The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Fingersxed and others: Thanks so very much for your excellent comments and research links- incredibly helpful !
I am staggered that EMH is so under-the-radar. To me, the perfect storm is building in EMH's favour and the consummation of the recent deal could not have been better timed. OEMs now very wary of extended supply-chains; China facing economic recriminations from the West; Germany, the EU paymaster, desperate to support its "badge-of-pride" motor manufacturers- VW-Audi AG, Mercedes-Benz, BMW; EU support for EVs.
I have struggled to find a speculative mining share that is now so de-risked. Yes, I absolutely agree that the SP is absurdly undervalued. I sense from recent price-action that some weak-holders have left. I still recognise the danger that any spikes may be sold into, but only because some very long-holders are underwater.
There is an additional understated dimension to lithium usage and that is for large-scale energy storage from renewables-hydro/solar/wind. I sense that we are at the beginning of something very, very interesting. Thanks again and good luck to all.
Barnetpeter: There is no primary overhang from the cash-call as the institutions oversubscribed. The overhang from the Woodford/Link Fund has always been a problem. We will only find out whether Link Fund has subscribed when the new shares are issued and we are informed by RNS. If Link has not subscribed, then their 20% will be heavily diluted and Link may well choose now to sell. If Link has subscribed, they may well jettison their existing shares now. Either way, there may be a distinct downdraft in SP and we would be informed by RNS prior to the accession of the new shares on June 10th. That's going to be worth looking out for.
I don't think that costs of the PrimaryBid purchase are a big issue. My costs were approx one tenth of 1%.
From a personal point of view, TRX is speculative. Speculation is about calibrating a future. Many companies on AIM such as the small oilers, miners and many a small bio-tech/pharma have no revenues. TRX is not in that position. They have approved products in current manufacture and a decent footprint in the USA. Yes, I would criticise the former management for woeful miscalculations which has led to their parlous position with heavy reliance on expensive debt. The current Board has restructured debt, which I believe currently stands at about $2M. With the cash-call, TRX may still be able to call upon the MidCap Tranche 2 and 3, if required.
Thus to me, the cash-call, albeit draconian, has derisked the business for the next 12 to 18 months. Although I accept that routine surgery in the West is constrained by the concentration on Covid-19, the surgeons involved will be putting pressure on their hospitals to facilitate very important procedures that have been delayed. I am encouraged that a Top-10 healthcare company has engaged with TRX very recently. I am encouraged that Jonathan Glenn will be at the helm.
To me, the near-term SP may look like a hazard. I think I can look through that. I am not here to trade. I am sufficiently content with the prospects after taking what I hope is a balanced view. I am a retired medic with a qualification from the Royal College of Surgeons and I rest my case. I will be sad if things turn sour because I very much want a decent British bio-tech to do well, particularly as its products are innovative and many patients will benefit.
Obviously all in my opinion only. Please DYOR. Stay safe and well in these very difficult times.
TheOldBee- Always appreciate your very gentlemanly posts. No, I didn't sell any of my existing shares. I was lucky enough to buy quite a few with PrimaryBid and I have just confirmed with my platform, Lloyds, that the shares will be transferred to me on Wednesday, June 10th. And, no, I will not be selling any of those for a quick buck.
There have to be reasons why the Board executed the cash-call in the manner they did. Could it be that the Board wished to dilute the prior hazard of the Woodford/now Link Fund 20% overhang ?
Yes, it is obvious now that the prior Board became complacent that Woodford would always be there to ride to the rescue and, when his support collapsed, the Company became overstretched. The Board looks to be a different animal now and I have confidence that Jonathan Glenn can turn this Company round.
Other posters have mooted the eventual possibility of a share consolidation. It was interesting to me to discover that the now exuberant Avacta undertook a 100-into-1 consolidation in January, 2016, converting their 6.7 Billion shares into 67 Million. Avacta have had no serious revenue for years, quite unlike TRX which is generating cash.
TRX's investors have gone through a fiery trial, but I do believe that there are sunnier uplands in view. I will endure whatever
ups and downs are ahead of us. Indeed, if there are cheap entry points, I will top up my ISA. I am not smart enough to keep a check on umpteen different shares. I have four primary long-term holdings and TRX is one of them. I am not interested in froth, I prefer to look for platform technology, good quality management, budgetary sustainability and preferably a footprint in the USA.
Many thanks to all the decent posters here. Every best wish to all and please keep safe in these very difficult times.
All the above in my opinion only; please DYOR.
Riddler and Alexa: Would like to thank you and others for being the "Constant Gardeners" on DMTR over the last several weeks. I've made quite a considerable investment here, averaging down in a pound-cost-averaging sort of way in the last ten days. As Alexa has eloquently argued, there is a moat for DMTR in that they are ahead in the game and those intensive algorithmic constructs take enormous brainpower and commitment. She follows that argument by stating that, in her considerable experience in another field of AI, the eventual savings in manpower hours is colossal. Great to have collaborations with AZN and GSK, amongst others.
I have watched Richard Griffiths' investments now for nearly ten years. He has reduced a little in DMTR recently, but still has the second largest II holding after IP Group. He has done very well indeed with Silence Therapeutics and e-Therapeutics. He was a large shareholder in Four-D Pharma, but I think has pulled down considerably in recent weeks. I think he still hold a major position in Circassia Pharma. Some of these are legacies from Neil Woodford's withdrawal. Two of his up-to-recently poor holdings, Plant Health Care and Nanoco Technologies, have blipped-up in the last few days. He's a smart guy and tends to be followed into particular investments by Lombard Odier Asset Management.
Looking forward to tomorrow ! GLA and thanks.