written. A real treat.
A few random comments: Most intelligent people realise that the government has been caught appallingly short on the whole issue of rapid testing owing to the sleazy, ignorant incompetence of Dido Harding et al. The re-jigging of contracts for rapid testing to a dynamic, responsive basis tells me that BJ and MH have finally got the plot that the LFT roll-out is demonstrably lagging the impressive vaccine roll-out. In my view, Abingdon, Avacta and Omega will sell everything they can manufacture.
Looking to the further-out political landscape, the Tories will have their work cut out keeping faith with the former Labour voters of the so called red-wall seats. It will not be lost on BJ that Avacta has a plant in Wetherby and that Abingdon has plants in both York and Doncaster.
Avacta visibly expanding its Affimer platform into diagnostics and therapeutics of both infectious diseases and cancer. It will become a force to be reckoned with. Holding absolutely firm and prepared to be very, very patient. GLA and keep safe.
patienceiskey: May I direct you to the FY results published as an RNS on October 28th, 2020. It's well worth a read and may, I hope, allay some of your anxieties. Cash at 30/6/20 was $0.5M, bolstered by the cash-call in July of $2.2M. John Shaw confirmed in the recent interim RNS that expectations were slightly above expectations, and you will see from the 28/10/20 RNS that both margins and revenue are on a significant upward trajectory.
I would not be invested here if ITX was a "blue-sky" outfit. With their solid repeatable customer orders, increasing product-line, increased margins and CAGR, I do believe that, should a further cash-call be required, the market would be enthusiastic and supportive. Yes, that would mean dilution, but would not, I think, lead to any long-term SP inflection downwards. On the contrary, competent growing companies aligned with the trend for sustainability may well find their SP bolstered by a cash-call. Thus, I do not perceive the threat of a further cash-call as a downside risk. Purely my own opinion and please DYOR. Good luck everybody and keep safe.
AJP08: Always appreciate your input. I was a little bit early to the party, but I know how difficult it can be to buy ITX when it's in an uplift. I was foolish trying to compete with the MMs, buying when they had not finished tempting folk into selling in the downdraft from 8 to just under 5 pence. Yes, I certainly have a feeling they have filled an order. The most recent RNS was underwhelmingly worded, but I cannot hide my enthusiasm for this excellent Company.
With the Board now complemented by Mona Manning and Helen Cane, impressive product development, high margins and enviable CAGR, I can see a possible dividend flow in a couple of years time. Now holding 3 million shares and no intention whatsoever of selling. Demonstrable support at c. 4.85 pence and would certainly add further if any weakness below that.
Many thanks to all the truly first class posters who make this board such a pleasure to read. Very best possible wishes to all.
Flowkey41: Great to see you join the investors of TRX. It's had a turbulent past with some management dysfunction and a financial over-commitment in its purchase of the CellRight Company. Cash-calls prior to the most recent were heavily supported by Neil Woodford. His demise and inability to continue support lead to the most recent cash-call at 0.25 pence, which was very controversial and left a great number of very decent LTH underwater. Despite predictions to the contrary, the SP bottomed out at about 0.30 pence.
TRX already has revenue from its innovative surgical and dental prostheses. The spectrum of implant applications is impressive, ranging from porcine implants to replace ruptured knee ligaments, to bone scaffolds used in orthopaedics/dental, to decellularised (DNA removed so no rejection) tissue implants used in the gynaecological field. The last mentioned has had a particularly positive response from surgeons and patients owing to previous (non-TRX) synthetic meshes causing all manner of problems and consequent law-suits.
Its main facility is in San Antonio, Texas, and this has been remodelled to provide adequate clean-rooms to meet demand. Indeed, prior to the Covid-19 crisis, demand was outstripping supply and there was a shortage of donors.
The Company has good IP protection and FDA approval for several of its products. Some months ago, TRX announced that it had engaged with a top pharma/biotech who wished to "white-label" certain of TRX's products. Rumour has it that this may be Johnson and Johnson, but this remains unconfirmed. Recent installation of new Finance Director sounds encouraging.
On the risk side, Covid-19 has obviously had a huge negative impact on elective surgery. I understand that the BOD has managed to contain overheads with a degree of furlough and US Treasury support. We await with interest any financial interims as these would provide important fundamental data.
I am watching the SP carefully. We appear to have consolidated at about the 0.5 pence level. I think you will find that, like ITX, we have a very decent and polite bulletin board with several stalwarts who are supportive and well informed. I regard TRX as a decent long-hold with considerable potential. Very best wishes.
Nice to see the SP beginning to creep up. Tin prices at multi-year high; Tesla reports to market next week; China in renewed lockdown (where much of the world's Lithium processing takes place). EMH a very firm hold in my view. GLA.
Just bought a further 600,000 shares at 6.34 pence and 6.375 pence in tranches of 300,000, 200,000 and 100,000. Lots of little MM sells at 6.00 pence, with a few buys at 6.4 pence.
MMs have widened the nominal spread, as they do. They can dictate the buy/sell price within the quoted spread. A real sell is 6.23 pence, and a real buy is 6.34/6.375 pence. Interesting little games!
Flowkey41: Yes, the buys/sells are not reliably shown. The spread is quite wide at the moment: 6.39 pence to buy; 6.23 to sell.
Perfectly ready to buy more. Looks like that c.800,000 at 6.3 pence was a buy after hours last night. MMs may well be trying to fill an order. Well, they're certainly not having any of mine!!
AJP08; In-long; RoyRoy; Thordon; Flowkey41; Chilting and others: Thanks so much for your incredibly honest insights. Truly celebrate the exceptional quality of your posts.
I totally agree that we have seen a carefully choreographed tree-shake to wash-out weak hands. Spotted it late Tuesday when the SP ended up irrationally at 8 pence when the last major purchase had been at 7.6 pence. Wednesday morning the perceived drop spooked some folk and then momentum downwards took over. These are clever Market Maker games. Bounced off 5.9 pence today. Absolutely holding firm and refuse to be "played" by these characters.
Interested to hear comments about possible dividend eventually and Shaw's awareness of LTH loyalty in pulling this excellent company back from the brink. To me, there is every sign that a major turn-around is in action from a fundamental point-of-view. GLA and keep safe.
Serendipidity: I calculate things on a strict risk assessment basis. I've got just over £100K on EMH with 800,000 shares at just under 13 pence. Of course ZNWD may do fine. The EU will be desperately short of Lithium and the five locations identified within the EU may all come into play. These are: EMH/Cinovec; ZNWD and their adjacent, but much smaller, deposit on the German side; SAV and their Portugese open-cast mine; Vulcan and their geo-thermal brine deposit in the Rhine Valley in Germany; Rio Tinto's Borate deposit in Serbia.
It is reckoned that the EU will need 360,000 tons of LCE by 2030. The EU commissariat wants to be self-sufficient, but it has already stipulated tight environmental conditions. By Jan 1st, 2026 all Lithium batteries will have to bear a carbon intensity performance class label and, by July 1st, 2027, all batteries will have to comply with maximum carbon footprint thresholds. The EU has stated that it will ban batteries not meeting these regulations.
On these criteria, both EMH and ZNWD will probably pass muster. EMH has a very considerable risk advantage in my view in that the CAPEX of c. Euro400M will be earned back quickly with its easy to mine, albeit low-grade, large deposit producing c.50,000 tons of LCE p.a. There is a long-standing mining tradition and public support from the folk of Cinovec. CEZ (51% owner) is a very capable mining/power company, itself 70% owned by the Czech State. SMS, the German mining consultancy, is already engaged to provide guarantees ref. CAPEX and flow-sheets.
I think it is perfectly possible that there will be many synergies between EMH's and ZNWD's projects. ZNWD's CEO, Anton du Plessis, is an experienced mining guy with good contacts among global Banks and he has the well reputed Freiburg-im-Breisgau mining college staff on side. ZNWD's CAPEX is estimated at Euro 200M. So, I'm not discounting ZNWD, but I do believe in rational, measured evaluation and my preference is decidedly for EMH. I do wish everyone good luck, whomever you're invested in.
Iaintittle: Well, quite!! I have actually sold my ZNWD shares because I believe in fundamental analysis and their SP is now out of kilter, even as a speculation. I do not want to look like an aggrieved deramper of ZNWD, but I realise that Lithium is now a hot space, driven by sentiment.
Buzz_Lightyear: It was at the 2019 AGM that Newland mentioned the radio-frequency (RF) chip that the FDA had insisted upon in order to exclude rogue cassettes. It is the cassettes that AGL will make much of their money on, so it's in everybody's interests to bolt that feature down.
Thank you for reminding me about the gent in the audience who represented a local Guildford company whose speciality is to compact and transmit very high definition data. Were you there at the AGM? The Board was not expecting to be grilled for about 90 minutes on all aspects of AGL and Parsortix!
Just ruffling through notes since then, I have come across some interesting comments from Dr Melanie Janning from December, 2019. I had forgotten that, not only do different parts of the same tumour have different genetic profiles, but that the phenotype of the tumour may change during treatment, and, indeed, may change when spread (metastasis) occurs. This is very difficult to assay with surgical biopsy, but much easier, less invasive and cheaper to do with sequenced liquid biopsies. She put the advantages of Parsortix in a nutshell:
1) Improved tailoring of personalised cancer care.
2) Better patient stratification- this means evaluating the staging/typology of the cancer pre-, during, and post-treatment.
3) Better outcomes for patients.
4) Improved cost effectiveness.
This is why Parsortix has the capacity to be transformational in cancer care. GLA and keep safe.
Isap: Welcome aboard! I think you can tell that this board has some superb posters who are intelligent, balanced and exceptionally well informed. It's a great and rare treat that there are such decent contributors.
For my penny-worth, and having noted such impressive product expansion, most recently with Croda, I regard ITX as a long hold and I am not tempted to top-slice any time soon. That may be a mistake, but I note that Croda recently executed a major Rights Issue (issuing shares at a discount) to raise several hundred million £ in order to make a bid to take over Iberchem. As I have said before, a very mature business like Croda may need to acquire companies to maintain a good growth pathway. Croda will not be the only chemical major eyeing up ITX.
In addition to its impressive product development, ITX has a very smart CEO and Board of Directors, which is absolutely crucial to success. A quality person like Helen Cane would not be tempted to join if she did not see great opportunity. It has a degree of intellectual property protection with its Patents and it operates very much in the consumer staple (needs-must rather than discretionary) space.
So, although I do believe that ITX has the potential to achieve an eventual Market Cap of something in the region of £400 Million (an SP of about £1.00), I believe it will be taken out long before that by one of the big boys. If ITX was on the full Nasdaq Exchange, it would be running at a much, much higher valuation. CNBC recently did a survey of millionaire US investors and many of them were very positive about rotation not only towards the sustainability space, but keen to look to overseas-quoted stocks.
You will make your own decisions about how to handle your exposure to ITX and the posters here have already given very, very wise advice. Best of luck to all!