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Unvrkw- wise words indeed ! Please folks, be under no illusion that this virus is anything like beaten. We have the paradox of the hot Southern US States and Wintertime in South Africa, both with large spikes. In my small world, two friends have died and I heard today of another, an otherwise healthy lady in her 50s, who has now developed recurring post-Covid-19 problems with her heart and kidneys. This is a very ugly disease, never to be taken lightly.
The virus has brought the world economy to a near standstill. I understand some folk's scepticism about a rushed-through vaccine, but there are numerous vaccines in advanced states of preparation and even trials, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine being one example. I believe that antibody testing should happen on a large scale globally wherever we get to with a vaccine. Remember that the uncertainty about the length of time a person can sustain immunity either from having been infected or post-vaccination will demand repeated testing. It is quite likely that vaccination may require booster re-vaccination, but we can only know this if antibody testing is repeated at certain intervals. Interesting to note that in the poorer parts of New York City, antibody testing demonstrated positives in over 50%, but is that immunity long-lasting ? Those folk will need to be retested at 6-monthly intervals if we are going to be at all rational about it, with or without a vaccine. Remember that about 50% of common-cold viruses are Coronaviruses and we know that neither B-Cell nor T-Cell-given immunity lasts very long for the common cold.
It is possible that certain very major political administrations may live or die depending on how they engage with mass testing for their beleaguered populations. Complacency/denial/obfuscation could be very costly indeed politically. We are just on the cusp of very high quality, rapid, convenient testing for both antibodies and antigen. Very soon, no government will have any excuse whatsoever. The cost is a tiny fraction of the economic collateral damage of the virus/lockdown. I just hope to God that governments gather some wisdom and seize the moment for everybody's sake. Please keep safe !
Chester18- Totally agree with you about holding tight.
MIKODX- I said several weeks ago when Richard Griffiths was revealed as a new investor that Lombard Odier often follow his lead. It appears that they are following up with further purchases. That's very encouraging. Price action here does look rather strange given LOAM's increased holding and that there has been considerable publicity very recently that the traditional gynaecological surgical mesh has caused much anguish in many patients, whereas TRX's alternative is well thought of by both surgeons and patients alike.
There was much talk on this board and elsewhere that the SP might well fall to, or even lower than, the 0.25 pence cash-call price. Well, I think the closest it got to was just under 0.31 pence, which is itself encouraging considering that both AVCT and ODX, two of the popular Covid-19 plays, have gone under their respective cash-call prices of £1.20 and 40 pence, respectively.
Covid-19 is going against TRX at the moment owing to the delays in hospitals getting back to treating patients with non-Covid-19 conditions. Investors may have additional anxieties about TRX's San Antonio facility in view of Texas being very hard hit with new Covid-19 cases. I regard these issues as temporary and I remain enthusiastic about TRX's prospects and TRX's market cap as very undervalued. I haven't sold a single share since the PrimaryBid offer and would buy more if the SP veers anything close to 0.30 pence. All in my opinion only. Good luck all. Keep safe !
Awax: Totally agree ! But, some folk get bored; some find an opportunity elsewhere (ODX and EUA have apparently been sprightly); some need the reassurance of regular RNSs. There is so much going on at quite major European State level and the worm is turning on the Lithium market that I am totally happy to just sit this out. Any further weakness and I'd buy more.
I understand that Tesla's Gigafactory near Berlin is now above foundation level. I'm intrigued to see where USA/EU commercial/political relationship with China goes from here. I'm watching the Sino-Australian relationship, too. These are the big tectonic plates in all this. On a general market note, it is gratifying that British-quoted AIM stocks, having languished at very undervalued levels, are now in something of a spotlight. There are bargain-hunters out there and I think that, if something very positive was to visibly happen for EMH, the SP would move very aggressively. All in my opinion only. GLA!
Antelope: Thanks very much for your link to the Bloomberg Green article. A couple of quotes from the article:
"Citigroup analysts now expect battery-grade Lithium prices to surge by about 42% in 2022 from current levels thanks to 'rising conviction' on EV demand from the new Chinese and European EV incentives as well as accelerating rationalization in supply."
"Germany's 130 Billion Euro recovery budget allocates about 41 Billion Euro to areas like public transport, electric vehicles and renewable energy. France announced its own 8 Billion Euro stimulus package for the auto industry, focusing heavily on the domestic EV supply chain."
Also, interesting to see Tesla (TSLA- Nasdaq) share-price action in the last ten days: Friday, 26/6: $959.74; at close today, Tuesday, 7/7: $1389.86. This action crowns a YTD rise from $430.26 on January 2nd. Sounds like the smart money is getting the plot !
Dartron: A very nice summary, thank you very much. I think you will already know that we have several truly excellent "spotters" on this board who maintain an amazing vigil and quote very helpful links. I remain deeply indebted to Fingers, Sid and others. This board is, almost uniquely, always polite and very informative, which is a great encourager in itself. I do hope you may feel able to share your further insights and expertise. Thanks so much to all.
Fingers: As always, you are a real star ! Thank you. Your link goes someway beyond analysts' commentary and gives us some details of some actual investment. Very interesting that Inobat Auto's proposed new EV-battery R+D facility and production line in Slovakia has attracted a 10M Euro loan (possibly convertible into shares) from CEZ, a pledge of 5M Euro from the Slovakian government and the European Investment Bank (EIB) is also considering a loan.
Rather tantalizing that Pavel Cyrani, vice-chairman of the CEZ Board, states that the governments of the Czech Republic and Slovakia have a partnership in electromobility. Also, Mr Cyrani suggests that CEZ may be interested in a possible project of a Gigafactory in the Czech Republic. So, it sounds like CEZ, which is an industrial investment arm of the Czech State, is happy to collaborate with, and invest in, specialist companies like EMH and Inobat Auto to create a vertically integrated platform. It does seem important that at least two European governments and the EIB are motivated to form strategic alliances. Time will tell !
RoxburyHouse: A few calm thoughts:
1) From a European perspective, known spikes in new cases in Leicester, UK, and Catalonia, Spain.
2) From a global perspective, known spikes in new cases in all of: Florida, Texas, California, USA; Brazil; India; Mexico; Peru; Chile; South Africa.
3) From a genetic perspective, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is known to have mutated at least once (D614G mutation) wherein the mutated virus has more spikes and these spikes are more rigid which makes the virus more efficient at invading the host-cell.
4) From the historical perspective, the 1918/19 Pandemic (caused by an H1N1 virus) had three waves: a) March to August 1918. b) September to December 1918. c) January to March 1919. The second of these was by far the most destructive and included a drastic worsening of the symptoms. The new symptoms included very rapid respiratory collapse and haemorrhage. Migration/demob towards the end of the War considered a major factor.
Personal opinion is that it would seem deeply unintelligent to be complacent. This is a disease we still know very little about. The scientific community is doing its utmost to understand more and, for that, scientists will require high-grade data gathered from large populations and preferably with repeat testing.
Background: retired medic/surgeon. DYOR. Keep safe.
Greenmachine and Sid- Taking a leaf out of the very intelligent Henry Ford book. He understood the huge virtue of vertical integration to the extent that he bought up rubber plantations to secure the supply for his tyres. I, like you Sid, am very bullish on EMH and I'm prepared to be very, very patient. I imagine CEZ will be very smart and they will wait for the plot to thicken with more than one major EV manufacturer banging on their door. A take-off auction could get very exciting indeed!
The German mind-set tends to be conservative and they've been johnny-come-lately with both Hybrids (Toyota have been building Hybrids for well over twenty years) and full EVs (Nissan et al). Elon Musk is the gadfly-in-the-ointment here and his influence is already truly disruptive. It is amazing how his bullish futurism is converting the gas-guzzling mentality of the Americans. A Joe Biden presidency could accelerate that. In any event, the EU is absolutely committed to addressing climate change and a significant Lithium deposit on EU soil will come to be viewed as a vital strategic resource. German political leadership is strong and Angela Merkel has the distinct advantage of holding a doctorate in Quantum Chemistry, so she is scientifically very savvy indeed. Good luck everybody !
Upomega: Remember that you are a CONSTANT GARDENER. There's not many that can claim that title. Be amongst the best and stand proud that, despite the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune (quote from Shakespeare), you remain true to yourself and what you believe in.
Upomega: I think you would be surprised to know how many private investors are still supportive of Omega. We're all having to learn to take the rough with the smooth in this very short-term turbulence. Unvrkw's words are wise, as are several others, including the immensely calm and well informed like NXC on the other board. Omega is in the best position it's been for a very long time. Warren Buffett reminds us that patience is the key: the ability to ignore the day-to-day tumble and reach out to an horizon. Moreover, Omega is an utterly ethical investment. The World will benefit in untold ways from Omega's expertise across its wide platform. Keep safe and don't let any b@stards grind you down !
Fingers, Sid, Antelope and others: It looks like Morgan Stanley have joined J.P. Morgan and others in the the quiet chorus:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Lithium-Prices-Are-Set-To-Rally.html
This gleaned from foree on the Bacanora (BCN) board, with thanks.
TGoodland: No competent scientist would, on present incomplete information, claim "Antibody doesn't really show anything".
PDMSPiper: Thank you for highlighting the scientific paper which goes some way to explaining just how incomplete our knowledge is. Any dedicated immunologist/virologist/epidemiologist would be very keen to amass much more data to help clarify the complex issue of antibody emergence/durability of antibodies/extent of protection of antibodies.
Let's put antibodies into context: The Acquire Immune System (AIS) developed in early vertebrates and consists of two fundamental processes:
1) The B Cells act in the Humoral Response. The B Cells carry antigen-specific receptors which are antibody molecules on their surface. These recognise whole pathogens without the need for antigen processing.
2) The T Cells rely on an intermediate, the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), which bind to antigen fragments and then display them to the T Cells.
Thus, antibodies are not the whole story and it is interesting that some early work may suggest that, in younger people in particular, the T Cell response to SARS-CoV-2 may be an important component of the body's immune response.
Amassing high quality data on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 will be absolutely crucial in any preparation and roll-out of a vaccine. Vaccines have been immensely successful in providing long-term protection against a number of viral illnesses: smallpox (now extinct), mumps, measles, rubella, polio, some varieties of hepatitis, etc. Some of these vaccinations require boosters, some not. It is true to say that no vaccine has ever been developed against a strain of Coronavirus, but previous epidemics of C-virus have been thankfully short-lived (SARS-CoV-1; MERS), although with higher mortality (SARS-CoV-1 approx 10%; MERS approx 34%).
There is no essential reason why a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 cannot be developed and there are several major global efforts at present to create such a vaccine, including the GlaxoSmithKlein/Sanofi and the Astrazeneca/University of Oxford collaborations. To repeat, any development/roll-out of vaccines will require extensive and repeated testing for antibodies. If the durability of the antibodies is found to be quite short-lived, then the need for repeated testing increases considerably.
From a mathematical/statistical point-of-view, the highest validity for data will require the highest quality testing, the largest possible sample size (whole populations ideal) and repeated testing. The scientific community understands this perfectly well, whatever the incomplete/incorrect information put about by ignorant media.
We have to add in to this very complicated situation the probability of further mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It has already mutated once (known as the D614G mutation) and may do so again, possibly several times.
Furthermore, as we approach Autumn/Winter, there is a likelihood of other viruses contaminating t
CW25- I don't follow the antigen-testing market very closely. Great to know that ODX are moving into the antigen space, but very early days.
B1ll- Totally agree with you about the app. Even in the very disciplined society of Singapore, compliance with their app proved paltry.
I have followed the antibody-test market closely exactly because, epidemiologically, antibody testing can provide a much more useful platform of data, both for the here-and-now and, more importantly, for the future. There are important issues here regarding gender, race, age and co-morbidities which extensive and repeated antibody testing can help to illuminate. Such a platform of comprehensive data is the only way forward if a vaccine is to be rolled out.
CW25- You may care to have a look at my thoughts in my post under the thread title "PM Speech Tues 30th" at 16.05 today.
My view is that any Rapid Consortium/ODX announcement will be timed in collusion with the government. Johnson may want to "scoop" this for himself (he's a journalist by trade!!) without any prior mention elsewhere. My guess is that Colin King will feel a bit chastened by the speeding ticket and he will play along with government directives. It's anybody's guess when the DF announcement by ODX will be made, but the politics on all this is likely to trump everything.
Any coherent and intelligent Test and Trace programme will need both rapid antigen and antibody testing. Hitherto, the problem with Test and Trace has been the delay in reporting results. To be effective, results need to be reported within 48 hours, better still 24 hours. Long delays, particularly for antigen testing, are patently absurd.
The Government should get the message that some folk are going stir-crazy (see Bournemouth invasion). Rapid POC antibody testing would give some reassurance to those that have already mounted an antibody response. Folk might get mighty pi**ed off if they are quarantined because of contact with an infected person, only to find out later that they have some degree of immunity. Government walking a tight-rope here, but trust and faith in the system crucial to inspire compliance, otherwise it's more anger, frustration and then anarchy. Exactly why I think Johnson's message on Tuesday needs to be very strong and essentially positive about a road-map to come through all this.
Not willfully ramping, just a few thoughts. I'm becoming more convinced that the planets are aligning very nicely for ODX and for other testing companies. Ref ODX in particular:
1) RNS of June 3rd specifically states that DF will be announced to market (Paul McManus of Walbrook PR concurs) and that volume manufacturing by ODX begins once manufacturing protocols are transferred.
2) Dr Colin King is quite reserved and not overtly opportunistic. He will fall in-line with timing of Consortium and Government announcements. I'm not expecting a DF RNS until after the PM's big splash on Tuesday.
3) Clues from Prof Sir John Bell that "gold-standard" may have been reached which fires the starting gun for the politics.
So, on to the politics. These are my guesses:
1) PM Johnson uses his speech on Tuesday as a rallying cry to commence a) Major infrastructure investment in the UK. b) A Churchillian call-to-arms to "defeat this invisible killer".
2) For the latter, he will want to lay out a joined-up strategy to roll-out significant uplift in Test and Trace (to include both rapid antigen and antibody testing) and to signal preparations for eventual vaccine.
3) He will recruit both GCHQ and CONDOR and supercharge PHE to these ends.
4) Johnson will have every excuse to grandstand British innovation. British Fast Testing Consortium and two major vaccine collaborations involving British institutions: GSK/Sanofi and Astrazeneca/University of Oxford.
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From a personal point of view, I am increasingly excited by ODX's prospects. I upped my shareholding on Friday and would move again if there is any weakness over Monday/early Tuesday prior to Johnson's announcement. All above in my opinion only. DYOR. Good luck to all long-holders and keep safe !
Forgive me for sounding bossy, but it's worth reinforcing some crucial points:
1) Science is driven by evidence.
2) Evidence is collected by doing experiments. In Covid-19's case, this means testing.
3) Quality of evidence is crucial, hence the best possible quality experiments (tests) are needed.
4) The experiments must be reproducible. That means repeat, repeat, repeat. Scientists use a concept called sigma which gives a measure of validity or trueness. Sigma depends on the number of experiments (tests) done. The higher the number of tests, the less likely the results may be due to chance alone.
We do know quite a lot about the way SARS-Cov-2 virus spreads. It is mostly through droplets exhaled from infected individuals. Covid-19 differs from the previous infection by the SARS-Cov-1 virus in the Cov-2 mostly infects the upper respiratory tract and is therefore highly transmittable to others. Cov-1, which had a higher mortality, was essentially a lower respiratory tract infection which was less transmittable and the disease died out very quickly.
The immune system is incredibly complicated and there are a huge number of variables which may determine any one individual's response to an infection. Each of our genetic make-up is different and each of us has had a different exposure to infections in our lives. There will be gender, racial, age-determined factors, alongside other present diseases we may have which are called co-morbidities. It is all staggeringly complex ! On the issue of herd immunity, you need a minimum of about 70% of the population to have immunity. On the issue of immunity passports- I agree that we will not get these until we have a vaccine, in which case we will have time-lapsing vaccination certificates. As many of you have said, we do not yet have a clear idea of what level of IgM and IgG antibodies grant immunity and for how long. Again, we can only discern these unknowns with widespread, repeated highest-quality testing.
It's not that scientists are clueless, it's that they know how science works and they will not make false claims or their reputations can be trashed overnight. One problem we have in the UK is that there are only two members of the Cabinet with science degrees, one in chemistry and one in applied physics. That's sad in a very technology-driven society!
As Sir Paul Nurse has so eloquently argued, it's testing and re-testing, aided by tracing, that will remain crucial.
All in my opinion only. DYOR. Keep safe !
Chuggley: Very good points. From every point of view, mathematical and epidemiological, repeated testing will be absolutely crucial. Sir Paul Nurse, former President of the Royal Society and a Nobel Laureate, is very clear on this issue. Indeed, he has, from an early stage in the Covid-19 outbreak, committed the efforts of the Francis Crick Institute in London to testing. Any preparation and roll-out of a vaccine will require widespread and repeated antibody testing.
One caveat in all this is the SARS-Cov-2 virus' propensity for mutation. It has already mutated once in a major and destructive way (for the technically minded, this is called the D614G mutation). Scientists are obviously very aware of this and they may need to retune any antibody and antigen testing to any further mutation. Unlike bacteria, viruses mutate quickly and we may have to be very smart to chase this virus down.
From a political point-of-view, the government may choose to play-down the benefits of repeated testing, particularly for antibodies. The government will not want "immunity parties" springing up !
Good luck everybody. All in my opinion only. DYOR. Keep safe !
Kimbo- In a "chat" with Lloyds staff several days ago, they told me to look in the "Corporate Actions" box from Tuesday, 23rd onwards. You can find this box on the right-hand side of the Lloyds share-dealing main page, once you have signed in. It should give one options on both main and ISA accounts. I believe the allowance is 1-for-20 of any shares you owned at the close-of-play last Friday, 19th at a price of 40 pence per share.
I shall be interested to see if this works to plan when I go in Tuesday ! Theoretically, we should be able to make our claim to the shares on-line. Good luck !
Aklee: As Snowking has suggested, the tests out there at the moment are not very accurate- their sensitivity is low and they are giving false-negatives (the test says "No" when it should say "Yes").
It's interesting that you describe feeling "a bit run down". Some folk, probably including yourself, describe feeling very lethargic as the main symptom.
The government should make an absolute priority of regularly RE-testing NHS staff. The government has been found seriously wanting in its consideration of the importance of front-line staff. There is a huge gap between how government has actually valued NHS staff (not very much) and how the public has realised just how heroic NHS staff are. Better tests and then a willingness to retest, retest, retest is how we are going to get through this.
Recent studies of the 1918/1919 pandemic (H1N1 virus probably transmitted from birds), have shown that people's response to the virus may have depended on what viruses they were exposed to in infancy. It's interesting that some common-cold and seasonal influenza viruses are coronaviruses and these may have modulated our immune response to the current SARS-Cov-2 virus. One of the mysteries of the current virus is that it can lurk in people and return several weeks after someone has apparently recovered and give that person different symptoms. Again, repeat testing should help to spotlight what is going on.
One thing the scientists trying to guide the government know is that we need to be prepared for the Autumn/Winter seasonal influenzas. As you and your partner know, the NHS can come close to being overwhelmed by 'flu outbreaks. Gawd help us if we get a bad bout of 'flu this Winter complicated by Covid-19 outbreaks.
The best we can do at the moment is prepare the best possible tests and then use these tests very widely and repeatedly.
Thanks to you and your partner for being there for us in our hour of need. Every report I have heard has said that NHS staff were just MAGNIFICENT, despite being under huge work stress and knowing that they are totally in the front-line, exposed to an appalling killer. That's George Cross territory in my view, the civilian equivalent to the Victoria Cross. The inscription on the G.C. is timeless: "For Gallantry". Absolutely spot on. Governments will come and go, but the courage, determination and kindness of our NHS heroes will endure. Yes, you are indeed slaying the Dragon for the sake of all of us. Thank you.